Republican attempts to flaunt the benefits of the tax cuts they passed last year are being overshadowed by President Trump’s foreign entanglements and tariffs, and the economic uncertainty that comes with it.
“War’s expensive, government's expensive, and there's a challenge,” Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, said last week in a Tax Day Eve press conference when I asked about the effect of the Iran war on the public’s awareness of the impact of the tax cuts.
Republicans who had long planned to make Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent using the special reconciliation process, which allowed them to bypass Democratic opposition, pushed hard last year to pass the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” as quickly as possible — in part so voters would feel the economic benefits of the legislation before the midterm elections. Businesses were expected to respond well to the certainty of tax cuts being made permanent.
But Republicans have had a tough time messaging on the bill since its passage last summer. They informally rebranded it as the “Working Families Tax Cut” in a bid to better sell it to voters.
Since then, the Iran war, Trump’s tariffs, and high gas prices have led to jolts to the U.S. economy that many voters are noticing perhaps more than a bump in their tax return. Gas prices surged to over $4 on average this month for the first time since 2022, and mortgage rates — which had briefly dropped to below 6% for the first time since 2022 — spiked as Trump took action in Iran.
Trump has often downplayed the jolts, or dismissed altogether. He told The Hill on Monday that his Energy Secretary Chris Wright was “totally wrong” on warning that gas prices might not drop below $3 per gallon until next year.
But Republicans are getting antsy — look no further than the growing push to include tax and affordability provisions in their pending reconciliation package.
Noquist noted the challenge of communicating to voters the benefits of the tax cuts. Polling he’s seen shows that “if you explain to people that if we hadn't passed” the tax cuts, then “everyone would see their rates go up .... Is it a good idea that we avoided a tax increase? Absolutely.”
“There's not the appreciation of that, what you just missed. You just missed the oncoming traffic,” Norquist said. “This probably should have been done during the campaign — There is a large truck heading straight for your head, and here's all the tax increases that will hit you if it isn't stopped.”
“It was stopped, which is important for the economy. But you’re right on the politics of it,” Norquist told another reporter. “It hasn't been as appreciated.”
There have been signs of Americans getting bigger tax breaks, which Republicans have promoted. President Trump last week had a DoorDash delivery woman, Sharon Simmons, deliver McDonald’s to the Oval Office as a way to promote the “no tax on tips” portion of the law.
“My understanding is that it’s pretty popular,” Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), chair of the House Freedom Caucus, said of the tax cut law. “I think there were tens of millions of people more than they anticipated, who would take those deductions, so it's obviously very popular.”
“I think Americans are happy that we're taking less out of their pocket,” Harris said.
Still, outside groups are spending great gobs of money attempting to boost the public’s awareness and appreciation for the legislation. Americans for Prosperity, for instance, this month announced it spending $5.5 million in ads and voter outreach to promote the law.
Things could change quickly if the Iran war ends soon.
But privately, Republicans are agonizing about the dynamic, as my former colleague Al Weaver reported in NOTUS.
“It’s something that we want to be focused on. Unfortunately …. world events have kind of taken over on it,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) told NOTUS.
Further reading: Senate Republicans Agonize as Trump Tramples on Tax Cut Message, by Al Weaver in NOTUS…
