Campaign Report — Midterms scramble GOP's 2024 calculus

View Online    CAMPAIGN REPORT CAMPAIGN REPORT   Midterms scramble GOP's 2024 calculus ©AP Photo/Michael Conroy Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday leading up to November's election.      Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood, Julia Manchester, and Caroline Vakil.  Someone forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here. Republicans rethink 2024 after shock elections  © Associated Press/Rebecca Blackwell The November midterms are complicating the 2024 presidential picture for Republicans as many of former President Trump's candidates fell short in their races while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) — a widely floated 2024 GOP presidential hopeful — handily won his election against Democrat Charlie Crist.   The development comes as Trump is widely anticipated to announce another bid for the White House as soon as next Tuesday.     As our Niall Stanage wrote this morning, it was clear that Trump was one of the losers from Tuesday, with many of his key picks in falling flat. On the other hand, President Biden — whom the White House has reiterated intends to run again in 2024 — was seen as a winner over the better-than-expected Democratic performance.   In the days that followed the midterms, Republicans felt more comfortable publicly criticizing Trump in public and openly suggesting that DeSantis announce a bid soon for president. One prime example was a cover of The New York Post's Wednesday issue which depicted the former president as Humpty Dumpty.     While the Florida governor has dodged questions about whether he'll run, most notably during a gubernatorial debate when Crist pointedly asked him if he would serve his full term in office if reelection, it's clear that his win in the Sunshine State and Trump's troubles in the midterms could force a decision sooner as our Brett Samuels writes.   While one Republican strategist told Brett that DeSantis "must run," others, however, believe he's not the only possible contender in town.   "I would say it's not just as simple as to say now it clearly is DeSantis," Doug Heye, a former Republican National Committee spokesperson, told Brett. "DeSantis had a great night, no doubt about it. So did [Ohio Gov.] Mike DeWine. This should give any Republican who's looking at [2024] a reason to very seriously consider jumping in."  How Pennsylvania landed another Dem senator ©AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar Democrats scored one of their biggest wins hours into the Tuesday midterms as Democrat John Fetterman prevailed in the Pennsylvania Senate race against Republican Mehmet Oz. The seat was seen as one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities, putting them closer to keeping their majority in the upper chamber.   As our Al Weaver writes, members of the party attribute Fetterman's success to a GOP primary that left Oz bruised before Republicans began coalescing around the candidate later and the Democrat's approach to campaigning in both rural and urban areas.   "He campaigned in places Democrats typically don't," T.J. Rooney, a former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and a Democratic operative, told Al. "You combine his reduction of the margins and his work in the collar counties. … It was a combination of those two things that makes the difference."   Republicans also conceded that candidate quality matters — familiar words that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) echoed earlier this year as several GOP candidates in battleground states struggled with negative headlines or scandals.   "I kind of misread the election. I thought this was about issues, but it was more about personalities," Rob Gleason, a former chairman of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, told Al. "Candidates matter. They really matter. … Issues will never override candidates."   Georgia on our minds (again) © Greg Nash If you're looking at Georgia and feeling a sense of déjà vu, you're not the only one. Georgia's Senate race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Republican Herschel Walker is going into overtime after neither one was able to clinch at least half of the votes in the midterms, meaning a Dec. 6 runoff will take place.   "I think we're going to be looking at the most expensive Senate race in the country once this is all said and done," one Republican strategist who has worked on races in Georgia told our Max Greenwood. "There's just too much to lose on both sides."   But what's less clear is if Democrats and Republicans will already know which side will have a clear majority in the Senate going into the runoff, or if Georgia will be the deciding factor once again. Democrats and Republicans are feeling cautiously optimistic that Nevada's Senate race could turn their way, which could make such a scenario more likely.   KEY RACES THAT HAVE YET TO BE CALLED Senate: Arizona, Nevada    House: CO-3, CA-22, CA-47, OR-4, OR-5, OR-6, WA-8    Governors: Arizona, Nevada  That's it for today. 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