The 2024 Senate map was always going to be a tough one for Democrats.
The party will have to defend more than twice as many seats as Republicans, including in battleground states like Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They also appear to have few promising opportunities to flip GOP-held seats; Democrats' best shot looks to be Florida – a longtime swing state that has lurched to the right in recent years.
So it goes without saying that Sen. Debbie Stabenow's (D-Mich.) announcement on Thursday that she won't seek reelection in 2024 was unwelcome news for Democrats, who are still riding high after expanding their narrow Senate majority in the 2022 midterm elections.
Stabenow, the chairwoman of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee and a close ally of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), is the first Democratic senator to forego a reelection bid in 2024. Her coming retirement also creates a prime pick-up opportunity for Republicans, who are eager to recapture the Senate majority after blowing their chance last year.
GOP on offense: Within minutes of Stabenow's announcement, Republicans were already promising an aggressive effort to contest her Senate seat.
"We are going to aggressively target this seat in 2024," Mike Berg, the communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement. "This could be the first of many Democrats who decide to retire rather than lose."
Of course, it's not all doom and gloom for Democrats. The party performed particularly well in Michigan in 2022; Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won reelection by a nearly 10-point margin and every Democratic House incumbent held their seat.
And in explaining her decision to retire, Stabenow said that she had been "inspired by a new generation of leaders," expressing hope in Democrats' prospects for 2024.
"Under the cloud of unprecedented threats to our democracy and our basic freedoms, a record-breaking number of people voted last year in Michigan," she said in a statement. "Young people showed up like never before. This was a very hopeful sign for our future."
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