By Chris Stirewalt | Friday, July 4 |
By Chris Stirewalt Friday, July 4 |
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Discontentment, democracy and the promise of Independence Day |
On the menu: Concern over ICE tactics; Tillis blows up N.C. Senate race; SupCo may throw parties a lifeline; Greene with envy; Hacking into the job market It should surprise no one that democracy isn't very popular these days. Watching Congress cough up a budget bill like an asthmatic house cat with a hairball doesn't exactly fill one with confidence. A recent Pew Research survey looked at how satisfied residents of nations around the globe were with "the way democracy is working in their country." Notably, among the residents of 12 mostly wealthy, mostly stable nations — Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States — 64 percent of adults said they were dissatisfied, compared to 35 percent who were satisfied. On the one hand, so what? As Winston Churchill said, "democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried." People don't like the way democratic government works, but they're not really supposed to. Democracy is like a lot of good things in life: more valuable for what it prevents rather than what it delivers. If the alternative to self-government is tyranny, then imperfect democracy is a gift to be cherished. That's why Americans should feel more than a little superior on this, the 249th birthday of our democracy — the oldest unbroken one in the world. And yet, compared with the residents of other wealthy nations, Americans are feeling pretty lousy about government by "We the people." The same survey found that 64 percent of Americans were dissatisfied, dramatically worse than the countries with which we share the most in common: 23 points worse than Canada, 11 points worse than the United Kingdom, 23 points worse than Germany and 23 points worse than Australia. The trend in the U.S. and among other wealthy nations generally, though, has been downward. In 2017, the average for America's cohort was 49 percent satisfied, 49 percent dissatisfied. Eight years later, it's a spread of almost 30 points. Every country has its own reasons for its frustrations with democracy, including those places like Hungary and South Korea, which of late have been struggling mightily to maintain some kind system that is both functional and democratic. But in the United States, the richest, freest, safest nation in the history of the world, it doesn't seem right. Why does the apex nation feel so crummy about its system of government? Part of it is no doubt a version of affluenza in which Americans have come to see self-government in a Madisonian democracy based on equal rights and equal protections as the default. While we may be the stark exception to the great powers of history, it is normal to us. Like all good things in great supply, we take liberty for granted. But it may also be a misunderstanding of cause and effect. The temptation for Americans for more than a century has been to think that we have freedom and self-government because we are rich and powerful. The truth is that we are rich and powerful because we have freedom and self-government. America is now in its 250th year. One year from today in Philadelphia, we will celebrate that grand achievement: truly the envy of the world. And when we do, one suspects Americans will still be unhappy with their system of government. And again, how could you blame them? Our politics are rotten and our government can barely perform its basic duties. National elections have turned into battles royale in which winners get to spend two or four years trying to punish the other side only for the other side to then get its turn with the shillelagh. Back and forth we go, each time a little meaner and a little more dysfunctional. It should be remembered that this is a perversion of our system, not the system itself. Unlike the residents of other nations that built their systems out of local custom grafted with American-style democracy, this is our own birthright. The declaration made in Philadelphia 249 years ago today that all men are created equal is the inheritance of every American citizen, wherever she or he was born. When we are dissatisfied with our democracy, we don't need a different sort of government, we have to go back to what made us great in the first place. We have the source code if we are willing to reclaim it. To that end, I'd ask that you take a moment in today's celebration to remember the gift that we have been given. What President Calvin Coolidge said in speech celebrating the 150th anniversary of the founding is just as true today: "No advance, no progress can be made beyond these propositions. If anyone wishes to deny their truth or their soundness, the only direction in which he can proceed historically is not forward, but backward toward the time when there was no equality, no rights of the individual, no rule of the people. Those who wish to proceed in that direction can not lay claim to progress. They are reactionary. Their ideas are not more modern, but more ancient, than those of the Revolutionary fathers." Amen, amen. Happy Independence Day. May your barbecues, like this newsletter, be whole hog. [Make sure to watch a special episode of The Hill Sunday with Chris Stirewalt this Sunday at 10 a.m. ET on NewsNation and local CW stations as guests including Adm. William McRaven and Prof. Robert P. George explore practical patriotism for America's 250th year.] |
Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions & amplifications: WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com. If you'd like to be considered for publication, please include your name and hometown. If you don't want your comments to be publicized, please specify. |
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| Net Score: -11.2 points [Average includes: Marist College 43% approve - 52% disapprove; Emerson College 45% approve - 46% disapprove; Quinnipiac University 41% approve - 54% disapprove Ipsos/Reuters 41% approve - 57% disapprove Gallup 40% approve - 57% disapprove] |
MAJORITY CONCERNED ABOUT ICE RAIDS |
How would you describe the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in enforcing immigration laws? Do you think they have: Gone too far: 54% About right: 26% Not gone far enough: 18% [Marist College poll of 1,381 adults nationally, June 23- June 25] |
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Last days of the Raj in Magazineland |
NYT: "As the longtime editor in chief of Vanity Fair, Graydon Carter was accustomed to big expenses … But in early 2001, he wondered if he had gone too far. Annie Leibovitz, the magazine's chief photographer, had run up a $475,000 bill on a cover shoot involving 10 world-famous actresses — Nicole Kidman, Penélope Cruz, Sophia Loren — and an elaborate stage set, complete with a mantelpiece and a genuine John Singer Sargent painting, which was flown from Los Angeles to New York to London. ('It was like Vietnam, the expenses,' Mr. Carter recalled.) Now, he needed to tell his boss, S.I. Newhouse Jr., the billionaire owner and patron of Condé Nast, about the latest line item on his tab. … 'Well, I think we just shot the most expensive cover in magazine history.' A pause. 'What's the good news?' 'It looks like a $475,000 cover.' It was the equivalent of roughly $850,000 today. Mr. Newhouse was fine with it." |
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Tillis's exit supercharges N.C. Senate race: The Hill: "Sen. Thom Tillis's (R-N.C.) decision to not seek reelection to another term has scrambled the field for what will be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country next year. The North Carolina Senate race was already going to be one of the most-discussed contests of the 2026 midterms as one of the two main targets for Democrats hoping to at least narrow the Republican majority in the body. But with Tillis out, the race appears set to become even more hotly contested as big names on both sides of the aisle are floated as potential candidates, including Lara Trump and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D). ... 'I think it's changed the calculus tremendously because … Tillis was going to be not impossible but difficult to beat,' said North Carolina Democratic strategist Doug Wilson. … Democrats previously acknowledged the challenge they would face in defeating Tillis for a third term but expressed hope, especially if the popular former two-term Gov. Cooper enters the race. Cooper has been considering a bid, but the North Carolina-based NBC affiliate WRAL reported that he won't decide for at least a few more weeks." |
Sherrill opens big lead in New Jersey as Trump influence looms large: New Jersey Globe: "Democrat Mikie Sherrill has a 20-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor's race, with President Donald Trump figuring prominently in voters' decisions, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released this morning. Sherrill leads Ciattarelli, 51%-31%, with 13% undecided. When leaners are included, Sherrill's lead grows to 56%-35%. … More than half of New Jersey (52%) say Trump's presidency is a major factor in who they'll support for governor, while 18% call it a minor factor and 30% say it won't affect them at all. 'Trump's influence appears to be more of a benefit to Sherrill right now, given key groups more likely to support her are also more likely to claim the president is a factor in their vote choice, while those more supportive of Ciattarelli do not.' … 'While Trump's endorsement may have helped in the primaries, these numbers are an early sign that the endorsement may play differently when it comes to the general.'" |
Super PACs beware: SupCo could restore flow of campaign cash to parties: Washington Post: "The Supreme Court will hear a significant campaign finance case next term that will examine whether it violates the Constitution to restrict the amount of money that political parties can spend in coordination with individual candidates on advertising and other communications. The case has the potential to reshape election spending in a major way. The restrictions being challenged were established in the early 1970s during the Nixon era to try to prevent donors from contributing to parties as a way to skirt limits on direct giving to candidates. Richard H. Pildes, a New York University law professor, said ending the limits could shift the balance of financial might from outside groups that have come to dominate campaign spending to political parties that were once the major players. 'It would at a minimum open up more opportunities for political parties to work with their campaigns,' Pildes said. 'More expansively, it could lead to political parties regaining some of the ground they lost to the Super PACs over the last 20 years.'" |
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Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan to run as an independent in attempt to succeed Whitmer — NBC News |
Dems take the safe bet in Virginia, picking former Connolly aide to succeed late congressman — Associated Press |
New poll finds Adams trailing behind Silwa — The Hill |
Republican overperforms in San Diego special election — Newsweek |
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Narrator: It was actually over |
"There's no way that [Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.)] has the votes in the House for this [reconciliation bill]. I think it's far from over." — Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) in an interview hours before the House voted to advance the legislation. |
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"I've seen various headlines about various political folks wanting to arrest New York City wunderkind [Zohran Mamdani]. But on what legitimate legal basis? Is there a whiff that he's done anything wrong on his immigration paperwork? An article on that might be helpful as New York City voters make up their minds on the three top current candidates. As well it might be integrated with a deep dive into the various criminal allegations against [Mayor Eric Adams] and ex-Governor [Andrew Cuomo]." — David Tomsovic, San Diego |
Mr. Tomsovic, In the ledger of moral bankruptcy that describes Woodrow Wilson's time as president, there are many contenders for what might be the very worst thing he did: Jailing the women protesting for suffrage, screening a pro-Klan movie at the White House, pumping out fake news through a propaganda newspaper, etc. But the worst is probably jailing his political opponents and using the Justice Department to harass and intimidate dissenters. Wilson's government imprisoned Eugene Debs, the Socialist candidate for president along with many other opponents of World War I. The argument from President Trump and some in his party is that Mamdani's opinions and policies are sufficient to merit denaturalizing the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City. Revoking a political opponent's citizenship from a country where he has lived since age 7 is tantamount to exile, a very czarist kind of thing to do. Those in power argue that only immigrants with desirable views should be allowed to stay, even those who have earned and maintained their citizenship. On one hand, we can assume that this is mostly trolling. Trump loves nothing more than saying what is supposed to be forbidden. And if it lets him leverage up another politician's social media heat, so much the better. But we must always remember the continuum of Trump rhetoric by which strange things become serious policy: It's a joke to own the libs; it's meant to be taken seriously but not literally; promises made, promises kept. So far, it's surely helping Mamdani in a city where, by some estimates, 40 percent of residents are immigrant. Trump is little loved in his hometown, so Mamdani being able to say that he is standing up to Trump and drawing Trump's ire is probably a very helpful thing politically. But we should keep an eye on this one. Republicans who complained about "lawfare" targeting the former and future president after his 2020 defeat should be the most opposed to any such interventions, and yet, here we are. All best,
c |
"Have you read any Ross Thomas? His brand of wit and cynicism is, to me, unmatched in most of the political thrillers (the works of Charles McCarry notably excepted) from the 1960s to today. The Seersucker Whipsaw (1967), about an American southerner sent to run (read: rig) an electoral campaign in Africa is my favorite, but the best title goes to 1970's The Fools in Town Are On Our Side, which comes from a delightful Mark Twain quote in which he declares that that constituency 'is a big enough majority in any town.' Reading an old Ross Thomas paperback makes me feel weirdly comforted in our own wild political times." — Drew Beardslee, Grand Ledge, Mich. |
Mr. Beardslee, I have not, but you can bet that as soon as I read your favorable comparison to McCarry it went right into my shopping cart! My love of what I still think of as "detective stories" probably had deeper roots in my childhood, but I will never forget the summer in college that I discovered and devoured everything by James Ellroy. McCarry came later, but once I had finished "Shelley's Heart," I was off to the races. My quibble, though, is about the use of the word "cynicism." I don't see McCarry's Paul Christopher or McCarry's other "good guys" as cynical, certainly not about themselves. These stories, like Ellroy's, are about people who are willing to do the right thing even when the rest of the world has gone wrong. They have codes and they live by them, even at great costs. If you want cynics, read John le Carré. Thanks much for the recommendation. I will report back! All best, c |
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TechRadar: "A man has pleaded guilty to hacking multiple organizations only to promote his own cybersecurity services. Nicholas Michael Kloster, a 32-year-old from Kansas City, was indicted in 2024 for breaching three organizations, including a health club and a Missouri nonprofit organization. During the incident, Kloster emailed business owners claiming responsibility for the attacks, and offering consulting services to prevent future cyberattacks, and his fate will soon be determined. In one case, Kloster accessed a gym's systems by breaching a restricted area. He manipulated the system to remove his own photo from the member database before reducing his monthly membership fee to $1. He then explained to the business owner that he had bypassed login credentials for security cameras and accessed router settings." |
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Write to WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack! |
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Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. |
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