President Trump backed off his threat to obliterate Iran’s “whole civilization” right before the deadline he set. Now, the big questions are: Is the ceasefire sticking? And what happens now?
Here’s what we know:
The Strait of Hormuz reopened with limited traffic: Several ships have crossed the vital shipping passage, according to The New York Times, but there hasn’t been a full-scale return of traffic. That’s because some vessels seem wary of crossing because of the risks and unknowns.
However, Iran paused oil tanker traffic through the strait after Israel attacked Lebanon, per CNN.
A new toll at the strait?: The Financial Times reports that Iran is planning to charge the cryptocurrency equivalent of $1 per barrel of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week ceasefire.
Meanwhile, Trump told ABC’s Jonathan Karl that he is considering a “joint venture” with Iran to set up a toll booth in the Strait of Hormuz to charge vessels passing through.
Will oil prices stabilize now?: Oil prices plunged below $95 per barrel and stocks jumped after Trump paused fighting. However, even if traffic through the strait returns to pre-war levels, there has still been damage to energy infrastructure in the region that will take time and money to rebuild. The New York Times notes it will take months to return to normal.
Trump also signaled that “Iran can start the reconstruction process,” which is a very different message from 24 hours ago.
The Trump administration sees this as a ‘total and complete victory’: Trump told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that there is “no question” this is a “total and complete victory” for the U.S. And Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed “a historic and overwhelming victory.”
And so does Iran: CNN reported on a statement by Iranian officials that claimed a “great victory” in the ceasefire agreement. (Keep in mind that Trump claimed the statement is “a FRAUD,” but CNN has defended the statement as legitimate.)
But Vice President Vance called it a ‘fragile truce’: Vance argued that if Iran is willing to negotiate “in good faith,” there can be an agreement. However, he says, if Iran “lies” or “cheats,” the “fragile truce” won’t stick.
And Trump threatened that any country that supplies Iran with military weapons will face a 50 percent tariff on any goods sold to the U.S.
Is there a formal deal between the U.S. and Iran?: It’s in the works. As part of Trump’s eleventh hour announcement, he noted that he received a peace proposal from Iran, which he believes “is a workable basis on which to negotiate” over the next two weeks.
The president said today that Iran will not enrich uranium as part of the ceasefire agreement.
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