POLITICS: 2020 Democratic candidates will take part in the fourth primary debate tonight as the field continues to take shape and focus on the party heavyweights who have dominated the campaign so far. As Niall Stanage writes, unless someone on-stage tonight can deliver a knockout performance that allows them to make the jump into the top tier, the primary contest is shaping up to be a two-horse race as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former Vice President Joe Biden continue to separate themselves from the rest of the field. Until recently, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was the third top-tier candidate, but while polling and fundraising put him in the same ballpark as Warren and Biden, he has his own challenges to deal with two weeks after suffering a heart attack and subsequently staying off the campaign trail. Meanwhile, outside of Sen. Kamala Harris's (D-Calif.) brief flirtation with the top-tier after the first Democratic debate, no one else has proved able to make a move, leaving Biden and Warren to pace the field and speculate how other candidates expect to make their mark in the debate. One option is attacking Biden over the ongoing Ukraine saga — something the former VP has warned the field against doing — but the move could be too risky. "Is anyone going to attack Biden on Ukraine? If they do, then by definition they are basically taking Trump's side," said Democratic pollster Paul Maslin. The New York Times: Can Biden deliver the debate performance he needs? Gerald F. Seib: Biden vs. Warren: A difference of philosophy, not just policy. The New York Times: Ohio was set to purge 235,000 Voters. It was wrong about 20 percent. Another question, as Julia Manchester notes in her preview of tonight's debate: Will anyone will go after Warren as she continues her climb in the primary field, with some polls recently showing that she has eclipsed Biden? In recent weeks, the most prominent 2020 primary foe to do so has been Sanders. Most recently, he derided her as a "capitalist," arguing further that he is "the only candidate" who's going to push back against "the ruling class of this country." Other candidates could, but none have showed a willingness to take an overt shot at the current queen of the field.
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Another major question heading into tonight is the role the ongoing impeachment inquiry could have on the primary, especially in the coming months as Democrats go further down that road. As Amie Parnes reports, some Democrats are worried about what it could mean for the primary contest and that it could serve as a shadow looming over the campaign. "It's a really bad move," said one Democratic strategist. "It's going to loom large over the primary season. And the candidates are damned if they do and damned if they don't. If they miss the impeachment proceedings, it won't look good either." One thing to watch ahead of the debate is an interview ABC News is releasing with Hunter Biden. The conversation is expected to air on "Good Morning America" today as the Bidens continue to face headwinds and attacks from the right on the Ukraine issue. On top of the debate, Tuesday also marks a major deadline for the 2020 field as they must file their third-quarter fundraising reports with the Federal Election Commission. While most of the 2020 candidates have revealed their fundraising totals, some have not, and most of those who have not are holding back some key numbers, including cash on hand. The Associated Press: Biden, Warren, Sanders face scrutiny at Democratic debate. CNBC: Michael Bloomberg keeps talking to allies about running for president as Biden struggles against Warren. *** CONGRESS & IMPEACHMENT: House investigators deposed Fiona Hill, the president's former top Russia aide, on Capitol Hill on Monday as lawmakers move forward with an impeachment push and look to uncover information about Rudy Giuliani's work with Ukrainian officials (The Hill). According to The Wall Street Journal, Hill told investigators that she, along with other White House officials, grew alarmed by the administration's prodding of the Ukrainians to open certain investigations to the point where they brought their concerns to a White House lawyer. After Hill told John Bolton, the former national security adviser, of what Giuliani was doing, Bolton instructed her to talk to the lawyer (The New York Times). "I am not part of whatever drug deal Rudy and [White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney] are cooking up," Bolton said, according to Hill's testimony. A former special assistant to the president, Hill was expected to testify that Gordon Sondland and Giuliani went around the National Security Council and official White House protocol to speak directly with the president about Ukraine, which NBC News reported prior to her appearance (The Hill). Additionally, Hill was expected to testify about the objections by her and other administration officials to the president's removal of Marie Yovanovitch, the former ambassador to Ukraine, back in May (The New York Times). Reuters: Exclusive: Trump lawyer Giuliani says he was paid $500,000 to consult on indicted associate's firm, Fraud Guarantee, based in Boca Raton, Fla. The Hill: Trump's GOP impeachment firewall holds strong. The Washington Post: House Democrats express greater confidence about impeachment showdown with Trump. While Hill testified inside, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) tried to stir the pot early in the day, attempting to sit in on her testimony despite not being on any of the three investigatory committees. Gaetz tried appealing to the House parliamentarian to no avail. "I went into the committee room and [House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.)] told me I had to leave," Gaetz told reporters in the Capitol. "And we waited for a ruling from the parliamentarian. And at that time, I had to depart" (The Hill). Hill's appearance was the start of a busy week for investigators. On Wednesday, investigators are slated to interview Michael McKinley, a former senior adviser to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, as House Democrats look into Pompeo's involvement and impact on the State Department (The Washington Post). One day later, investigators are expected to depose Sondland a week after the State Department blocked him from testifying. Additionally, House investigators have multiple deadlines for administration figures to comply with subpoenas, including Pence and Giuliani. Politico: Trump's former Russia aide testifies in impeachment probe. The Washington Post: "Disruptive diplomat" Sondland, a key figure in Trump impeachment furor, long coveted ambassadorship. Jonathan Allen: Why Democrats are sure Adam Schiff is the perfect person to take on Trump. |
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