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MORNING REPORT

PRESENTED BY PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL

Monday, November 14

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

Democrats bask in their Senate victory

In the intelligence community, analysts refer to the known unknowns. In Washington this week, there are a few.

Congress is back to work today amid a history-making, topsy-turvy midterm election in which control of the House next year remains on a knife's edge, Democrats will hold the Senate and the 2024 presidential contest appears brighter for President Biden, if he opts to run, while GOP losses on Nov. 8 sparked extensive Republican grousing about the undertow tied to former President Trump, who on Sunday continued fundraising around a promised "big announcement" on Tuesday.

Politico: GOP finger-pointing in every direction as party absorbs election losses.

Republican challengers failed to defeat any Democratic incumbents in Senate races, which leaves a Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R) as the final piece of the Senate puzzle. Walker's odds are expected to narrow in a runoff when voters know the overall midterm results and turnout drops, The Hill's Al Weaver reports.

If Georgians reelect Warnock over the Trump-endorsed former football star, Democrats would have a 51-seat majority, which would give Democrats more committee power over investigations, confirmation of the president's nominees and sway to send bills to the Senate floor.

Biden, who for weeks publicly expressed optimism about Democrats' chances of winning despite inflation and national angst, exulted in the voter turnout and ability to trim GOP victories in the House, even if Republicans gain control after the last ballots are counted. "I think it's a reflection of the quality of our candidates" and their emphasis on the party's legislative accomplishments, he told reporters while traveling in Asia on Sunday.

There wasn't anybody who wasn't running on what we did," Biden said. "I feel good, and I'm looking forward to the next couple of years."

The New York Times: How the president's post-election trip turned into a victory lap.

Democrats, who currently hold a majority at 50 seats with Vice President Harris's tie-breaking help, replicated that number for 2023 by reeling in a hard-fought open seat in Pennsylvania with Sen.-elect John Fetterman's (D) victory, and by eking out Democratic wins with Sen. Mark Kelly's reelection in Arizona and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto's close call in Nevada. On Sunday, she told supporters that "Nevadans rejected the far-right politicians working to divide us" (The Hill).

Even if Republicans capture the House to wield divided government next year with promised investigations and legislation to message conservatives' visions for 2024, a Senate controlled by Democrats is a political lifeline for the president. His Senate allies can block GOP legislation adopted in the House and Biden can continue to work with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to confirm judges, defend laws on the books and restock executive vacancies with confirmed personnel.

Democrats next year anticipate that House Republicans, if they hold the majority, will try to leverage the nation's requirement to fund the government and increase a statutory limit on borrowing to pay existing U.S. obligations. Democrats want to remove the threat this year, if possible.

Biden's priorities during the upcoming lame-duck session include funding certainty for the overall government, continued backing for Ukraine against Russia and federal resources for natural disasters, said White House senior adviser Anita Dunn on Sunday (The Hill).

"We have to keep the government open and funded. That is obviously priority number one," Dunn told CBS's "Face the Nation." "It's going to take a little while still for lame-duck priorities to really be set."

The near-term Capitol Hill agenda is expected to include action on bipartisan House-passed legislation to codify protections for same-sex marriage and a bill to overhaul the 135-year-old election law that specifies certification of the Electoral College count. Lawmakers face decisions by a Dec. 16 deadline on the annual defense authorization bill that sets priorities for the Pentagon (The New York Times).

Biden, who will celebrate his 80th birthday on Sunday, added another priority to the list: the administration's student loan debt forgiveness plan, which was blocked last week by a Texas judge and is under appeal. Dunn predicted the administration will prevail (The Hill).

"We're going to try to get as much done as we can to continue to fulfill the agenda," the president told reporters.

Politico: After clinching the Senate, Democrats eye the unthinkable: holding the House.
The Hill: What would it take for Democrats to keep the House?

The New York Times: How the 2022 elections became a squeaker: Interviews with more than 70 current and former officials.
The Atlantic: How did America end up with the Z.O.M.B.I.E. Act? Congress sure does love a snappy acronym.

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Leading the Day

➤ MORE POLITICS

Lawmakers are back in the Capitol this week for a lame-duck session. Party leaders on both sides of the aisle are gearing up for leadership elections, even as their futures remain up in the air.

With Republicans currently favored to regain control of the House, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is trying to position himself as the next Speaker. McCarthy has been eyeing the job and campaigning for the role for years. The possibility of a narrow majority means he would need support from virtually every GOP colleague.

Some House Freedom Caucus members are outright opposed to McCarthy, while others are demanding concessions from him that would greatly water down his power as Speaker, giving them outsize leverage if the GOP does control the chamber (NBC News).

The red wave that McCarthy projected but that never materialized is also cause for criticism, The Hill's Emily Brooks reports, likely leading to friction during the GOP's House leadership elections, which are scheduled on Tuesday.

"This is like the epitome of overpromising and under-delivering, which is something that you do not want to do in politics," a senior GOP leadership staff member told The Hill. "This is seriously disappointing, and it will have wide implications for people in leadership."

Some Senate Republicans, including Sens. Ron Johnson (Wis.), Mike Lee (Utah) and Rick Scott (Fla.), are circulating a letter pressing colleagues to back a postponement of the conference's leadership election, currently scheduled on Wednesday.

The GOP's decision about whether to hand Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) another term as minority leader comes as allies of McConnell and Scott, who chaired the Senate GOP's campaign arm, trade blame for the party's poor midterm showing (Politico and The Wall Street Journal). Scott again called for a delay of the elections Sunday, saying it wouldn't make sense to have them this week, and that "a lot of people" have asked him to run for minority leader. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Sunday tweeted in support of delaying the leadership votes until after the Georgia runoff (CNN).

CNN: "We need to have a real discussion": GOP leaders brace for tense talks after disappointing election results.

House Democrats are scheduled to hold their leadership elections on Nov. 30, though with control of the chamber undecided, the process is frozen. None of those eyeing leadership posts is expected to move before the majority outcome is certain (Politico).

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Sunday on CNN that members of her caucus have been asking her to "consider" running for the Speakership again, but that any decision to run for leadership depends on her family and party colleagues.

"I'm not asking anybody – people are campaigning, and that's a beautiful thing," Pelosi told CNN's Dana Bash. "And I'm not asking anyone for anything. My members are asking me to consider doing that. But, again, let's just get through the election."

The Wall Street Journal: Pelosi, 82, is mum about her future plans after Democrats' strong midterm performance. "I'm not making any comments until this election is finished and we have a little more time to go," she told ABC News on Sunday. "I wish it would be faster, but it isn't."
The Hill: Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) sidesteps questions about leadership bids for herself, Pelosi.

Senate Democrats are expected to wait until the week of Dec. 5 to hold their leadership elections, which means they will likely know the results of the Georgia runoff before casting their ballots (The Hill).

Elsewhere in the Senate, Republicans were singing the praises of Rep. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) for much of Biden's first two years in office as the senator held Biden's Build Back Better agenda in limbo, but GOP lawmakers say Manchin will be a top target in 2024 and they're going to go all out to knock him out of office, writes The Hill's Alexander Bolton. Manchin has tried to extend the olive branch to Republicans by pledging to work with them on permitting reform and Social Security and Medicare solvency, but those grand bipartisan ambitions will be endangered by the full-court Republican press to flip his seat in a state that Trump won with 70 percent of the vote in 2020.

Trump, meanwhile, is moving ahead with what is billed as a likely 2024 campaign launch this week despite pleas for a postponement from some of his closest advisers, writes The Hill's Brett Samuels. While the former president believes an early declaration of his candidacy would clear the field of rivals and lay a marker for his supporters to rally behind him, such an announcement would not be without consequences for the former president and the Republican Party.

But in private conversations, a growing number of Republicans are trying to seize what they believe may be their best opportunity to sideline the former president and usher in a new generation of party leaders (The Washington Post).

One of those is the GOP's big midterm winner, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who handily won reelection by a double-digit margin. Allies are already seizing the moment to position him for a 2024 run. An outside adviser to DeSantis told The Washington Post about getting numerous calls from donors with one message: "Ron needs to run."

CNN: Tiffany Trump's wedding assembles a family divided over its patriarch's political future.
NBC News: Inside the Justice Department's decision on whether to charge Trump in Mar-a-Lago case.
The New York Times: Trump angst grips Republicans (again) as 2024 announcement looms.
NBC News analysis: Did Trump hurt Republicans in the 2022 elections? The numbers point to yes.

Meanwhile, Biden says he has yet to make a formal decision about seeking reelection. But aides are reportedly already working to find the best ways to fend off attacks and neutralize voters' concerns about his age and health (The Washington Post).

The Hill: Ranking the Democrats who could run for president in 2024.

Despite widespread worry about election deniers winning their races in states across the country, and in some cases, themselves becoming administrators of upcoming elections, voters roundly rejected them in the midterms.

All but one of the "America First" candidates for secretary of state who espoused conspiracy theories about the 2020 election were defeated, The New York Times reports, with the exception of Diego Morales, a Republican in deep-red Indiana. And election deniers lost their races in all six battleground states where Trump sought to reverse his loss in the 2020 election (The Washington Post).

The candidates have largely accepted defeat, either with no statements or concessions to opponents, further quelling fears of possible mayhem (Politico).

The Washington Post is tracking the fates of election deniers up and down the ballot in an interactive graphic.

Progressives finally have reason to celebrate after the midterm elections, write The Hill's Hanna Trudo and Mychael Schnell. For months, moderates picked off primary challengers from the left ahead of the midterms, leaving just a handful of liberal candidates to compete against Republicans in the fall. But after a surprisingly strong night, progressives are already discussing ways to maximize their expanded bench on Capitol Hill.

"It's time for Democrats, especially progressive Democrats, to take attendance," said Michael Starr Hopkins, a Democratic operative who's been outspoken about what he sees as the party's shortcomings. "They have power and they should use it to help their constituents. Period."

Progressives' strong midterm showing has inspired new confidence on the left about what may be possible in the future, and a signal for moderates that their flank is electorally viable and even preferable in some parts of the country (The Hill).

The Democrats' surprisingly strong showing in the midterm elections has raised a familiar question: Did the pollsters get it wrong again?

"Overall, it was definitely a good night for pollsters and I would, in particular, say traditional pollsters," Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, told The Hill. "In those final weeks, a lot of polls from those credible, reputable, traditional pollsters were met with skepticism and/or disbelief when they were showing better numbers for Democrats."

After skepticism in polls reached a fever pitch in 2016 when Trump's victory pulled the rug out from those in the media, pollsters argue that outliers happen and caution that polls are meant to be a snapshot in time, not a prediction (The Hill).

The Hill's Niall Stanage rounded up five lessons from the midterm exit polls.

The Hill: Low-income voters may have bolstered Democrats' surprising 2022 performance.
Politico: Voters of color did move to the right — just not at the rates predicted.
The Hill: Young women broke hard for Democrats in the midterms.
Axios: Midterm stunner shows extremes don't pay.

➤ ADMINISTRATION

Biden greeted Chinese President Xi Jinping during the annual G20 summit today at a hotel in Bali, where the two presidents walked across a hallway to shake hands in front of a row of flags from the United States and China.

The president on Sunday said he planned for their meeting a belief that they know each other from previous meetings, leaving "very little misunderstanding" and "never any miscalculation."

"I think that's critically important in our relationship," Biden told reporters before departing Cambodia after participating in a separate summit sponsored by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

South China Morning Post: Biden, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang had a brief closed-door encounter at ASEAN on Sunday.

Despite the president's strengthened footing after a positive midterm election outcome for Democrats at home, the White House downplayed expectations of a breakthrough during Biden's first in-person meeting with Xi during his presidency.

A key test for Biden is if he can use his strengthened position to reduce tensions in the bilateral relationship, according to his advisers. If the U.S. is to curb threats of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, deter North Korean missile launches and help end Russia's war with Ukraine, Xi's cooperation is needed (NBC News).

A successful meeting would be one that halts freefall into all-out conflict and results in the two sides opening more lines of communication at lower levels of government, Biden administration officials said. They also hope the two leaders come away with a better sense of each other's non-negotiable positions and "red lines."

CNN analysis: Biden and Xi return to the table with high stakes — and low expectations. The United States and China disagree on just about every major issue, including Taiwan, Russia's aims in Ukraine, North Korea, the transfer of technology, the shape of the world order and human rights.

Bloomberg News: Biden's chip curbs outdo Trump in forcing the world to align on China.

"We just got to figure out where the red lines are and what we — what are the most important things to each of us going into the next two years," Biden said before arriving Sunday in Indonesia.

Reuters: Russia on Sunday said it rejects the G-20 focus on security rather than socio-economic concerns during a gathering this week set to be dominated by Western criticism of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is attending the summit in place of President Vladimir Putin.

Virtual Event Invite

Gen Z: Writing Their Own Rules, Wednesday, Nov. 16 at 5 p.m. ET / LIVE IN D.C. AND STREAMING NATIONALLY

COVID-19 may be the defining experience for Generation Z, shaping its outlook for decades to come. "Zoomers," those 70 million young Americans born between 1997 and 2012, missed out on experiences, friendships and milestones over the past two years — changing their outlook and expectations on social issues, education, mental health, jobs and the economy. "The Gen Z Historian" Kahlil Greene, author and pollster John Della Volpe, White House Director of Digital Strategy Rob Flaherty, Zfluence founder Ava McDonald and more join The Hill to examine the experience of America's youth, where their common ground lies and their impact on the future. RSVP today.

In Focus / Sharp Takes

➤ INTERNATIONAL

America's allies in Europe are breathing sighs of relief as the U.S. midterm contests lurch to a close, write The Hill's Laura Kelly and Alex Gangitano, as they believe slimmer margins of control in Congress will not jeopardize American support to Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. Fears that a larger Republican majority would move the country back into the isolationist mindset of the Trump presidency were quashed, but the international community will be closely watching what a likely divided government means for Biden's leadership role among allies.

Ukrainian authorities began restoring essential services in the city of Kherson after Russia retreated from the city this weekend, leaving it without electricity, heat, water or cellphone service. While Ukrainian troops were greeted by jubilant crowds upon their arrival, a municipal official said the humanitarian situation in the city remained critical.

"There's a critical lack of water in the city," Roman Holovnya, an adviser to Kherson's mayor, told local television. "There's a lack of medicines, there's a lack of bread, because it can't be baked as there's no electricity."

He added that around a quarter of the city's prewar population of 320,000 remain in Kherson (The Wall Street Journal and Reuters). Meanwhile Russian attacks have turned the eastern region of Donetsk into a "hell," said President Volodymyr Zelensky, referring to one of the war's most entrenched battlegrounds (The New York Times).

Zelensky on Monday visited Kherson, where he addressed Ukrainian troops and thanked NATO and other allies for their continuing support (Reuters).

"We are moving forward," he said. "We are ready for peace, peace for all our country."

In Turkey, six people were killed and 81 others wounded on Sunday during an explosion in a busy pedestrian street in Istanbul. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said the bomb attack "smells like terrorism" (Reuters).

In Egypt, the United Nations climate conference COP27 heads into its final week, with lots still undecided. Reuters reports that frustrations were starting to flare as negotiators worried about resolving myriad details in time for a deal by the summit's scheduled close on Friday.

In Israel, President Isaac Herzog asked newly reelected Benjamin Netanyahu to form a new government on Sunday, officially ushering in the country's most right-wing government to date (CNN).

Opinion

Here's how Congress can make the lame-duck session a mighty one, by The Washington Post editorial board. https://wapo.st/3O4dmcn
Republicans really do have plenty to celebrate, by Ramesh Ponnuru, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3WTWoS1

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Where and When

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The House is back in Washington and meets at 2 p.m.

The Senate meets at 3 p.m. and resumes consideration of the nomination of María del R. Antongiorgi-Jordán to be a U.S. District Court judge for the District of Puerto Rico.

The president is in Bali and will hold a bilateral meeting with President Joko Widodo of Indonesia at 12:30 p.m. local time to discuss the upcoming Group of 20 Summit and the U.S.-Indonesia Strategic Partnership. Biden will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at 5:30 p.m. local time at the Mulia Hotel in Bali. Biden will deliver remarks and take questions at 9:30 p.m. local time at Bali's Grand Hyatt Hotel.

Vice President Harris will ceremonially swear-in Candace Bond to be U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago at 2 p.m. in the vice president's ceremonial office.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is with the president at the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Bali where she joins the president at the G20 summit.

First lady Jill Biden today launches National Apprenticeship Week with a trip to Chicago, accompanied by Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Labor Secretary Marty Walsh and Education Secretary Miguel Cardona. They will visit Rolling Meadows High School in Rolling Meadows, Ill., at noon to meet with students in the school's Career Pathways program. They will discuss apprenticeship programs in Chicago at 1:45 p.m. CT with the Chicago Apprentice Network and the Business Roundtable.

Elsewhere

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH

A cruise ship with hundreds of COVID-19-positive passengers docked in Sydney, Australia, after being hit by a wave of infections. The Majestic Princess cruise ship was about halfway through a 12-day voyage when an outbreak of cases was noticed, Carnival Australia President Marguerite Fitzgerald told reporters Saturday.

The ship had 4,600 passengers and crew on board at the time, and after mass testing 3,300 passengers, around 800 tested positive for Covid-19, as did a small number of crew, Fitzgerald said (CNN).

NPR: New omicron subvariants now dominant in the U.S., raising fears of a winter surge.
The San Francisco Chronicle: Is there a connection between COVID-19 booster side effects and body size?

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,074,485. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,344 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

The Closer

And finally … 🌈 Let's start the week with rainbows — the real deal.

University of Hawaiʻi scientists report that climate change presents one lovely silver lining: A warming planet with less snow means more rain, and with that atmospheric moisture comes more refracted sunlight, and thus extra rainbows (Forbes).

The study's authors, whose work was published this month in the journal Global Environmental Change, estimate that by the year 2100, the average land location on Earth will experience about 5 percent more days with rainbows than at the beginning of the 21st century.

"We often study how climate change directly affects people's health and livelihoods, for instance via the occurrence of heat stroke during climate change-enhanced heat waves," said researcher Camilo Mora. However, few researchers previously explored how climate change might affect the aesthetic qualities of the environment. It turns out that islands, such as the Hawaiian islands, present an ideal opportunity to model future rainbow viewing opportunities under projections of a changing climate.