By Chris Stirewalt | Friday, June 26
|
By Chris Stirewalt
Friday, June 26
|
|
|
© Jacquelyn Martin, Associated Press
|
Whole Hog Politics: It was voters, not Senate Republicans, who forced Trump’s hand on Iran
|
[Watch Whole Hog Politics live: Join us today at 9 am ET at TheHill.com as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon break down this week’s political news and answer questions from a live online audience.]
The early returns are in, and we can pretty safely say that Americans like the peace with Iran but strongly dislike the war that it ended.
The truce is shaky, with hour-by-hour challenges that seem to throw the whole thing into a cocked hat. More likely, though, we are watching the micro-application of Carl von Clausewitz’s dictum that “war is a continuation of politics by other means.” By harassing ships in the Strait of Hormuz that are not sticking to designated lanes — the lanes Iran will seek to use for extortion later — the Iranians are giving real-time examples of their demands in the ongoing negotiations.
One can reasonably assume that the coming months will bring more of the same as the Tehran government wheedles everything it can out of the United States and the West. That’s been the norm for Iranian foreign relations for nearly 50 years, so why expect anything different now?
Some things are different now than when the war began at the end of February, though. Iran’s conventional military and nuclear capabilities took an absolute thrashing. The Islamic state’s threats against their neighbors will ring hollower for some time to come. But the Iranians know something, too: America’s heart just isn’t in this one.
When Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) was pleading with his colleagues not to support a symbolic war powers resolution on Tuesday, he made a couple of bold assertions. He observed that it would have “no effect” on President Trump, who he said wouldn’t “pay any attention to it.” That was pretty clearly not true, since part of what caused the president to release his famously vesuvian temper on Senate Republicans at a tense Wednesday luncheon was the rebuke he was handed in that bipartisan vote against the war.
The anger, in turn, had its own effect. Aside from Trump’s fit of pique around signing a bipartisan housing bill, the eruption probably helped peel off a couple of votes that prevented an even more restrictive — but still only symbolic — resolution from passing on Thursday. The president, who often fails to understand the difference between being important and being powerful, did not like even a symbolic rebuke because it highlighted the fact that he had already run out of options with Iran. The economic anxiety of so many American voters had already forbidden an expansion or indefinite extension of the war. The Senate pointing out that obvious fact no doubt made the president feel very testy indeed.
But Risch made another assertion about the original war powers vote: “The Iranians are going to simply stand up and walk away from negotiations. They're going to say, ‘This thing's over.’ The Congress has told the president of the United States, ‘Leave us alone. We can do whatever we want to do.’”
Much in the way that he had overestimated the president’s nonchalance in the face of symbolic defeats, Risch underestimated Iran’s understanding of American politics. Not only do Iran’s foreign policy officials know how Washington works after decades of playing versions of this same game with multiple presidents, they can also read the polls.
As one new survey suggests, Americans overwhelmingly support ending the war — by a margin of more than two to one — but by similarly large margins believe it is a bad deal for the United States. From Strength in Numbers: “Only 18% of Americans say the U.S. actually achieved its goals in Iran, while nearly half — 46% — say the country should never have gone to war in the first place. Overall, 61% of adults say they are not confident the deal will stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon, as the Trump administration claims.”
A Quinnipiac University poll provides some similar numbers, with a tighter focus on partisanship. Overall, just 34 percent of voters said the war had been worth it. What’s keeping that number from being even more dire for the president is that three quarters of Republicans remained on his side. Among independent voters, though, just 29 percent thought the juice had been worth the squeeze.
This is, of course, why the president says he has his Justice Department looking to punish “Big Oil” for “gouging” consumers instead of lowering prices, pulling a page out of the Biden playbook for a difficult midterm year, presumably to similar effect.
Washington is very much thinking these days about renegade Republicans, flapping their lame duck wings. As Congress gets ready to flee the city — and Trump — until the middle of next month with major work unfinished, we wonder what the vibes will be like when they return. But we should be at least as smart as the Iranians are about American politics: It’s the voters, not Trump’s bad blood with Congress, who are clipping the president’s wings.
|
[Programming alert: Watch The Hill Sunday with Chris Stirewalt – Get the latest from decision makers from around the country and Washington insiders. And, as always, we’ll get expert analysis from our best-in-the-business panel of journalists, including Bill Sammon of The Hill, Carl Hulse of The New York Times and Naomi Lim of the Washington Examiner. Be sure to catch us on NewsNation at 10 am ET / 9am CT or your local CW station.]
|
Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions & amplifications: WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com.
If you’d like to be considered for publication, please include your name and hometown. If you don’t want your comments to be publicized, please specify.
|
|
|
The Hill Insider is coming
|
A new all-access digital subscription from The Hill — launching July 2026. Join the waitlist to be among the first inside
|
|
|
|
Change from one week ago: ↓ 4 points (-21 points)
Change from one month ago: ↓ 1.4 points (-23.6 points)
|
[Average includes: Quinnipiac University 38 percent approve - 55 percent disapprove; Echelon Insights 41 percent approve - 58 percent disapprove; Reuters/Ipsos 34 percent approve - 64 percent disapprove; American Research Group 30 percent approve - 66 percent disapprove, AP-NORC 37 percent approve - 62 percent disapprove]
|
Democratic: 47.6 percent
Republican: 41.4%
Advantage: D +6.2 points
Change from one week ago: ↓ .8 points (D +7 points)
Change from one month ago: ↓ 1.8 points (D +8 points)
[Average includes: Quinnipiac University 49 percent Democratic - 42 percent Republican; Echelon Insights 51 percent Democratic - 45 percent Republican; Reuters/Ipsos 41 percent Democratic - 36 percent Republican; Marquette Law School 47 percent Democratic - 45 percent Republican; Emerson College 50 percent Democratic - 39 percent Republican]
|
|
|
The Atlantic: “For several months last year, a Ukrainian housewife, 35 and lonely in a marriage that had gone cold, traded WhatsApp messages with a Chechen commander, Achmad, stationed somewhere in Ukraine’s occupied south. They wrote about their days, their disappointments, what they hoped to do when the war ended. She asked about the front. He told her. ‘Send me a picture,’ she said. ‘I want to see your life.’ One afternoon, he obliged—a photograph taken inside the barracks, of himself and another soldier grinning for the camera. Behind them, pinned to the wall, was a map of the compound showing the unit’s position. The housewife did not exist. ‘She’ was a middle-aged officer named Serhiy working for Ukraine’s military-intelligence directorate, part of a concerted effort to draw secrets from the men sent to occupy his country.”
|
|
|
|
NYC MODERATE MASSACRE ALARMS DEMS
|
Mamdami flexes: Semafor: “After toppling establishment-backed candidates in three New York City primaries, Zohran Mamdani-backed challengers are already on to their next act: upending the lives of congressional Democratic leaders. The victories of Brad Lander, Claire Valdez, and Darializa Avila Chevalier show the growing power of a progressive bloc that risks stealing the party’s megaphone during a campaign that Democrats had hoped to center on affordability, not aid to Israel. There’s already angst in the party, and glee among Republicans, that the trio will use their new clout to spotlight issues that divide Democrats. Top House Democrats brushed off the results, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries urging reporters to 'look at the totality of all 215 members of the House Democratic caucus.' But the party’s leaders don’t have to look far to reckon with their increasingly left-wing electorate — both Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer live in New York City.”
|
Letitia James warns: The Hill: “New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) expressed frustration with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) for endorsing a group of democratic socialists for statewide races following his victory last November. 'Some of the candidates that he has supported are individuals who do not understand the politics of New York City, the cultural differences from district to district, who have not been part of the history and the struggle of some of these districts, and are relatively new to the body politic,' James told CNN. The New York Attorney General said some of the Mamdani-backed candidates don’t understand the issues of race and class, per the outlet.”
|
Out with the old, in with the new: The Atlantic: “In the weeks after he was elected mayor of New York City last fall, Zohran Mamdani worked behind the scenes to torpedo a bid by one of his allies, a charismatic young democratic socialist, to challenge the reelection of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in Brooklyn. Such a high-profile primary fight, Mamdani reportedly argued at the time, could slow his agenda for the city ... Yet it’s clear that Mamdani is a more powerful broker in New York than either Schumer or Jeffries, whose decisions as national party leaders have often put them at odds with Democratic-base voters back home. ‘If I’m Hakeem Jeffries or Chuck Schumer, and I’m looking at 2028, I would be somewhat nervous—especially Hakeem,’ Christina Greer, a political scientist at Fordham University, [said].”
|
Platner exerts similar clout in Maine, placing a House seat at risk for Dems: Axios: “House Democrats' campaign arm and main super PAC are stopping short of saying they will go all-in to hold onto Maine's lone swing district after failing to get their preferred nominee. This new headache comes as Democratic leaders were already grappling with the never-ending firestorm around Senate nominee Graham Platner. Maine State Auditor Matt Dunlap, a progressive, defeated centrist state Sen. Joe Baldacci in the Democratic primary for Maine's 2nd Congressional District, election officials announced early Friday … The seat, which went for President Trump by 9 points in 2024, has long been seen by Republicans as a top pickup opportunity.”
|
Eyeing 2028, Van Hollen bucks leadership, backs El-Sayed in Michigan: The Associated Press: “Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen is backing progressive Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, breaking with party leadership and intensifying a battle over the party’s direction in one of the most important Senate races of 2026. Van Hollen’s endorsement … makes him the first senator to back El-Sayed since Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed him shortly after he launched his campaign last year. It also comes on the heels of big wins for progressive challengers in New York U.S. House races on Tuesday. The Aug. 4 race in Michigan has increasingly split Democrats along ideological lines, with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer backing U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow drawing support from other prominent senators.”
|
Jonah Goldberg: Democrats finally have their own Trump: The Dispatch: “[Darializa Avila Chevalier] is a 32-year-old doctoral student in sociology. I assume she’s going to be ABD for a while (that’s ‘all but dissertation’ for those of you who may not have known as many students-for-life as I have). Avila Chevalier is the kind of caricature-made-flesh that Fox News producers, GOP consultants, and right-wing Leninists dream about. I really don’t mean that as an insult to the producers, consultants, and Leninists, because they have every right to crow. She’s not a strawman. You can quote her directly without fear of being accurately accused of exaggeration. The things she’s said or endorsed on social media would fit perfectly in a Trump rally speech (and spare me the ‘retweets don’t equal endorsement’ retort).”
|
Matt Yglesias: Dems need a rebranding: Slow Boring: “But as a guy whose whole thing is complaining about Democrats, I really do want to emphasize that 80 percent of what’s keeping Democrats in the game here is Trump blundering. To that you can add some strong tactical optimizations around candidate selection and messaging emphasis. My moderate-aligned friends who work in ads and testing are all really happy with the direction the party is going in. I am less pleased, because I think operatives tend to massively overrate paid media and direct-to-camera videos relative to strategic position-taking. But the national party has not made even token gestures at a rebrand. There’s nothing like the Republicans’ ‘young guns’ from 2010 or the brand refresh Democrats did in 2006.”
|
|
|
OpenAI wins proxy fight in hugely expensive New York Democratic House primary — The Washington Post
|
Former Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) loses costly comeback bid in knock-down primary fight with his successor — Politico
|
Dems get their man with former Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Utah) increasing chances to flip newly drawn seat — Politico
|
Filings reveal depth of GOP efforts to push radicals in Dem primaries — Politico
|
Halfway through primary season and Democrats prove their intensity by casting four million more ballots than GOPers — The Washington Post
|
Postmaster vows to enforce Trump demands on state elections by mail — Reuters
|
Judge blocks Trump key elements in Trump ballot-ban executive order — NBC News
|
How $45 million and some hot stock prices helped Trump benefactor Larry Ellison beat the system — The Wall Street Journal
|
Out of 36,558 ballots cast, Sioux Falls, S.D., mayor wins by two votes — The Hill
|
|
|
THE ODDS ARE GOOD THAT THE GOODS ARE ODD
|
“And while Talarico is definitely a weirdo, you know, take your pick.” — Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in an interview with Semafor about the race to replace him between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
“It’s good to see you. I’ll talk to you next week. Thank you.” — The first public utterance in more than three months by Rep. Tom Kean (R-N.J.) after a New York Times reporter spotted the long-absent congressman “standing in a brightly lit front room of his Westfield home just before 8:45 p.m. Wednesday."
You should email us! Write to WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — at least first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the deeply rooted Camille Miner, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!
|
|
|
|
You should email us! Write to WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — at least first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the philosophical Camille Miner, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!
|
|
|
|
KPNX: “Bright blue pigeons spotted near the Salt River are raising concerns among wildlife advocates after they were dyed for a gender reveal and released in Queen Creek. Crystal White, founder of Crystal’s Critter Haven, a local nonprofit wildlife rehabilitator, said a woman contacted her after spotting the pigeons near Coon's Bluff along the Salt River. ‘I said, "Well, I can help you bring them in," and didn’t think much of it,' White said. ‘And she goes, "Well, there were three more that I couldn’t catch."'" White turned to social media for help finding the remaining birds, concerned their bright blue color could put them at risk … Owner Monica Flores said this was the first time her business had done a gender reveal and the first time dye had been used on the birds … ‘I would never put my birds in harm,’ she said. ‘I used non-toxic food coloring. I have my own procedure on how I apply it to them.’”
|
|
|
|
Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media.
|
400 N Capitol Street NW Suite 650, Washington, DC 20001
Copyright © 1998 - 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved.
|
|
|
|
