Defense & National Security — US intelligence leak a blow to Ukraine war effort

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View Online Defense & National Security Defense & National Security The Big Story  US intelligence leak a blow to Ukraine war effort The largest U.S. military leak in a decade is a serious blow to Ukraine's war effort, creating an intelligence threat for that country's forces ahead of an expected counteroffensive this spring.  © Associated Press/Kostiantyn Liberov Classified documents leaked on social media offer extensive details about munitions, training and air defense systems at a critical point in the fight. The Pentagon is still reviewing the validity of the documents.   Dozens of classified U.S. and NATO documents, some labeled "Top Secret," began leaking in more obscure parts of the internet in January before spilling over to Twitter and Telegram and picking up attention last week.   While they only provide a status of the conflict up to March, the material does reveal insight into Ukraine's military capabilities, including battalion sizes, training on advanced weaponry and deployment of heavy combat vehicles, such as Leopard II tanks.   They also give a view into Kyiv's shortcomings, with at least one document describing how the country could soon run out of munitions for Soviet-era anti-air missile systems, exposing a potential vulnerability in Ukraine's air defense systems.   One document, dated in February, says missiles for the S300 will run out by May, while the SA-11 Gadfly missile system will be depleted by the end of March. Both systems make up 89 percent of Ukraine's air defenses, according to NATO, and are crucial in fending off frequent Russian missile strikes.   Russian military bloggers have already widely spread the leaked documents, including those estimating how many air defense systems and aircraft such as fighter jets are deployed by Ukraine.   NATO's assessment also says Ukraine could withstand only a few more waves of Russian missile strikes, while providing a map of where its air defense systems are.   Other documents explain the strength and capabilities of Ukrainian brigades, as well as which weapons systems Ukraine has trained on. One February document estimates the number of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery units fielded by Ukraine.   The leak is also worrying for the U.S. because Russia could figure out how the Pentagon is collecting crucial intelligence on Russian forces and capabilities.   Read the full report at thehill.com. Welcome to The Hill's Defense & National Security newsletter, I'm Ellen Mitchell — your guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. Did someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here. Essential Reads  How policy will affect defense and national security now and in the future: US says some materials in intelligence leak are 'doctored'  The White House on Monday said it is taking a leak of classified information from the Pentagon about the war in Ukraine and other matters seriously, but cautioned that much is still unknown, including whether the leak is contained and how much of the documents are legitimate.  Full Story Pentagon 'working around the clock' to determine size of intel leak The Pentagon is working to determine the size of a classified information leak that received widespread attention last week after it was discovered to have been posted to several social media platforms, a spokesperson said Monday.   "The Department of Defense is working around the clock to look at the scope and scale of the distribution, the assessed impact and our mitigation measures," Chris Meagher, assistant to …  Full Story The 5 biggest US intelligence leaks A stockpile of documents that reportedly leaked from the Pentagon have surfaced online over the past week, appearing to give insight to NATO intelligence in the Ukraine war, leaving western defense officials scrambling to find the source.  While some have pointed to the possibility that the Russian government or pro-Russian sources are responsible for the leak, no concrete conclusion has publicly been made. Instead, defense …  Full Story Single rocket attack targets coalition forces in Syria A single rocket targeted coalition forces in northeast Syria on Monday, U.S. Central Command said.  The "ineffective rocket attack," which happened at Mission Support Site Conoco at 5:51 p.m. local time, "resulted in no injuries or damage to the base or coalition property," according to a CENTCOM statement.  One additional rocket was found at the attack's point of origin near the base, located in Deir ez-Zor Province.  …  Full Story On Our Radar  Upcoming things we're watching on our beat:  Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki will begin a three-day trip to the U.S. on Tuesday, which includes a trip to the White House and meeting with U.S. weapon manufacturers.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will co-host Philippines Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Officer in Charge of the Department of National Defense Carlito Galvez for the U.S.-Philippines 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue tomorrow at the State Department.  In Other News  Branch out with a different read from The Hill: Jim Jordan subpoenas FBI Director Wray House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) has issued a subpoena to FBI Director Christopher Wray in connection with a now-withdrawn memo that explored avenues for gaining information on white supremacists' interaction with local Catholic churches. The memo, a product of the Richmond, Va., FBI field … Full Story On Tap Tomorrow  Events in and around the defense world:  Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo will speak at an Association of the U.S. Army event tomorrow at 7:15 a.m.   U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns will speak virtually at the Stimson Center on "U.S.-China Relations" at 8:30 a.m.  The Hudson Institute will hold a virtual discussion on "Assessing the U.S. Military's Force Structure," at 10 a.m. The Center for Strategic and International Studies will hear from Rob Joyce, director of cybersecurity at the National Security Agency, on "Cyber threats to the Department of Defense, National Security Systems and the Defense Industrial Base and the future of the cybersecurity ecosystem," at 11:30 a.m. The Government Executive Media Group will hold a virtual talk on "The Future of Army Fires and Multi-Domain Environments: How Data Convergence is Galvanizing Future Weapon Systems," at 2 p.m. Estonian Ambassador to the U.S. Kristjan Prikk will speak at the Institute of World Politics on "The War in Ukraine: An Estonian Perspective," at 4 p.m.   What We're Reading  News we've flagged from other outlets: What do leaked U.S. intelligence reports say? Here is a quick guide. (The New York Times) Officials investigating graffitti of swastikas and racial slur at Air Force base, (Military.com) Trending Today  Two key stories on The Hill right now: Goldman slams Jim Jordan over planned NYC hearing: 'not welcome in my district' Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) slammed Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) over the House Judiciary Committee's planned hearing in New York City next week, telling … Read more Don't use public phone charging stations: FBI The FBI is warning people to not use public phone charging stations, which have become increasingly popular in places like airports and shopping malls. … Read more Opinions in The Hill  Op-eds related to defense & national security submitted to The Hill: Why do we think Putin won't use 'the bomb'? Macron's long day's journey into night The Afghan disaster: Will America ever learn?   You're all caught up. See you tomorrow!  Check out The Hill's Defense page for the latest coverage. Like this newsletter? 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