On the menu: Broad consensus on who to deport and not to deport; A Texas tornado for midterms; Dems bounce back on party affiliation; Mamdani reckons with anti-police past; Monkeying around
We are a long way from the midterms — so far, that when we think about control of the House of Representatives, there's not much point in granular analysis.
Even with the Texas gerrymander (much more on that below), how the House shakes out will depend mostly on the mood of the country in the weeks before November 2026. If President Trump's approval rating in 15 months is as low or lower than it is right now, you can expect substantial Democratic gains. If he gets back to close to even with voters, then Republicans will have a chance to hold on to their super-slim majority.
In that way, the House result is a reflection of everything happening in American public life: 435 seats shaped by economic sentiment, foreign policy, scandal, etc. When we get closer, we can start looking at the handful of races that really could tip either way. But for now, just keep an eye on presidential approval. It remains the best indicator of a party's midterm performance.
Given how few Americans even know the name of their representative in Congress, it's probably best to stick with the broad, long view until we get closer.
That's not the case in the Senate, where candidate quality matters so much more. Think of it this way: Fewer than 4 percent of House members represent a district won by the presidential candidate from the opposing party (16 of 435), while 11 of 100 senators can say the same thing. We saw lots of ticket splitting in Senate races last year and midterm years provide even greater chances for swing states to show a little political independence.
Next year there are, in the most liberal reading, nine Senate races that could be competitive. Democrats would need to flip four of the five Republican seats and hold all three of the seats the blue team is defending to take control of the upper chamber.
Democrats' worries include vulnerable incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia and three seats left vacant by Democratic retirements in Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota.
Republicans, meanwhile, are fretting over an open seat in North Carolina, vulnerable incumbent Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, a possible retirement by Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa, a special election for the remainder of Vice President Vance's Senate term in Ohio, and a wild and wacky primary fight in Texas where Sen. John Cornyn is in the fight of his life.
Another way to think about the Senate is that the size and nature of the map won't really be known until next spring and summer when all the primaries shake out.
Some are already clear. Democrats got their man, former Gov. Roy Cooper, in North Carolina. He's got a clear path to the nomination and the best shot for flipping a Republican-held seat as the GOP lacks a likely nominee with any kind of statewide presence. In Maine, though, the Democrats have so far been unable to coax former Gov. Janet Mills into the race against Collins, who, for her part, remains just a little cagy about seeking a sixth term. If Mills gets in or Collins gets out, this will quickly become a top opportunity for Democrats.
Michigan is looking increasingly good for Republicans, as former Rep. Mike Rogers seems to have a lock on the nomination. Rogers came close in 2024 and is hoping a second run will do the trick, as Democrats are divided in their primary. If Rep. Haley Stevens (D) makes it through, the race will probably be a referendum on Trump, which is bad news for Rogers. But, if one of the fringier candidates gets through, Rogers can run to the middle.
It's a similar story in New Hampshire and Minnesota, but with a happier tone for Democrats.
With open seats, races tend to revert to the overall partisanship of the state and both the Granite State and the Land of 10,000 Lakes are blue in hue, especially in midterm years. Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota and Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire aren't locks for Democrats, but that's the trajectory so far.
Iowa depends entirely on whether Ernst opts to run for a third term. After she turned in an anemic fundraising total for the second quarter of the year, Senate Republicans began expressing concern that she might be packing it in. With her longtime ally, Gov. Kim Reynolds, not seeking reelection, there may be change in the air in Iowa. But if Ernst stays put, she would be very hard to beat.
It's a similar story, but in the other direction, in Ohio. Sen. Jon Husted, the former lieutenant governor, was appointed to Vance's seat. He's running for the remainder of the term and, having been elected four times statewide before, he's a formidable candidate. But, if former Sen. Sherrod Brown decides to make another run, the race could get interesting. Brown lost his seat in 2024 but might fare better in a midterm climate.
Whether Democrats have a chance to retake the Senate, or even to grind down the GOP majority to a place where the handful of Republican MAGA dissenters like Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska could effectively block legislation, comes down to the primaries in two red states: Texas and Georgia.
Both states should be relatively easy wins for Republicans, but in both cases, candidate quality could be a problem. It's a replay of the 2022 dysfunction in which Trump and his team are at odds with state leaders.
Cornyn should be on a glide path to another term in Texas, even with former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred making another Senate run.
But at first, it looked like Cornyn wouldn't be able to survive his own primary, as challenger Attorney General Ken Paxton took a commanding lead in primary polls. Then Paxton was socked with a bombshell divorce filing by the wife who had endured many public indignities to only turn around and leave him just as the campaign was heating up. That and new filings that show some funny business in Paxton's property taxes suggest Cornyn has a better chance to hold on.
This should be good news for Republicans, but Trump & Co. seem determined to beat Cornyn, even if it means risking the seat next fall. News that Trump World may be trying to recruit Trump's former White House physician turned Texas congressman, Ronny Jackson, comes as a balm to Democrats worried that Cornyn might escape unscathed. This looks like a pure vendetta play, and potentially a costly one.
Even riskier for Republicans, though, is what's going on in Georgia.
Gov. Brian Kemp opted against challenging Ossoff, who is only in the Senate because of Trump's previous meddling in Georgia. The Democrat won a 2021 runoff amid Trump's effort to overturn the state's 2020 election results. So Ossoff should be easy pickings for the GOP. Unless …
Kemp seems to be lining up behind Derek Dooley, the former University of Tennessee football coach and son a legendary Georgia Bulldogs coach. The president and his team are reportedly very unhappy about this, setting up a potential clash ahead of the May 19 primary.
A bad pick cost Republicans a Georgia Senate seat in 2022 with Herschel Walker. Democrats are hoping to run the same playbook in 2026.
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