By Chris Stirewalt | Friday, October 3 |
By Chris Stirewalt Friday, October 3 |
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© Hill Illustration, Samantha Wong | AP |
Virginia, New Jersey races turn ugly, foreshadowing midterms |
Let's start with the stipulation that the current government shutdown could hardly have been designed to be more damaging to Republican candidates in next month's off-year gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. The White House is trumpeting another round of deep federal layoffs even before voters had forgotten about the pain from the Department of Government Efficiency cuts that hit Northern Virginia so hard this spring. And the move to punish Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) by trying to kill the New York Gateway project will cause just as much pain in New Jersey as it will in New York, since the project is supposed to ease congestion for commuters. President Trump's job approval in Virginia, according to the new poll conducted for The Hill by Emerson College, sits at 42 percent. Not coincidentally, that's exactly the share of the vote that Republican state Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears gets in her match-up with former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who clocked in at 52 percent. Those numbers closely track the results of a mid-September survey from Christopher Newport University, suggesting this isn't an outlier. Not only does Trump's approval rating in Virginia pretty closely match his national average, it is identical to the number in the most recent high-quality poll on the New Jersey race. The bipartisan polling team at Fox News found Trump with a 42 percent approval rating in the Garden State and Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli clocking in at, you guessed it, 42 percent of the vote against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill. The big difference in New Jersey compared to Virginia, though, is that the Democrat has had trouble breaking away from a Republican opponent bogged down by their national party's brand. A September Emerson poll, also conducted for The Hill, showed Sherrill and Ciattarelli dead even. There have been three worthwhile polls of the race since the start of September and Sherrill leads by an average of 5.3 points, almost half of Spanberger's average lead in Virginia polls over the same period. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won New Jersey and Virginia by almost identical 6-point margins last year. That was substantially narrower than the 2020 presidential margin in both states, but it was New Jersey that closed the most: a 10-point swing in just four years, compared to 4 points in Virginia. Add in the fact that Ciattarelli substantially overperformed preelection polls four years ago when he tried to knock off incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) — losing by 3 points instead of the expected 9 points — and you see why Republicans are convincing themselves that New Jersey is trending their way. A less satisfying answer for Republicans is that New Jersey is just a lot more politically elastic than Virginia. Democratic performance in New Jersey has swung up and down repeatedly this century, while the trend line in Virginia has gradually transited from light red to light blue. Arguing in that direction is Murphy's unique unpopularity four years ago because of his hard-line COVID-19 stances. While he's still underwater with voters by a single point in the Fox News poll, Murphy has rebounded from the depths of 2021 and 2022. But whether it's because of volatility or a genuine move to the right, Republicans have to like their chances better in New Jersey than Virginia. You can typically tell which side thinks it is losing an election by which party is leaning into the culture war or personal attacks more. And the Republicans in both Virginia and New Jersey pretty clearly know they're behind with a month and a day before the votes are counted. In New Jersey, Ciattarelli has gone all in on a familiar attack from the 2024 election: stolen valor. Like the attacks on Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) over his National Guard service, Ciattarelli is trying to turn a positive for Sherrill — her Annapolis education and long Navy service — into a negative. The Trump administration released Sherill's largely unredacted service record, which made its way to the Ciattarelli campaign as part of an effort to tie her to a cheating scandal when she was at the Naval Academy. Sherrill admits she failed to turn in the cheaters and wasn't allowed to walk with her graduating class 31 years ago but did graduate, was commissioned as an officer and served honorably for a decade. Those kinds of campaigns do damage, but come at a steep price. Mudslinging splashes back on the thrower even as it soils the opponent. That's one thing in a presidential campaign like the ones we saw in 2016 and 2024, when both candidates were universally known and mostly disliked, but something very different in contests like these. Neither race has an incumbent running, and none of the contenders is exactly a household name. When these kinds of contests get ugly, as both have turned in the past two weeks, it harms voters' assessments of both candidates. The question for the one running behind is whether the juice is worth the squeeze. And in this case, Ciattarelli not only looks like he's throwing mud, he's making Sherrill's Navy service the biggest issue in the closing weeks of the campaign. It may end up being a net positive for her. Virginia is also seeing a replay of a Republican attack from 2024, but one with more potential danger for the Democratic nominee. The case of a man accused of sex crimes in Fairfax and Arlington counties who allegedly claimed to be a trans woman to gain access to a women's locker room where he is accused of exposing himself to girls has reignited the furor over transgenderism and sports. Unfortunately for Spanberger, this comes after she foundered on a question on the subject from a local reporter, who was asking about an attack ad from the Earle-Sears campaign. Virginia Republicans are using the same language that helped Trump in his late-campaign blitz against Harris, when he said "Kamala is for they/them. I am for you." Even if the attacks aren't enough to close the gap in this race, it points to a serious problem for Democrats looking ahead to the midterms. While an increasing number of members of the blue team have come out against transgender women in women's sports, notably California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), those like Spanberger who want to keep a nuanced, trans-inclusive stance are most assuredly going to hear a great deal about it in 2026. For her part, Spanberger is trying to lean away from the popular wedge issue for Democrats in 2024 — defending democracy — and into kitchen-table issues about the cost of living, while making sure to keep her distance from the radicals in her party. One assumes it will be enough, given how Virginians are feeling about Trump and the GOP just now, but it's certainly a foretaste of the battle Democrats will have to fight next year in order to cash in on the midterm curse for the party in power. |
Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions & amplifications: WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com. If you'd like to be considered for publication, please include your name and hometown. If you don't want your comments to be publicized, please specify. |
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| Change from last week: ↑ 4 points Change from one month ago: ↓ 1.6 points |
[Average includes: Pew Research Center 40 percent approve - 58 percent disapprove; NYT/Siena University 43 percent approve - 54 percent disapprove; Marist College 41 percent approve - 53 percent disapprove; Marquette University Law School 43 percent approve - 57 percent disapprove; Quinnipiac University 38 percent approve - 54 percent disapprove] |
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NYT: "Expecting his normal catch of plaice, turbot and Dover sole, Arthur Dewhirst was surprised when his nets spilled their contents onto his ship's deck earlier this year. Instead of shiny, flapping fish, hundreds of octopuses wriggled and writhed. His first thought? 'Dollar signs! Dollar signs! Dollar signs!' he recalled with a laugh, sitting in his trawler last month in the harbor at Brixham in Devon, England. Across England's southern coast, fishing crews reported an extraordinary boom in octopus catches this summer. Sold for around 7 pounds a kilo, it was sometimes worth an extra £10,000 ($13,475) a week to Mr. Dewhirst, he said. In Brixham, home to England's largest fish market, the octopus invasion is the talk of the town. A quay side cafe decorated its frontage with an octopus-themed mural, a restaurant offered octopus alongside its staple fish and chips and its owner demonstrated in a social media video how to cook a species still relatively unusual in British kitchens." |
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Cuomo atones to Jewish voters over COVID crackdown: AP: "Andrew Cuomo has apologized to New York City's Jewish community for his response to the COVID-19 pandemic when he was governor, a rare retreat on a signature campaign issue as he runs for mayor. In a video that circulated online Wednesday, Cuomo said he was acting to 'protect health and save lives' during the pandemic — when he angered Orthodox communities by limiting the size of religious gatherings — but did not "always fully consider the sensitivities and traditions that are so deeply important. We could have done better, and for that I am truly sorry. My intentions don't change the impact, and I sincerely ask for your understanding,' Cuomo said in the video, which was timed to Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. … Cuomo has since relaunched his campaign as an independent candidate. After Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the race Sunday, a number of Jewish groups and leaders have offered endorsements for Cuomo. |
Trump threatens to cut off city funding if Mamdani wins: The Hill: "President Trump alluded Monday to assured conflict with Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani if the assembly member is elected New York City's 111th mayor. 'Self proclaimed New York City Communist, Zohran Mamdani, who is running for Mayor, will prove to be one of the best things to ever happen to our great Republican Party,' Trump said on Truth Social. 'He is going to have problems with Washington like no Mayor in the history of our once great city. Remember, he needs the money from me, as President, in order to fulfill all of his fake communist promises. He won't be getting any of it, so what's the point of voting for him?'" |
Does Mamdani need a mandate for such a big agenda?: Politico: "Zohran Mamdani is poised to make history in November: If polling holds, he'll be the first New York City mayor in recent memory to win without majority support. That would be a shaky foundation for anyone at the helm of City Hall. And Mamdani is already a polarizing figure — a democratic socialist with a sprawling progressive agenda that requires the blessing of Albany. The frontrunner has consistently polled at around 45 percent in the contentious general election, far short of anything that could be considered a mandate, even as he continues to best second-place contender Andrew Cuomo by double digits. A win is a win, but the margin of victory is also a barometer of how deferential unions, political organizations and elected officials will be when it comes to the city's chief executive." |
Dems look to Tennessee for a special election upset: Inside Elections: "Tennessee's 7th District, a solidly Republican seat that could nevertheless have just enough Democratic voters to make things interesting. The campaign to replace former Rep. Mark Green, who resigned from Congress for an unspecified opportunity in the private sector, has been quiet so far, but that is about to change with both parties' primaries coming up on October 7. … If Democrats do 16 points better than Baseline in the Tennessee 7th special election — which is their average in federal special elections so far this year — Republicans would win the seat by just 4 points. That would surely be too close for comfort for Republicans, although, importantly, it would still be a win. However, it wouldn't be unprecedented for Democrats to overperform Baseline by enough to flip the seat outright; back in April, they did 25 points better than Baseline in the special election in Florida's 1st District." |
The Republicans ditching swing districts despite Trump demands: Downballot: "Republican Rep. David Schweikert announced Tuesday that he would run for governor of Arizona rather than defend his swingy House seat—a decision that will have a huge impact on two of next year's most competitive elections. Schweikert joins fellow Rep. Andy Biggs and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson in the Aug. 4 primary to face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. … Trump, though, may be irritated at Schweikert for making this an open-seat race in the first place. Trump has spent much of the year trying to convince House members in competitive seats to seek reelection rather than seek higher office. While many have heeded his call, MAGA's master has expressed annoyance with one who hasn't. Trump told Michigan Rep. John James in June he was 'not sure I'm happy' that the congressman chose to run for governor rather than defend his light-red House seat." |
Dems try to block Missouri redistricting: KSDK: "The Democratic National Committee is wading into Missouri's redistricting fight, announcing new investments to block what it calls 'rigged' Republican maps signed into law this weekend by Gov. Mike Kehoe. … Without specifying a dollar amount, the DNC says its new investment will support the Missouri Democratic Party's on-the-ground efforts to gather signatures, including hiring staff, mobilizing volunteers across the state, and deploying a national text-bank of more than 40,000 volunteers. DNC Chair Ken Martin framed the fight as part of a larger clash over Trump's influence in Missouri politics. Democrats argue the new boundaries would split up Democratic voters in Kansas City, diluting the influence of Black and minority communities while putting Congressman [Emanuel] Cleaver's seat at risk." |
Judges to decide if Texas gerrymander can go into effect in 2026: KUT: "A panel of three federal judges in El Paso began hearing arguments Wednesday around the newly drawn districts, and will ultimately decide if the new map can be used in 2026's midterm elections. … The hearings, which are expected to run into next week, stem from a lawsuit claiming the map was intentionally designed to give minority voters less power. The state of Texas denies that assertion, saying the map was drawn to give Republicans a political advantage. While racial gerrymandering is not allowed, the U.S. The Supreme Court has said partisan gerrymandering is legal. … The hearing's outcome could have a significant impact on the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives in next year's midterms. That's an especially big deal for Texas Republicans considering the new congressional district lines were drawn to help the party gain as many as five new seats in Congress from Texas." |
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John Sununu leads Scott Brown for N.H. Senate nod, both trail Pappas in general — Seacoast Online Dem donors push progressive upstart Talarico past Colin Allred for Texas Senate — The Hill New poll shows lots of bipartisan love for Shapiro in Pennsylvania — The Hill Madison Cawthorn tries House comeback, this time in Florida — The Hill ESPN football analyst Finebaum, citing Kirk murder, says he may jump into Alabama Senate race — The Hill 'Squad' Rep. Ayanna Pressley joins moderate Mouton in mulling Markey challenge — Downballot Rep. Mike Quigley files bid for Chicago mayor — WBBM |
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"Taxes are on the table, but I'd be careful of millionaire taxes. They're employing us." — Jim Gannon, the Republican nominee for New Jersey lieutenant governor, answering a question about a proposed "millionaire's tax" during a candidate debate. Democrat Dale Caldwell pounced on Gannon's gaffe. |
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Oregonian: "The world has seen a lot from Portland lately. It may be about to see a lot more. Organizers of the World Naked Bike Ride said on Instagram Wednesday that they're planning to protest the Trump administration's decision to send 200 federalized National Guard troops to Portland. Organizers of the World Naked Bike Ride say they're planning to protest President Donald Trump's decision to federalize 200 Oregon National Guard troops in Portland. 'Emergency World Naked Bike Ride coming up in response to the militarization of our city,' reads the caption of an Instagram reel posted by the event's organizers. 'Plans are being worked on.' Using the format of naked bicycling as a form of protest against the Trump administration's actions should be hardly surprising. The annual Portland event was created as a protest against Big Oil." |
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Write to WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, Meera Sehgal, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack! |
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Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. |
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