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CAMPAIGN REPORT

It's not over in Pennsylvania

Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday leading up to November's election.

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Pennsylvania Senate still a jump ball

Hours after the first and only televised debate in the Pennsylvania Senate race, Democrats launched into hand-wringing mode over the performance of Senate candidate John Fetterman (D). Fetterman has been recovering from a stroke since May, and his campaign had sought to downplay the night even before the candidate took the stage.

And in many ways, some of Democrats' anxieties came to fruition. The debate was seen as a weak performance for Fetterman who at times had difficulty communicating his ideas while using a closed-captioning system. While members of his party were sympathetic to the fact that the candidate was debating amid his recovery, many questioned why he had agreed to the debate at all.

"You can't pretend you didn't see what you saw. You can't wish it or explain it away. You have to dig in and deal with it. It's going to mean they'll turn the heat up with Oz," one Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist told our Al Weaver last week.

Path for Fetterman: But even as Democrats hit the panic button, strategists and experts still believe Fetterman has a shot at the seat, as our Alex Bolton reports today. They say that's because he has a stronger level of support from among his base than Republican contender Mehmet Oz does with his base in the aftermath of a GOP primary that displayed intraparty divisions.

Strategists and experts believe that while it was not a strong performance from Fetterman, it's unclear if people will equate his performance with his electability as a potential senator or even if debates will weigh heavily on voters in general.

"It was just uncomfortable to watch, but I think the reality of the situation is that unfortunately debates just don't have the impact that they maybe had years ago," Vince Galko, former executive director of the Pennsylvania Republican Party in 2005, told Alex.

Toss-up: Eagerly awaited polling released today by Muhlenberg College and Morning Call that surveyed voters before and after the debate conclude it's a jump ball: Fetterman and Oz are tied at 47 percent each.

It's a high stakes Senate race that will prove critical for both Democrats' and Republicans' chances at holding the majority in the upper chamber. Outside spending from both sides has poured into the state and the party's standard bears - former President Trump, President Biden and others - will be in the state this Saturday to campaign for their respective candidates.

COUNTDOWN

Days until the 2022 midterm elections

Democrats play defense in deep-blue New York

In a state that hasn't seen a Republican gubernatorial nominee elected since 2002, the GOP is eager to end New York's deep-blue streak. And the party believes this could be the year as Republican Lee Zeldin, a congressman who serves the 1st Congressional District in New York, has narrowed the gap in public polling against Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.).

Hochul, who became the governor after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned in the wake of a bombshell report that detailed sexual harassment allegations from multiple women, is vying for her first full-term as governor. For Democrats in New York, that would be considered a cake walk.

No shoo-in: But members of her party this year are saying not so fast, arguing she's grappling with a confluence of factors as our Caroline Vakil writes: She hasn't been elected governor before, only lieutenant governor, a lower elected profile; she's battling issues like inflation and crime that have proven especially salient in the state and it's possible the multiple primaries have given Democrats voting fatigue.

"I'm worried. I think every Democrat should be worried," Rich Azzopardi, who served as a spokesman for Cuomo, told Caroline about the state of the gubernatorial race.

Democrats believe Hochul will likely pull off a win in the state given it's blue leanings, but strategists say voters in their party need to remember to vote and not take the race for granted.

"The numbers are such where as long as Democrats go out and vote, they're going to win the election. But they have to actually go and do that," Democratic strategist Chris Coffey noted to Caroline. "And that has been the challenge for the Hochul campaign, has been motivating people and reminding them that they could actually lose and that they need people to turn out and vote."

TRUMP READY TO RAKE IN ELECTION NIGHT WINS

Former President Trump is ready to bask in positive headlines for Republicans should some of his endorsees in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia or Arizona cross the finish line on election night.

As our Brett Samuels writes, many of the former president's endorsed candidates won their GOP primaries in the Senate and even a few in their gubernatorial races. Many of those races are shaping up to go down to the wire, giving the GOP a chance to flip seats like the Senate seats in Georgia and Nevada while retaining party control at the gubernatorial level in places like Arizona.

But should Trump's candidates perform poorly, the former president will likely distance himself from them or blame their losses on other Republican figures like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Either way, strategists believe Trump will try to have his cake and eat it, too.

"You're looking at a lot of key Senate races where his endorsement was the difference and these nominees pulled it out," Sam Nunberg, a former adviser to the Trump 2016 campaign, told Brett. "The trend line right now is he's going to have a lot to be happy about. That doesn't mean he deserves all the credit for the general, but he'll take it."

If Trump has a good night next Tuesday, it could also bode well for the former president's reelection chances should he decide to run again, which it's widely assumed he will.

POLL WATCH

In Kansas: An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released on Wednesday found Gov. Laura Kelly (D) leading Republican gubernatorial candidate Eric Schmidt 46 percent to 43 percent among very likely voters in the state. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In Pennsylvania: A Muhlenberg College-Morning Call survey released on Wednesday found Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz locked in a dead heat at 47 percent each.

Meanwhile, a Monmouth University survey also out on Wednesday found Fetterman leading Oz 48 percent to 44 percent among voters who said they would definitely or probably vote for their respective candidate. That still falls within the poll's margin of error, however, effectively tying the two candidates.

In Wisconsin: An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey out today shows Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) ahead of Democrat Mandela Barnes 50 percent to 46 percent among very likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

AD WATCH

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is continuing to wade into national politics, this time appearing in an ad for Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who is fighting for a third term against independent candidate and former CIA officer Evan McMullin. The 30-second ad was launched by Club for Growth Action on Tuesday and is expected to run on broadcast TV statewide.

"Hi, I'm Gov. Ron DeSantis. Joe Biden's policies have made things worse and to get America on the right path forward we need a Republican majority in the Senate and that's why I'm proud to endorse Mike Lee. Mike always stands firm against the extreme left. His opponent endorsed Biden for president, he's no independent, he's a donkey in sheep's clothing. He'll be a vote for Biden, not for Utah. Please join me and support Mike," DeSantis says in the ad.

That's it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill's Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you tomorrow.