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CAMPAIGN REPORT

Midterms kick into high gear

Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. Starting this week, you can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday leading up to November's election.

Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@thehill.com), and Caroline Vakil (cvakil@thehill.com).

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Fall campaign sprint begins

It's the day after Labor Day, which means one thing in the world of politics: The fall campaign sprint has begun.

With only about two months to go before Election Day and most of the nation's primaries wrapped up, expect to see candidates ramping up their campaign operations quickly. That means more ads, more campaign stops and, yes, more aggressive attacks.

In light of that, here's a rundown of where things stand:

The battle for the House: Democrats are scrambling to protect one of the narrowest House majorities in decades. Republicans need to flip just five seats to recapture control of the lower chamber and they could pick up as many as three or four of those seats through redistricting alone. At the same time, Democrats are still grappling with the historical reality that the party in power tends to lose ground in Congress during midterm elections, as well as the fact that inflation remains high and President Biden's approval ratings remain underwater.

Of course, the political environment has improved for Democrats somewhat in recent months. The Supreme Court's decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion rights case, gave the party's voters a burst of energy over the summer and there are signs that inflation and gas prices may be easing somewhat, even if they remain elevated. Nevertheless, Republicans are still favored to recapture the House this year, given the party's favorable redistricting outcome, decent candidate recruitment and a slew of Democratic retirements.

The Senate map: The Senate was always expected to be easier for Democrats to hold than the House. Despite the fact that it's split 50-50 between the two parties, Republicans are defending more seats this year, including the seats of several retiring incumbents like Sens. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio).

While the unfavorable political environment for Democrats that has defined most of the past year still puts the party's Senate majority in jeopardy, there are signs that things may be improving here too for Democrats. Republicans in several crucial battleground states ultimately nominated a series of untested, Trump-endorsed candidates who have struggled to get their general election campaigns off the ground, while Democrats have appeared to pull ahead in polling and fundraising.

But don't count Republicans out. The battle for control of the Senate still looks like a toss-up, and GOP groups are getting ready to spend big in the coming months. And even if things look good for Democrats now, any political strategist will tell you that there's no guarantee that will remain the case for the next two months.

COUNTDOWN

Days until the 2022 midterm elections

Primary Day in Massachusetts

There's not expected to be too many surprises in Massachusetts' top-of-the-ticket primaries. State Attorney General Maura Healey is running virtually unopposed for the Democratic nomination for governor; her last serious challenger, state Sen. Sonia Chang-Díaz, dropped out of the race in June, though her name is still technically on the ballot.

The Republican primary, meanwhile, is at least a little bit more competitive. Former President Trump has endorsed former state Rep. Geoff Diehl in that race, making him the favorite to win the nomination on Tuesday. But he still faces a challenge from businessman Chris Doughty, who has also notched some influential endorsements.

Perhaps the most competitive race on the ballot on Tuesday is the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor. Three candidates are seeking the nomination: State Senator Eric Lesser, state Representative Tami Gouveia and Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll, who has benefited from more than $1 million in spending by an aligned super PAC.

On the Republican side, Diehl-aligned Leah Cole Allen is facing off against Kate Campanale for the party's nomination for lieutenant governor.

One other race to watch: Tanisha Sullivan, the president of the NAACP's Boston branch, is challenging longtime incumbent Bill Galvin, a Democrat who's seeking renomination for another term as Massachusetts secretary of state. Galvin has held the office for 27 years.

ON THE TRAIL

Back to Ohio: Trump is set to return to Ohio on Sept. 17 for a rally boosting Republican Senate nominee J.D. Vance and "the entire Ohio Trump ticket," the former president's leadership PAC announced on Tuesday. It's the latest sign that Trump is entering general election mode as the fall campaign season ramps up. Over the weekend, the former president traveled to Pennsylvania to rally support for endorsed candidates there.

A break with Trump: Mehmet Oz, the celebrity physician and Republican Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, says that he would have voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election if he had been in the Senate at the time. "I would not have objected to it," Oz said at a press conference alongside Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) on Tuesday. "By the time the delegates and those reports were sent to the U.S. Senate, our job was to approve it, which is what I would have done."

Why it matters: Oz won the Republican nomination to succeed Toomey, who's retiring, after scoring Trump's endorsement. And while his comments aren't controversial, they still put him at odds with the former president, who sought to overturn the results of the 2020 election and continues to claim that widespread voter fraud robbed him of a second term in the White House. Of course, Oz will need to broaden his appeal among Pennsylvania voters if he wants a chance at winning the Senate seat in November. But his remarks could turn off Trump's most ardent supporters, who remain a key Republican voting bloc.

AD WATCH

Roe v. Wade fallout: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is launching its first general election ad in Nevada targeting Republican nominee Adam Laxalt over his stance on abortion, The Hill's Zach Schonfeld reports. The spot, which is part of the group's $8.4 million fall ad reservation in Nevada, notes Laxalt's praise of the Supreme Court's decision overturning Roe v. Wade, as well as his description of the landmark abortion rights case as a "joke." "Laxalt supported overturning Nevada's abortion protections," the ad says. "He'd let states outlaw it, even for victims of rape and incest. Adam Laxalt's not for us."

Big money: Republican-aligned groups are getting ready to hit the airwaves in key Senate battleground states with a nine-figure ad blitz, NBC News reports. Among those groups is the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the Senate GOP-aligned super PAC, which is getting ready to go on the air with the rest of a $169.2 million advertising campaign in key states. The hefty spending comes as many GOP Senate candidates struggle to keep pace with their Democratic opponents in fundraising – a trend that has forced outside groups like SLF to ramp up their own spending.

OP-EDS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL