Jan. 6 drama ensnares Ron Johnson |
© Associated Press/J. Scott Applewhite |
Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday leading up to November's election.
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Dems seize on Johnson's Jan. 6 controversy |
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) isn't a stranger to controversy. But the latest one embroiling the two-term senator from Wisconsin has put him in a particularly tough spot. The House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol revealed this week that Johnson's staff had attempted to get former Vice President Mike Pence to recognize an alternate slate of electors from Michigan and Wisconsin, two states that proved critical to President Biden's 2020 victory. Johnson and his staff have waved off questions about the episode. "The senator had no involvement in the creation of an alternate slate of electors and had no foreknowledge that it was going to be delivered to our office. This was a staff-to-staff exchange. His new Chief of Staff contacted the Vice President's office," Alexa Henning, a spokesperson for Johnson, tweeted. Democrats pounce: Still, the account from the Jan. 6 committee is already fueling attacks from Johnson's Democratic rivals in this year's Senate race. Several Democrats running to unseat Johnson this year have already called on him to resign in light of the revelation. Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, one of the candidates opposing Johnson, wants the Justice Department to investigate him over the episode. Another hopeful, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, called Johnson a "seditious traitor and a danger to our democracy." Of course, Johnson's made it through tough times before and it's unclear how much – or even whether – the revelations from the committee will affect his reelection prospects, especially at a time when most Americans appear more concerned about rising inflation and gas prices than the attack on the Capitol. But there are signs that he's still vulnerable. A Marquette Law School poll released on Wednesday showed him narrowly trailing three of his potential Democratic rivals – Barnes, Godlewski and Nelson – albeit within the margin of error. He led Lasry in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, 45 percent to 42 percent. |
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Days until the 2022 midterm elections |
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President Biden is facing speculation over whether he can be seen as a viable candidate in the 2024 presidential election, a race that the White House has said he plans to run in but one that also highlights questions over his age. Some Democrats have already said they would support Biden, who is 79, should he run again for another term, but some in his party and others who spoke to The Hill this week have acknowledged his age as a concern. "Look, it's a problem," one Democratic strategist told The Hill. "He's f—— old and everyone knows it, but no one wants to talk about it for fear of offending him or anyone around him." Others who spoke to The Hill point to his success in the last Democratic primary and the following November election or said his age should not be the determining factor, but instead performance. You can check out more from The Hill's Amie Parnes and Hanna Trudo on that here. Cunningham goes there: But even if some are tamping down concerns about his age, that doesn't mean it hasn't put him at odds with members of his own party, including South Carolina gubernatorial candidate and former Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-S.C.). He told CNN's "New Day" on Thursday that he would recommend Biden not run in the next election over his age, even after he lauded then-Vice President Biden's endorsement for him in 2018, when he flipped his House seat blue for the first time in decades. "Well look, this isn't about where we are right now, this is looking to the future," Cunningham said. Questions about Biden's viability are certain to complicate an already challenging midterm environment for Democrats given high inflation, Biden's low approval ratings, generally lower turnout in midterm elections compared to presidential ones and the general precedent that the president's party almost always suffers losses in the midterms. |
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| Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the early favorite among New Hampshire voters for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. That's according to a new University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released on Wednesday that showed the rising GOP star notching 39 percent among likely Republican primary voters in the first-in-the-nation primary state. Trump finished in a close second in that poll, scoring 37 percent. Of course, it's still early so take these polls with a big grain of salt. The most notable finding, however, just might be how much DeSantis has risen. An October 2021 poll from the University of New Hampshire showed Trump beating DeSantis, 43 percent to 18 percent. Key quote: "The governor is proving that his approach and what he's trying to accomplish and what he has accomplished in Florida is more significant and Republicans are now saying it's time to move on," Veteran GOP pollster Frank Luntz said on CNN today about the new New Hampshire poll. Separately, a new AARP Pennsylvania poll out on Wednesday shows Pennsylvania Senate candidate and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) maintaining his lead ahead of Republican challenger Mehmet Oz. The poll found Fetterman receiving 50 percent support among likely voters polled compared to Oz's 44 percent; the margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. However, the race gets closer when the poll examines voters over the age of 50 years old (Fetterman receives 49 percent compared to Oz's 46 percent); among men generally (Fetterman with 45 percent to Oz's 49 percent); and voters between the ages of 50 and 64 years old (49 percent to 47 percent). For voters over 50 years old, the margin of error there is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. More from The Hill's Jared Gans here. |
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Ahead of a much-awaited Supreme Court decision on federal level abortion protections, conservative anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America is launching an digital ad buy of $2 million in eight swing states. Starting on Thursday, ads will air in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin for the next two weeks; for this election cycle overall, the group and its affiliates are planning to spend $78 million. The ad buy comes as the Supreme Court is expected to issue a decision soon on a Mississippi law that bans abortions following 15 weeks of pregnancy. A leaked Supreme Court draft ruling reported last month signaled the high court intended to overturn federal level abortion protections. More on that ad buy from Julia here. |
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Still catching up on this week's elections in Alabama, Georgia, Virginia and D.C.? Julia has the big takeaways here: "Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) managed to fend off multiple challengers to secure a likely third term in office, while Republican candidates fought to see who would take on the vulnerable Democratic incumbents in two competitive Virginia districts.In Georgia, meanwhile, Donald Trump's influence was once again put to the test, while an ex-acolyte of the former president suffered a high-profile loss in a Senate runoff in Alabama." Read her full breakdown here. |
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That's it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill's Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you Tuesday. |
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