The Hill's Morning Report — Does Jordan have the votes?

Presented by Electronic Payments Coalition — The House will usher in a now-familiar proceeding today as lawmakers prepare to vote on a Speaker nominee.

View Online  MORNING REPORT PRESENTED BY Tuesday, October 17  by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch Tuesday, October 17  by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch © The Associated Press / J. Scott Applewhite | Speaker candidate Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) at the Capitol Friday. Does Jordan have the votes?    The House will usher in a now-familiar proceeding today as lawmakers prepare to vote on a Speaker nominee.     Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who clinched the nomination for the post Friday, watched some of the opposition to his candidacy crumble Monday after a tense weekend where his chances at the gavel stood in question. Four key lawmakers who signaled opposition to Jordan last week fell like a set of dominos, giving Jordan a significant boost ahead of an expected floor vote today.    A SEA CHANGE: The support Jordan clinched Monday is a remarkable development after two weeks of turbulence in the House GOP following the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), which left many lawmakers and outside observers skeptical Republicans could coalesce around any candidate. But Jordan now seems to be edging closer and closer to the necessary 217 votes amid a pressure campaign by his allies to win support for the conservative Republican and ally of former President Trump (The Hill).    "My gut tells me we're somewhere south of 10 who are still being recalcitrant," Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told conservative radio host Erick Erickson on Monday when asked about the opposition to Jordan. McCarthy on Monday also expressed his optimism for Jordan's prospects (The Hill).     Jordan was able to recruit House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (Ala.) along with Reps. Ann Wagner (Mo.), Ken Calvert (Calif.) and Vern Buchanan (Fla.) to his cause, despite past statements indicating they would not do so. In total, Jordan can only afford to lose four Republican votes, assuming full attendance.    But Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Carlos A. Giménez (R-Fla.), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Ken Buck (R-Colo.) all indicated Monday they still oppose Jordan, putting his math on shaky ground. And GOP sources told Axios there's a high possibility Jordan will lose more support if the vote goes to a second ballot.    I'm feeling good," Jordan told The Hill's Mychael Schnell Monday, vowing to take the contest to the floor at noon regardless of whether he's formally landed 217 votes. If Jordan clinches the gavel today, it will cap an extraordinary rise in the House that propelled him from a right-wing rebel on the fringes of the Republican party and founder of the House Freedom Caucus, to the post that is second in line to the presidency. His ascent would be the clearest indicator yet of how far House Republicans have moved to the right in recent years, and how strong a grip Trump, who counts Jordan among his closest allies, still has on the party (The New York Times).    A CHAMBER IN PARALYSIS: Working in Jordan's favor is exasperation with the internal GOP turbulence that is keeping the House in stasis as war breaks out in Israel and Gaza, as well as the threat of moderate Republicans working with Democrats to exert control over the Speakership. Even Senate Republicans, embarrassed by the prolonged stalemate in the House over electing a new Speaker, are warming up to the idea of Jordan taking the job in hopes that he'll be able to corral conservative rebels (The Hill).    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Monday the Senate must take the lead in passing aid for Israel, adding he will work with the Biden administration to craft an emergency supplemental package to provide Israel with the "tools it needs to defend itself." That includes "military assistance, intelligence assistance, diplomatic assistance" and humanitarian assistance (The Hill).    🦠 Newly appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) tested positive for COVID-19 and will be absent from Washington this week (The Hill).    3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY Lawmakers and the Biden administration conferred last week about a roughly $2 billion aid package for Israel. The administration has not been public about its pending supplemental request, which is expected to go to Capitol Hill later this week, possibly including Ukraine and Taiwan assistance. What you need to know: The big mistakes people make in Medicare — and how to avoid them. In an outcome important to Ukraine and Europe, a majority of voters in Poland on Monday sent conservative nationalists into the minority in parliament after eight years and supported the centrist opposition. Voter turnout was the highest in Poland since the fall of communism in 1989, according to the National Election Commission.  Leading the Day © The Associated Press / Hatem Ali | Palestinians and many others, including Americans, waited Monday to try to leave Gaza by crossing to the Egyptian side at theRafah border. The gate was closed. ADMINISTRATION & MIDDLE EAST During the long days since the surprise Hamas attacks across the Gaza border, expectations of Israel's move into Gaza to "eradicate" the terrorist group spawned diplomatic negotiations, unrest in the region and international unease about a rising death toll among civilians.     A temporary ceasefire? No go. A humanitarian corridor? It has not happened. An international emergency meeting? The European Union will hold such a conference today. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to be in Israel today, with plans to visit Egypt at some later point.     President Biden accepted an invitation from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit Israel on Wednesday, first reported in Israeli media and later announced by the White House. It's a high-risk option with pros and cons. Biden is firmly behind Israel and says Hamas "barbarians" must be dealt with, but the watchword has become "restraint."     The United States and Israel "have agreed to develop a plan that will enable humanitarian aid from donor nations and multilateral organizations to reach civilians in Gaza," Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Tel Aviv Monday.    The president continued to work the phones, speaking Monday with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani of Iraq and President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt, according to the White House.     The Hill: The White House walks a fine line as Israel readies a military offensive. The Wall Street Journal: The Pentagon has selected troops currently stationed in the Middle East and Europe to prepare for potential deployment in noncombat support roles to help Israel. The New York Times: Yahya Sinwar is the hard-line Hamas leader in Gaza known among Israelis as "the face of death."  'PRICE WILL BE HIGH': Blinken, who returned to Israel Monday after talks with leaders in six Arab countries, met with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who said, "This will be a long war. The price will be high, but we are going to win for Israel, for the Jewish people and for the values that both countries believe in."     The Health Ministry in Gaza said on Monday that 2,808 people had been killed and more than 9,700 wounded since Oct. 7. In Israel, the death toll from the attacks has reached at least 1,400. Some 289 Israeli soldiers are dead, according to Israeli officials.     CLOSED GATEWAY TO ESCAPE: Foreign nationals eager to evacuate Israel through Egypt found its Rafah gate, which many were told would be open to their exodus, closed on Monday. It created frustration among crowds of anxious international passport holders and dual nationals, some with babies and children in tow, including Americans — all with nowhere to go.     The fate of U.S. hostages seized by Hamas fighters and taken to Gaza remains publicly unknown. It's a grave challenge for Biden, who has spoken with anxious U.S. families and vowed in a speech to do everything possible, with every expert at the U.S. government's disposal, to try to locate and rescue a handful of those who are alive. Israel now says a total of 199 people of various nationalities, including U.S. citizens, were taken captive by Hamas, a higher number than previously reported.     A masked Hamas spokesman, identifying himself as Abu Ubaida, said in a video posted to the group's social media channels that 22 Israeli hostages had been killed by Israeli airstrikes in Gaza and the group continues to hold between 200 and 250 hostages, claims that could not be independently confirmed, The New York Times reported.    "They eat what we eat," Ubaida said. "They drink what we drink. They are living today in the same conditions that we live here in Gaza."    The New York Times "The Daily" podcast: Voices from Gaza, Palestinians Abdallah Hasaneen and Wafa Elsaka.  Where and When The House convenes at noon for a Speaker vote.    The Senate meets at 10 a.m.    The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10:30 a.m. Biden will depart for Israel later today, for arrival Wednesday. He will then travel to Amman, Jordan.   Vice President Harris will visit Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff, Ariz., to continue her "Fight for Our Freedoms" college tour to mobilize young people with a moderated conversation at 12:30 p.m. MST. She will return to Washington tonight.    The secretary of state is in Israel.    First lady Jill Biden will host a 5 p.m. White House reception to celebrate the United States's return to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).    Content from our sponsor: Electronic Payments Coalition Hands Off My Rewards, Congress: Reject Durbin-Marshall  Congress is considering harmful credit card routing legislation that would decimate credit card rewards that help families pay for everyday goods. Visit handsoffmyrewards.com to learn more.   Zoom In © The Associated Press / Charlie Neibergall | Republican presidential candidate Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.) in Newton, Iowa, on Oct. 12. POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS The Federal Election Commission's third-quarter filing deadline Sunday revealed an inside look at the crowded GOP presidential field, the longshot White House contenders and the current and former commanders in chief — Biden and former President Trump — racing to win the Oval Office in 2024. The Hill's Julia Mueller breaks down five key takeaways from the filings.     The third-quarter receipts for Biden's principal campaign committee — sitting at roughly $24.8 million — edge out Trump's $24.5 million and leads the rest of the major names in the White House race. The third quarter has also seen a historic two new criminal indictments for the former president, but Trump has appeared to capitalize off his ongoing legal battles. His principal campaign committee reported bringing in $24.5 million during the third quarter of 2023, ending with more than $37.5 million cash on hand. Meanwhile, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), long considered Trump's closest competitor, reported raising $15 million between his campaign committee, leadership PAC and joint fundraising committee during the third quarter. The governor's campaign said $5 million of that figure can only be used during the primary (The Washington Post).     Among the GOP contenders, the main super PAC supporting Sen. Tim Scott's (S.C.) presidential campaign abruptly announced to donors that it was canceling millions of dollars in television ads it had reserved this fall, writing that Trump's strength was so ingrained that additional advertising would currently make little difference.    "We aren't going to waste our money when the electorate isn't focused or ready for a Trump alternative," Rob Collins, a Republican strategist who is co-chair of the super PAC, wrote in a blunt memo, The New York Times reports. "We have done the research. We have studied the focus groups. We have been following Tim on the trail. This electorate is locked up and money spent on mass media isn't going to change minds until we get a lot closer to voting."    Both Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) saw significant drops in their respective third-quarter fundraising, viewed as a challenge for each. Both seats are in play in 2024; neither incumbent has formally declared a bid for reelection (Politico).    Tensions over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are boiling over in the Republican presidential primary as the contenders issue responses to the escalating conflict. The Hill's Julia Manchester reports that on Saturday, DeSantis said the U.S. should not take Palestinian refugees from Gaza because they "are all antisemitic." Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley responded to DeSantis's remarks, noting in an interview on CNN that "you can separate civilians from terrorists… but right now we can never take our eyes off of the terrorists."   2024 ROUNDUP The Supreme Court ruled Monday that two internet sellers of gun parts must comply with administration rules on ghost guns, which are firearms difficult to trace because they lack serial numbers.  The third GOP presidential debate will be hosted by NBC News in Miami on Nov. 8.   The Biden campaign Monday joined Truth Social, the platform founded by Trump, pushing its message on a site largely dominated by the former president and his followers.  Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett said Monday that it would be a good idea for the nation's highest court to adopt a formal code of conduct, but the nine justices already agree that they should hold themselves to the highest ethical standards possible.    Elsewhere © The Associated Press / Charlie Neibergall | Former President Trump campaigned Monday in Iowa. TRUMP WORLD A federal judge said Monday that she would impose a gag order barring Trump from attacking future witnesses in his election interference case, as well as prosecutors, court staff and their families. District Judge Tanya Chutkan said Trump's status as a candidate did not give him carte blanche to level a "smear campaign" against those involved in the case, saying that "First Amendment protections yield to the administration of justice and to the protection of witnesses."    The request to Chutkan presented a conflict between the scope of Trump's First Amendment rights and fears that he could — intentionally or not — spur his supporters to violence. She did not grant an order with the breadth requested by the Justice Department and special counsel Jack Smith in September, declining to limit any speech attacking her or the District of Columbia, saying the court would use the jury selection process to ensure it does not pick jurors swayed by Trump's repeated attacks on the city. The extent of the order was not entirely clear; Chutkan said she would describe only the "contours" of her decision Monday, but she clarified the order would not stop Trump from attacking Biden or claiming during his 2024 campaign the prosecution is politically motivated (The Hill).    "This is not about whether I like the language Mr. Trump uses," Chutkan said. "This is about language that dangers the administration of justice."  The Hill: Here are five takeaways as Trump faces a gag order in the election interference case. The Associated Press: Lawyers, Trump and money: The ex-president spends millions in donor cash on attorneys as legal woes grow. The Hill: A Trump lawyer told a London judge Monday the former president plans to prove that "shocking and scandalous claims" about him in the so-called Steele Dossier, a largely discredited report by a former British spy, were false and harmed his reputation. LABOR Ford Executive Chairman Bill Ford on Monday warned that an ongoing strike by the United Auto Workers (UAW) threatens the future livelihood of the company as well as the American automotive industry. Ford, the great-grandson of founder Henry Ford, pleaded with union members and leaders to work with the company, instead of against it, to reach a tentative deal to put an "end to this acrimonious round of talks."   Reuters: The UAW strike could upend General Motors and Ford's financial strategies. The New York Times: As the actors' strike wears on, some are turning to a familiar fallback job. The Hollywood cliché of performers working as servers in restaurants is back. About 34,000 U.S. autoworkers with Detroit's three major auto manufacturers — or roughly 23 percent of UAW members covered by the expired contracts with the Detroit automakers — are currently on strike.     UAW President Shawn Fain last week said the union has entered a "new phase" of the targeted strikes in which it would no longer pre-announce the work stoppages, as it had been (The Wall Street Journal and CNBC).    Opinion Mr. Biden goes to the Middle East, by Andreas Kluth, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion.  Piling horror upon horror, by Michelle Goldberg, columnist, The New York Times.   The Closer © The Associated Press / Matthew Mead | Dried pasta in 2016. And finally … 🍝 It's National Pasta Day! Celebrate with a big bowl of starchy goodness and contribute to the roughly 5.95 billion pounds of pasta eaten in the United States each year. Whether paired with meatballs and marinara, baked into a traditional Italian lasagna or transformed into quintessentially American mac and cheese, pasta has become a staple in homes across the country ever since Thomas Jefferson introduced it to the country, way back in 1789.     The nation leading per capita pasta consumption in 2022 will come as a surprise to few: Italians, on average, ate more than 50 pounds of the floury food last year. In the United States, by comparison, people consumed on average 19 pounds of pasta in the same year.    What pasta shapes reign supreme? A 2013 Barilla World Pasta Day survey found that Americans' three favorite pasta varieties are, in order, spaghetti, penne and rotini.  Stay Engaged We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us X, formerly known as on Twitter: (@asimendinger & @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends! 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