Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) is facing off against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton today in a runoff to decide who will battle Democrat James Talarico in November.
Despite being a well-respected, powerful Republican senator, serving on Senate GOP leadership and voting with President Trump most of the time Cornyn is the underdog who will likely lose today.
And despite facing numerous legal, ethical and political scandals, including a 2023 impeachment trial, Paxton is poised to beat Cornyn. That’s because President Trump jumped in during the bottom of the ninth with a last-minute endorsement of Paxton.
Why this matters so much: Today will test Trump’s grip on the GOP. Cornyn narrowly beat Paxton in March but now that Trump has backed Paxton, Paxton has a strong, 13-point lead over Cornyn, according to Decision Desk HQ’s polling average.
If you’re wondering how Republicans are feeling about this situation, they are frustrated and angry: Cornyn is deeply respected among his colleagues. Some Republican senators see it as a snub to Senate GOP Leader John Thune (S.D.), who worked for months to persuade Trump into backing Cornyn.
Keep in mind: Statewide campaigns in Texas are exceptionally expensive because of how the state is laid out.
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TURNOUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE HIGH:
“The number of early Republican voters who cast a ballot last week in the runoff election far outpaces any runoff election data from this decade.”
The numbers: “Data from the Texas Secretary of State’s office shows there were 829,119 mail-in and in-person votes cast in the Republican primary during the week of early voting. That reflects a 103 percent increase from the Republican primary runoff in 2020; a 77 percent increase from 2022; and a 230 percent increase from 2024.” Read more
