Campaign Report — What to watch in Maryland's primaries

View Online    CAMPAIGN REPORT CAMPAIGN REPORT   What to watch in Maryland's primaries  © Associated Press/Brian Witte Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday leading up to November's election.    Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@thehill.com), and Caroline Vakil (cvakil@thehill.com).  Someone forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here. Maryland pits establishment vs. insurgents ©  Associated Press/Brian Witte When it comes to Maryland's gubernatorial primaries, it's the establishment vs. the insurgents.   Voters in the Old Line State are set to choose their nominees to replace outgoing Gov. Larry Hogan today in a pair of primaries that will test partisan frustration with the political status quo in both parties.   On the Democratic side, former Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Tom Perez is running as an establishment-backed steady hand to succeed Hogan, a rare Republican governor in a blue state. But recent polling shows him deadlocked with nonprofit executive Wes Moore, who's running as an energetic political newcomer, while another candidate, state Comptroller Peter Franchot, isn't far behind.   Republicans, meanwhile, are faced with a choice between former state Commerce Secretary Katie Schulz and first-term state Del. Dan Cox. Schulz has the backing of Hogan and has largely campaigned on her political alliance with the outgoing governor, while Cox is endorsed by former President Donald Trump and has been an outspoken critic of Hogan's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Recent polling shows Cox either leading or in a dead heat with his establishment-aligned primary rival.   For Democrats and Republicans, the primary dynamics pose something of a conundrum. Many in both parties see the establishment-backed candidates as their best hopes for victory in November. But there are also simmering frustrations with the political status quo among voters, giving an opening to upstart candidates like Moore and Cox.   Also on the radar: We're also keeping an eye on the Democratic primary in Maryland's 4th District. It's the only open House seat in the state this year and the eventual Democratic nominee will almost certainly go on to capture the district in November. Former Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Md.), who represented the district until 2017, is running to get her old seat back, though she's facing a challenge from former county prosecutor Glenn Ivey.   There's also a hard-fought primary happening in Maryland's 6th District, where a handful of Republicans are vying to take on Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) in the general election. While the GOP field is wide, the race is likely to come down to two candidates, state Del. Neil Parrott and conservative journalist Matthew Foldi. Trone won handily last time he was on the ballot, but thanks to the redistricting process, he's expected to face a more competitive reelection bid this time around.   One more thing: Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) is facing a primary on Tuesday after suffering a minor stroke in May. He still appears likely to win, which would put him on a glide path to reelection in November. Maryland hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate in more than three decades.  COUNTDOWN 111 Days until the 2022 midterm elections Pence sets his sights on early primary states © Associated Press/Jeff Dean Former Vice President Pence's schedule will include stops in South Carolina, Washington, D.C., Arizona and New Hampshire amid growing speculation that he's considering a 2024 presidential bid.   Pence will be heading to Florence, S.C., on Wednesday to deliver remarks at the Florence Baptist Temple, where he's expected to talk about "The Post-Roe World." The former vice president celebrated the Supreme Court's ruling last month that overturned Roe v. Wade, eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion.   The former vice president is also apparently wading further into the Arizona gubernatorial primary with the campaign for candidate Karrin Taylor Robson (R) telling the Arizona Republic that he would be heading to southern Arizona and Phoenix to campaign for her.     Pence will make several stops in Washington, D.C. afterward, giving remarks at The Heritage Foundation next Monday, one day before former President Trump comes back to the District. Pence also has a scheduled appearance during the Young America's Foundation's Annual National Conservative Student Conference, which runs between Monday and Saturday.   Plus, the former vice president will be in New Hampshire on Aug. 17 to participate in the Politics and Eggs forum, considered a notable event for those with possible presidential ambitions eager to extend their reach in the early primary state.   The appearances in several early primary states and his in-person campaigning in a high-profile Arizona gubernatorial primary — widely seen as a proxy war between Trump and those willing to depart with him on the 2020 election — are raising more speculation of a possible presidential run in 2024.   POLL WATCH After President Biden came back from his trip to the Middle East, he came home to some eye-popping numbers: 62 percent of respondents in a poll released Monday by CNN said they had disapproved of his job as president.   The poll only found that 38 percent of those polled gave Biden a thumb's up, coming less than four months ahead of the midterms.   Roughly three-fourths disapproved of his handling of inflation, 69 percent when it came to the economy and 59 percent on immigration (the highest disapproval rating was back in the spring of this year at 66 percent.)   The polling already comes as Biden fights back criticism after traveling to Saudi Arabia amid concerns over the country's human rights abuse allegations and his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whom U.S. intelligence reported had approved the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.  RESCHEDULED Former President Trump will be holding his Arizona rally this Friday after it was rescheduled last week following the death of his first wife, Ivana Trump. That also comes on the same day Pence will be in the state.  Money, money, money © Associated Press/Mark Lennihan Campaigns and PACs had until last Friday to file their fundraising with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) for the second quarter of this year. While campaign contributions don't tell the whole story about how a candidate will perform, it never hurts to follow the money.   The takeaways: Democrats - both incumbents and challengers - performed better than their Republican counterparts in a slew of Senate races.. That could provide a dose of optimism for Democrats who are already nervous about how the midterms will play out as they face several headwinds.   In two high-profile GOP primaries, two Republican incumbents reported better hauls than their Trump-backed primary challengers. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) both reported better fundraising numbers than challengers Harriet Hageman (R) and Kelly Tshibaka (R) respectively.   That fundraising could suggest a few things in races that have several variables at play: One might be the power of incumbency. Another could be that voters might not necessarily take issue with their lawmakers going against the grain even as Trump remains arguably the most important person within the Republican Party.   More on the latest takeaways here.   AD WATCH Florida's ad wars: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is firing back at his Democratic challenger, Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.).   Rubio's campaign is out with a new ad featuring several Florida law enforcement officials accusing Democrats of turning "her back on law enforcement" and voting in line with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi throughout her tenure in Washington. The two-term GOP senator is also getting some help from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) in waging his ad war.   For context: Demings's campaign has already been airing ads across the state touting her law enforcement credentials and her time as Orlando police chief. She's also run an ad criticizing Rubio's attendance record in the Senate.   Of course, Rubio is spending far less on advertising at this point than Demings, who's already dropped nearly $6 million. But the ad buy signals that the race is starting to heat up. Demings drastically outraised Rubio in the second quarter of the year, according to their most recent federal filings, and her campaign was quick to point out that the NRSC stepped in to help Rubio with his latest ad.   Then again, 2022 is still shaping up to be a tough year for Democrats across the board, and Florida, in particular, has drifted further in Republicans' direction in recent years. The race between Rubio and Demings is competitive, but there's still reason to believe that, as it stands, it's advantage Rubio.  That's it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill's Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you Thursday.  Sign up for Campaign Report Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe Sign Up for Other Newsletters 1625 K Street NW, 9th Floor, Washington, DC 20006 © 1998 - 2022 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved.