Monday, October 28 | By Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch |
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| ▪ Eight days to corral 'every last vote' ▪ Will House, Senate majorities flip? ▪ When will voters know who won? ▪ Israel bombs Iranian military targets |
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Eight days, the choice, one president
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Is it possible for the 2024 presidential election to be tied all the way to the end? In a word, yes, according to polling. And each campaign can read the signs on the ground. There are eight suspenseful days to go. The candidates' travel schedules remain frenetic. Philadelphia is ground zero. Vice President Harris and running mate Gov. Tim Walz (D) plan to spend time with voters in every swing state again before Nov. 5. Former President Trump and running mate Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) announced final stops in at least four battleground states this week. Trump used a Madison Square Garden extravaganza Sunday to try to animate a loyal base and urge turnout far beyond Gotham, but his event made news when surrogates used crude and racist insults against Harris on stage, which Trump's team attempted to walk back. Performing as a warmup for the nominee Sunday, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe (known as Kill Tony) took aim at Puerto Ricans, who make up a third of the city's Latino population and 17 percent of New York State's population. "There's a lot going on. Like, I don't know if you know this but there's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it's called Puerto Rico," the comic said to mixed reactions from the crowd. Swing state Pennsylvania has the fourth largest concentration of residents with Puerto Rican roots after Florida, New York and New Jersey. At that point Sunday, Harris was in the City of Brotherly Love and her aides noted Hinchcliffe's remarks came as she spoke at a Puerto Rican restaurant where she detailed her plans to assist the island and bolster its electrical grid. Latino celebrities endorsed Harris following Hinchcliffe's Puerto Rico joke (The Telegraph). Trump supporter Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R), who is running for reelection in a competitive race against an Ecuadorian-American congresswoman, tweeted: "This joke bombed for a reason. It's not funny and it's not true. Puerto Ricans are amazing people and amazing Americans! I've been to the island many times. It's a beautiful place. Everyone should visit! I will always do whatever I can to help any Puerto Rican in Florida or on the island." Harris's campaign is counting on its organization on the ground in swing states to nudge undecided voters to the polls for the Democratic ticket. There are discussions about female "ghost voters" who might have eluded pollsters but could materialize to vote for Harris. She plans a somber speech Tuesday in Washington to remind Americans about Trump's words and deeds on Jan. 6, 2021, during his supporters' attack on the Capitol. Each presidential contender continues to broadcast through media interviews. At rallies, they have each described their opponent as cognitively unfit to be president. And each riffs through by-now-familiar policies and promises amid dire warnings about 2025 and beyond. Harris told CBS News in an interview that her first priority would be to get Congress to pass the restoration of abortion rights nationwide, which she wants to sign into law. Trump's campaign launched a new ad during Sunday's NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Philadelphia Eagles about his leadership, titled "Never Quit, and put up an ad to rebut charges that Trump is a "fascist." The Harris campaign rolled out a final closing-argument ad focused on the economy. "It's all about getting unchecked power while you pay the price," a voiceover says. Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman (D) says he knows firsthand about Trump's support in his state, which has 19 electoral votes. The presidential contest won't turn on policies, he says, but on less tangible decision making. "It's definitely not going to be about fracking or some of these obscure things," he told The New York Times in "The Interview," referring to a controversial energy production technique important to his state's economy. "It's really much more — it's visceral," Fetterman said. "And that's why the people that are left that haven't made up their decision are going, you know, `What do I want for the next four years?'" Fetterman complimented Harris's truncated campaign after President Biden withdrew and said he believes she will defeat Trump. "But it's going to be much, much closer than anyone would want," he told the Times. "And that's why, now I'm saying, we got to fight for every last vote. It's going to matter." |
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Smart Take
with Bob Cusack |
| There is an intriguing race to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) as GOP leader in the upper chamber. Trump has long had a fractious relationship with McConnell, who will finish his term out in the next Congress. The Hill reported last week that Senate conservatives, anticipating a good night on Nov. 5, want Trump to have a significant role in choosing McConnell's successor. Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) is considered the favorite along with Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a former Senate Republican whip, also seen as a strong candidate. Both are prolific fundraisers and well respected by their GOP peers. Thune and Cornyn may have some late competition, though. Why? Because they are not always in lockstep with Trump. Other possible candidates who have been floated include Sen. Scott, who has to get reelected first, and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (Mont.). There is no doubt Trump is the leader of the party. His endorsement in primaries is extremely potent. Yet, even if Trump wins, he won't have much sway in the leadership contest. "Anyone who thinks Trump isn't going to have an outsized influence on the leader race is dumb, willfully naive, or both," a Republican senator who requested anonymity told The Hill. It's a good bet that Thune or Cornyn will lead the Senate GOP next year. |
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©️ The Associated Press | Patrick Semansky |
CONTROL OF THE HOUSE is on the line this November, and the fight remains too close to call in the final sprint — and campaign operatives in both parties acknowledge the 11th-hour uncertainty. Democrats got a big boost over the summer when Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket. Party leaders are also animated by the fact that 18 incumbent Republicans represent districts won by Biden in 2020. There are 14 Republican incumbents in "toss-up" races, representing the most competitive contests in the country, according to the latest tally from the Cook Political Report, and another is in the "lean Democrat" column. But they have 11 "toss-up" races to defend, including three contests where Democratic retirements have put the seats in play. Still, Democratic candidates have vastly outraised their GOP opponents in races across the country, and party leaders are voicing confidence they'll seize control of the House next year. Republicans, meanwhile, are expected to net a seat as a result of the redistricting process and are encouraged by a map where five of the most vulnerable incumbent Democrats represent districts carried by Trump in 2020. With him back at the top of the ballot — and making gains among Black, Hispanic and male voters — Republicans feel confident they'll have better luck seizing those seats this time around. The extra cushion would be a welcome development for GOP leaders who have struggled, with a razor thin majority, to unite the warring factions of their conference in order to pass even the most basic legislation. IN MONTANA, scrutiny over businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy's military record could shake up the Senate race, where Sheehy, the GOP candidate, is pulling away from incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester with a 6.5 point average lead in the polls, according to RealClearPolitics. Longtime observers of Montana politics told The Hill's Alexander Bolton the late-breaking controversy could impact voters' thinking, although it might not deliver Tester's hoped-for reelection. "It goes to credibility, and from that standpoint, it has the potential to impact the race," said David McCumber, the former editor of The Montana Standard. "From what I hear and from reading accounts and ads, it's clearly the topic of conversation," he said, explaining that the question of credibility is "where Sheehy is vulnerable with it." IN NEW YORK, Democrats are going all-in on efforts to flip the 4th Congressional District blue, funneling in big names and money with hopes that a victory could help usher in a Democratic House majority. The district, which sits on the South Shore of Long Island, holds the title of most Democratic-leaning district currently represented by a Republican. The area broke for Biden by 14.6 points in 2020. But in 2022, Republican Rep. Anthony D'Esposito beat Democrat Laura Gillen for the district's open House seat by 3.6 points. Now, the race is a rematch between D'Esposito and Gillen, a take-two showdown that has drawn outsize attention, and fundraising, on the national stage. HOUSE REPUBLICANS are headed for several fights over their committee leadership ranks next year, with critical implications for policy priorities and the next president. |
Harris has struggled to combat Trump's anti-transgender attacks, which are a major part of the former president's closing argument. Harris is zeroing in on specific communities of Asian American voters in key swing states in the election's final stretch, focusing on the 1.5 million Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPI) in the election's swing states. In some, such as Nevada, they make up more than 10 percent of the electorate. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s ballot presence in swing states Michigan and Wisconsin is raising concerns that he could inadvertently draw crucial votes from Trump. On the issues: Where do Trump and Harris stand on housing affordability? The campaign to pass a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in Florida's constitution has raked in cash in recent months, giving it a massive financial advantage over the opposition with days until votes are counted. |
- The House will convene a pro forma session on Tuesday at 2 p.m. The Senate will hold a pro forma session Tuesday at 9:30 a.m.
- The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 8:30 a.m. He will cast his election ballot in Wilmington, Del., then travel to the White House. Biden will hold a virtual event at 3 p.m. to thank active duty and National Guard service members who responded after Hurricane Helene in North Carolina, where the verified death toll is 98. Biden will telephone select officials at 3:45 p.m. to discuss recovery and rebuilding efforts in states affected by hurricanes Helene and Milton. Biden will speak at 5:30 p.m. during an East Room reception to celebrate Diwali.
- First lady Jill Biden will headline political events today in Traverse City, Mich., Bay City, Mich., and LaCrosse, Wis.
- Candidate schedules this week: Harris will hold campaign events in Saginaw, Mich., Macomb County, Mich., and Ann Arbor, Mich. (a concert and rally, including singer Maggie Rogers). On Tuesday, the vice president will address supporters at the Ellipse near the White House, site of Trump's Jan. 6, 2021, remarks to a mob that attacked the Capitol. On Wednesday, the vice president will be in Raleigh, N.C., Pennsylvania, and Madison, Wis. On Thursday, Harris will hold an afternoon rally in Phoenix to include a concert with Los Tigres del Norte, plus events in Reno, Nev., and Las Vegas. Today, Trump will campaign in Atlanta. On Tuesday, Trump will campaign in Allentown, Pa., and join a community roundtable in Delaware County outside of Philadelphia presented by Building America's Future as part of its America's Future Tour. On Wednesday, the former president will campaign in Green Bay, Wis. On Thursday, Trump will campaign in Henderson, Nev. On Friday, Trump will hold an event in Milwaukee. On Saturday, the former president will campaign in Salem, Va. Today, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) will campaign in Manitowoc, Wis., and Waukesha, Wis. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) this afternoon will campaign in Wausau, Wis., and in the evening, appear in Racine, Wis. On Tuesday, Vance will headline rallies in Holland, Mich., and Saginaw, Mich.
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©️ The Associated Press | Paul Sancya |
WHEN WILL WE KNOW WHO WON? This November, voters may not have to wait quite as long after Election Day for the presidential result as they did in 2020. Four years ago, it took five days for most major news outlets to issue a projection, the longest they had to wait since the infamous 2000 election. A historic increase in mail-in voting amid the COVID-19 pandemic that several key states weren't prepared to handle quickly was one main reason. But experts told The Hill's Jared Gans that some changes in state policies since then and an expected drop in mail-ins this year should speed the process up, even if the final result isn't known on election night. "Things will be different this year," said Quinn Yeargin, an associate professor of law at Michigan State University. "It may not be as quick as 2022. Famous last words I suppose, but I would be surprised if the process took as long as it did in 2020. At the same time, the ultimate outcome in 2020 was quite clear before the networks called it on that Saturday." DEMOCRATS ARE SOUNDING THE ALARM about Trump's harsh rhetoric in the home stretch of the race. But national security experts told The Hill's Brad Dress and Ellen Mitchell there's reason to believe a repeat of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection is unlikely. Amy Cooter, a Middlebury Institute specialist who studies extremism, says election violence remains a concern. "These landscapes are so volatile that [the assessment] today could dramatically change based on something that happens later," she said. "But as of right now, I am most concerned with sort of small outbreaks of violence, not like we saw January 6." The Hill: Legal fights have broken out in every critical battleground state in the weeks before Election Day, setting up dramatic court standoffs targeting thousands of votes that could decide who wins a razor-thin race. Foreign interference in U.S. election: Recent reports of Chinese actors allegedly targeting prominent U.S. campaigns and candidates raises concerns about foreign meddling (The Hill). Russian election interference "is what they do," GOP running mate Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) told CBS's "Face the Nation" Sunday, expressing no outrage. In a Friday statement, the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said Russia manufactured a fake video spread on social media that falsely shows a person tearing up ballots in what is supposedly Pennsylvania. "I think the bigger question is, what is in our best interest vis-à-vis Russia, not what price Russia should pay for putting out social media videos," Vance said. |
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©️ The Associated Press | Gil Cohen-Magen |
ISRAEL ACHIEVED "ALL ITS OBJECTIVES" in its weekend attack against Iranian military targets, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday. Israel said it hit 20 military targets Saturday in what it called a limited attack that degraded air defenses and weapons facilities. "We have severely struck [Iran's] defense capabilities and its ability to produce missiles," Netanyahu said. "The attack on Iran was precise and powerful, achieving all its objectives." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, meanwhile, said his country would respond to the strikes. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday told Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, that Iran "should not make the mistake of responding to Israel's strikes," and said Israel's strikes "should mark the end of this exchange," according to the readout of a phone call. Biden told reporters Saturday that he hoped the Israeli strikes were "the end," and that it appeared they "didn't hit anything other than military targets." ▪ The New York Times: Experts inside and outside the Biden administration fear that Iran may conclude it has only one defense left: racing for an atomic weapon. ▪ NBC News: Israel's emergency services are treating dozens of casualties after a truck rammed into a bus as it was dropping off passengers at a bus stop near the Glilot military base north of Tel Aviv on Sunday morning. ▪ The Hill: The revelations that North Korean troops could within days join Russia's war in Ukraine have raised the prospect of the U.S. and its allies getting more involved in the conflict. ▪ The New York Times: Japan's governing party lost its majority in parliamentary elections on Sunday, throwing the country's politics into its most uncertain period in years. |
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- Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is testing a new pro-worker playbook in Ohio, by E.J. Dionne Jr., columnist, The Washington Post.
- Trump is telling us what he would do. Believe him, by The New York Times editorial board.
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©️ The Associated Press | Marco Ugarte |
And finally … 🦇 When someone says so-and-so has "ears like a bat," or sleeps "like a bat," they don't always have compliments in mind. Into the picture flies a contest. A federal bat beauty contest, which ends on Halloween. The Bureau of Land Management is hosting an online "cute bat" competition showing candidate photos on its Facebook and Instagram accounts while asking for public votes based on features perhaps only a mother could love. The first round of balloting began Thursday. The goal: encourage greater appreciation of bats as environmental assets on public lands. |
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