By Chris Stirewalt | Thursday, August 20
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By Chris Stirewalt
Thursday, August 20
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Becky Bohrer, Associated Press
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A chilly forecast for the Senate GOP from Alaska
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Elon Musk may succeed in November at repealing Alaska’s nonpartisan primary system. Whether you think that’s a good thing or not probably depends on whether you’re a Republican who wants to stop worrying about a state that for decades was more reliably red than parts of the Deep South.
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But if you’re an election forecaster, you will miss Alaska’s system if Musk and Co. succeed. With one of the latest primaries on the calendar, Alaska gives us an invaluable look at where voters are heading in a general election now just 74 days away.
As of this writing, with perhaps as much as 20 percent of the vote presumably still drifting in on malamute dogsleds or carried like abalone in the paws of adorable sea otters, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is the top vote-getter in Alaska’s nonpartisan primary, leading incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by more than 5 points.
But if you add up all the Republican candidates in the field (including the other Dan Sullivan), 48 percent of the vote went to Republican candidates — almost 2 points more than Peltola’s current share. But she wasn’t the only Democrat running, either. Add in the Democratic also-rans, and the blue share of the electorate clocks in at 50 percent.
This is hardly to say that this means that Peltola will win in November by 2 points, but this is an awfully good indication of how the electorate is looking with the general election very nearly upon us. Good polling, as we have often observed and has been proven quite right of late, is very hard to come by these days. But in a nonpartisan primary, you get a live feed on how persuadable voters are breaking.
This is the third cycle in which Alaska has had its everyone-in-the-pool primary in effect, and in contested statewide races, most notably the 2022 gubernatorial race, primary results have been strongly predictive of the general. And with Peltola proving herself to be a savvy campaigner with moves like saying thanks, but no thanks to an unsolicited endorsement from former Vice President Kamala Harris, Peltola definitely looks like she’s in the driver’s seat. We’ll check back on the final margins, though, after all the malamutes and otters bring in the last ballots.
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Change from last week: ↑ 2.6 points (-27.8 points)
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Change from one month ago: ↓ 1.6 points (-24.8 points)
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[Average includes: American Research Group 30 percent approve - 66 percent disapprove; Echelon Insights 38 percent approve - 61 percent disapprove; Reuters/Ipsos 33 percent approve - 64 percent disapprove; Emerson College 40 percent approve - 56 percent disapprove; Marquette Law School 40 percent approve - 60 percent disapprove;
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Democratic: 48.2 percent
Republican: 41.8 percent
Advantage: D +6.4
Change from one week ago: ↓ 0.2 (D + 6.6 points)
Change from one month ago: ↑ 0.2 (D + 6.2 points)
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[Average includes: Echelon Insights 50 percent Democratic - 44 percent Republican; Reuters/Ipsos 41 percent Democratic - 36 percent Republican; Emerson College 51 percent Democratic - 43 percent Republican; Marquette Law School 51 percent Democratic - 45 percent Republican; Quinnipiac University 48 percent Democratic - 41 percent Republican;]
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The Wall Street Journal: “Eight colorful prints by modern master Henri Matisse that were stolen last year from a Brazilian library during an armed daytime heist have been recovered and safely returned, São Paulo police said. The Matisse works, which police valued at roughly $190,000, came from the artist’s famed 1947 ‘Jazz’ print series and featured images of a clown and a cowboy, among other imagery. Police recovered the prints last week when they raided an apartment in the São Paulo suburb of São Bernardo do Campo and arrested a man suspected of watching over the stolen art. … The brazenness of the theft rattled art circles. Two armed thieves stormed the marble-floored Mário de Andrade public library in broad daylight, just after 10 a.m. on Dec. 7. They lifted their shirts to show the security guard they had guns and threatened an elderly couple nearby before stealing the art off the library’s walls and escaping on foot minutes later. Police said they feared the Portinari works may have already been resold on the black market. The Matisses were returned to the library last Thursday.”
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Dems take populist pitchforks to data centers: Semafor: “As populist pushback builds against the AI industry and data centers that power it, Republicans who have cheered the AI boom are scrambling to find a new identity as middle-ground pragmatists. Instead of a moratorium on building new facilities, a growing number of GOP candidates have called for ‘guardrails’ to protect skeptical communities from unchecked AI growth, as well as the rollback of industry tax breaks. These Republicans’ rebrand also involves a bid for the high ground by attacking Democrats with more nuanced positions on data centers. They’re aligned with President Donald Trump’s White House, which tried to blunt anti-AI activists’ momentum with a voluntary ‘ratepayer protection pledge,’ released in March with industry promises to foot the bill for the power demand from new data centers. Data centers “could use a little public relations help,’ Trump said on Wednesday.”
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GOP Senate campaign arm tells AI industry to pony up: Axios: “The Senate GOP campaign arm, in a private memo to top AI companies, warns that toxic views of U.S. data centers are killing the party's chances of holding a vital seat in Ohio. In the memo, obtained by Axios, the National Republican Senatorial Committee says Democrats have made data centers a ‘centerpiece’ of their campaign to defeat Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) — and that it's working. ‘If he loses and data centers get the blame, politicians across the country will take notice — and they will not go near the next one,’ the memo says. ‘This has become a sleeper issue for the entire election cycle.’ Republicans want the AI companies to do whatever it takes to stem the public backlash. AI CEOs and top Republicans share in the rising panic. They tell us internal polls show data centers are as popular as spent nuclear waste, and more broadly have become a proxy for feelings about AI. Tech giants are scrambling to pull together media campaigns to try to shift opinion before it hardens locally and nationally. But Democrats aren't dummies. They see the same polls and are moving fast.”
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A rural revolt in Texas: Politico: “Rural voters may not stop the spread of data centers, but they could stop Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. The Republican is bleeding support from small towns as he seeks a fourth term because of two late-emerging issues: power-hungry tech campuses and a planned $33 billion electric transmission build-out. Pushback against Abbott points to larger fears about losing rural identities, but also to everyday concerns about construction, pollution and tight supplies of water and electricity. Shawn Nanny, a Republican county commissioner in West Texas, said data centers and power line plans are the ‘straws that broke the camel’s back’ when it comes to Abbott and other Texas GOP leaders. Some longtime conservatives are now considering the unthinkable — voting in November for a Democrat to be Texas’ next governor. And Abbott’s August directive to pause Texas data center grid approvals hasn’t convinced all of them to vote for him.”
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Talarico opens door to Cornyn voters with high-profile hire: The Hill: “Texas state Sen. James Talarico’s (D) campaign team on Monday confirmed it poached a former staffer for Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) to join him on the campaign trail months ahead of the midterm elections. Jacob Smith, who served as deputy legislative director for Cornyn, will now serve as deputy policy director for the Democratic senatorial campaign in the Lone Star State. ‘I’ve worked for Republicans like Senator Cornyn my entire career, but this year I’m proud to be joining James Talarico’s campaign. Instead of playing partisan politics, Talarico speaks to the needs of everyday people who day in and day out work too hard for too little,’ Smith said in a statement to The Hill.”
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Ossoff trolls Trump over female aide and reaps results: The New York Times: “She never takes a day off, not even on Sunday. She works out of the Oval Office and she’s got a regular seat on Marine One. She texts with world leaders on the president’s behalf. She stays up late with him drafting social media posts. She rarely speaks on camera and yet she is never not there, ever-present with a wide smile and her eyes fixed on the president. She is Natalie Harp, the 35-year-old West Wing aide who is the utmost gatekeeper to President Trump, a one-woman conduit of information operating entirely outside the usual chain of command. The public’s interest in Ms. Harp exploded after she was revealed last week to be one of the lucky few who joined the president inside an airplane catering container to be whisked out of Turkey under threat of attack by Iran. This week she became the subject of a political attack line delivered by Jon Ossoff, the Democratic senator from Georgia, who said of the president: ‘He doesn’t want to do the job. He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the emir of Qatar.’”
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Pity the body men and body women: NOTUS: “There’s a secretive cadre of young staffers whose job it is to make the Senate run more efficiently. They’re known informally as the ‘Body Guy Caucus,’ though some are women. They can be found by most senators’ sides, helping them navigate the maze of hallways, tunnels and subways in the Capitol complex as well as the crowds of reporters outside the Senate chamber who are eager to pounce on their bosses for a quote. While most congressional staffers tend to work out of an office, a body person spends nearly every waking hour shadowing their boss, performing a unique set of duties that include valet, scheduler, traffic cop and sometimes even emotional support animal. It’s a position of trust many senators take very seriously, and one that comes with a high level of stress. ‘It is the craziest position to have on the Hill, and it is the best position to have on the Hill, because you have these 22-year-olds that are more or less babysitting some of the most important and powerful people in the country,’ one former body person told NOTUS.”
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Is Darline Graham’s gaffe sufficient to give Norman a chance on Tuesday?: The Hill: “Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) on Wednesday defended her stumble earlier this week on a national security question during a primary runoff debate, saying she was simply being ‘honest’ about her lack of political experience. ‘I tripped up on one question last night regarding Taiwan,’ Graham said in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday. ‘I have said many times I’m not a politician, certainly not a career politician. I don’t speak politician.’ Graham, who was appointed to fill the vacancy left after her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), died last month, was asked during the special GOP debate on Tuesday whether Taiwan and the South China Sea are national security issues for the U.S. and why. ‘I’m just going to be honest here. I’m not that informed on national security,’ she responded. ‘But I do support the military.’”
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Dems ready to write off Florida Senate race after DSA upset: Politico: “Progressive Angie Nixon’s stunning upset in Florida’s Senate race has many Democrats in the state spiraling. The Jacksonville lawmaker’s primary victory on Tuesday night over retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman jolted a state few thought would hold any surprises. But it also rattled Democrats who worry about her chances against GOP Sen. Ashley Moody in a state that hasn’t picked a Democrat for Senate since 2012. They’re concerned about Nixon’s ability to team up with other candidates and fundraise for down-ballot hopefuls — as Vindman appeared poised to do with his “resistance movement,” Trump-impeachment-era fundraising network. They’re also worried about her more contentious positions, including her decision to join the Democratic Socialists of America in June, in a state where Republicans have 1.5 million more registered voters than Democrats.”
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New Mexico’s Democratic governor soaking up the attention from 2028 field — Politico
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Extended naval deployments and the president’s stated indifference costing GOP in Norfolk-based House race — The Washington Post
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Abdul El-Sayed leads in new Michigan Senate poll by 7 points — The Hill
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Missouri gerrymandering is approved for midterms by a Circuit Court judge — The New York Times
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Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) spotted snooping in constituent’s mailbox — TMZ
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— White House spokesperson Olivia Wales, when asked why President Trump claims that mail-in voting is “inherently corrupt,” yet voted by mail Tuesday.
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“Hey, why’d you put it in that order?”
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Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) when asked about a potential Ossoff and Kelly presidential ticket.
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"Since you mentioned crucial Waukesha County, I couldn’t resist offering up this delicious nugget from Tuesday's results (if you’re a Democrat, at least). I went back to 2018’s primary, which had similar partisan dynamics. Democrats blew the doors off the place, doubling their votes in the county. Tom Tiffany got 6,000 fewer votes. Turnout was about equal between the parties. And the most WOW [Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties] part of WOW? Francesca Hong got 5,000 more votes than Tony Evers. In Waukesha! Can you even believe it! Maybe crucial Waukesha isn’t quite the slayer of Democratic dreams it used to be."
— Mark Kliesen, Atlanta
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Mr. Kliesen,
What, are you trying to put me out of a job or something? Historical election analysis is my bag.
But seriously, great insight. Thanks for onpassing. I would caution Democrats that they call these swing counties for a reason. Today’s dreamweaver is tomorrow’s dreamslayer.
All best,
c
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HOW THE TURNTABLES HAVE TURNED
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CNN: “Vishal Garg feels duped. ‘He hoodwinked me,’ the just-ousted Better Home & Finance CEO said about Daniel Lewis, the man who replaced him last week. ‘He said he liked the company’s strategy. He praised us on X and used that to get on our board and win our confidences.’ Garg, who made headlines for laying off 900 employees on a company Zoom just before the 2021 holiday season, says he was fired on August 3 just as he brought the company to the precipice of success. … Garg acknowledges he’s “hard-nosed” and the famous Zoom layoffs severely damaged the company’s reputation — a mistake he knows will continue to haunt him. But as criticized as Garg has been for placing near-impossible demands on the company and its employees, he said Lewis convinced the board he didn’t push hard enough. Better and Lewis did not respond to a request for comment. On August 4, Lewis posted on X, ‘There was never a $BETR without @vishal_better. That demands respect.’”
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Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media.
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