| President Biden begins a high-stakes week with a new diplomatic push backed by as much certainty as U.S. intelligence can provide that Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to move military forces deep into Ukraine, despite the international upheaval and carnage that would follow. Although Biden began weeks ago to prepare the American people for a possible war in Europe, his public rhetoric on Friday shifted from “if” to “when.” In Moscow today, Putin will hold a meeting of his security council and deliver a speech amid what the Kremlin described as rising tensions (The New York Times). French President Emmanuel Macron early Monday spoke with Putin for a second time in two days amid a flurry of last-ditch outreach that includes the West’s urging of a Biden-Putin summit, which the White House has agreed to “in principle” as long as Russia does not invade its neighbor, according to a U.S. written statement (The New York Times). As of this writing, a Kremlin spokesman called the summit idea “premature,” without rejecting it outright (The Guardian). And there’s news this morning from AFP that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will speak today with Putin by phone. Biden has said diplomacy remains the preferred path, but for days he has all but conceded the combined efforts in Washington, London, Paris, Brussels, Berlin, Kyiv and among other Western leaders and diplomats appear not to have dissuaded the Russian president. The Associated Press: Russia on Sunday reversed its pledge to withdraw an estimated 30,000 of its forces from Kremlin ally Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north. The Washington Post: Russia has plans to target and kill dissidents and certain vulnerable populations in Ukraine following an invasion and military occupation, the United States advised the United Nations in a recent letter that did not specify the intelligence behind such assertions. The Kremlin denied the report. The French foreign minister was expected to speak by phone today with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (Reuters). Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday he would confer once again with Lavrov on Thursday, if an attack has not occurred (CNN). If any summit between Biden and Putin is organized, it would only happen following the Blinken-Lavrov conversation, and only if Russia has not moved against Ukraine in the interim, U.S. officials indicated. The Hill: Crises keep Biden off the road and in the Oval Office. The Hill: Russia denies invasion plans. In the White House and at the Pentagon, eyes are on what Russia is doing with an estimated 190,000 troops poised to pounce on Ukraine, plus the Russian medical officers, emergency blood supplies and munitions at the ready. The New York Times, The Washington Post and CBS News reported that U.S. intelligence learned last week that the Kremlin had given the order for Russian military units to invade. The question in NATO and among Western capitals is when. Intelligence officials have told the administration they have a high level of confidence in the intelligence they have gathered about Russian military planning, as well as about plots by Moscow’s intelligence agencies to try and create a pretext for war. The New York Times: Satellite images collected over the weekend showed a new phase of Russian military readiness, with units closer to Ukraine’s border and troops along tree lines. “Everything leading up to the actual invasion appears to be taking place,’’ Blinken said early on Sunday during an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union.” The Associated Press: Vice President Harris, during a speech delivered before returning from Germany on Sunday, said there is a “real possibility of war” in Europe. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who has conferred with his counterparts in Eastern Europe as the United States positioned additional forces in Poland to bolster NATO, said Sunday that the international community need only “look at what’s on the other side of the Ukrainian border” to see the force Putin is preparing. “We see a lot of tanks and armored vehicles there. We see a lot of artillery. We see rocket forces,” Austin told ABC News. “If he employs that kind of combat power, it will certainly create enormous casualties within the civilian population and so this could create a tragedy, quite frankly” (The Hill). The Ukrainian people, many of them determined to keep calm and carry on, have also betrayed their agitation. Some in Eastern Ukraine, uncertain about what’s ahead, have fled into Russia. Others have taken to the streets of Kyiv and Odessa, embracing the flag of Ukraine (pictured below) and vowing to fight any invasion ordered by Putin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told a Munich conference of diplomats and international leaders on Saturday that the West had appeased Russia for more than a decade. “Result? At least the annexation of Crimea and aggression against my state,” he said. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, speaking on Sunday at the same conference, called for global preemptive punishment aimed at Russia for taking its grievances about NATO’s eastward expansion to the brink of war. “Russia has to be stopped right now,” he said. “I'm officially saying that there are all the grounds to implement at least a part of sanctions prepared against Russia, now” (Reuters). Reuters: While the West would sanction Russia and isolate Putin if an attack takes place, China is expected to back Moscow diplomatically. Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China told Western leaders amid global discussions about Russia over the weekend that “the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of any country should be respected and safeguarded.” 
© Associated Press/Alex Brandon The Associated Press: Following an attack on Ukraine, Russia would be cut off from markets, tech goods, vows European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen. The New York Times: Oil prices climb as Russia menaces Ukraine. Sunday Talk Shows: Ukraine crisis dominates. The New York Times: Once he kept Russia at a distance. Now, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko is doing the Kremlin’s bidding. Reuters: A Ukrainian reservist learns fighting skills she hopes never to use. 
© Associated Press/Emilio Morenatti Here’s what else we’re watching this week: > Biden has said he will nominate a Black woman to the Supreme Court before the end of February. Will we learn her identity this week? Democratic advocacy groups say they are mobilized to help the president seat his choice by this summer when Justice Stephen Breyer retires (The Hill). The three known top contenders for the job are federal appeals court Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, 51, California state Supreme Court judge Leondra Kruger, 45, and U.S. District Court Judge J. Michelle Childs, 55 (The Associated Press). > The police in Washington, D.C., will increase security beginning on Tuesday until days after Biden’s State of the Union address on March 1. They’re preparing for any demonstrators, including convoys of truckers opposed to cross-border COVID-19 vaccination requirements (WUSA 9). > Scientists are debating whether we should worry about the BA.2 version of the coronavirus, which is 30 percent more transmissible than omicron and perhaps a variant all its own. Suddenly, new research in Japan suggests it may cause more severe disease and slip past key weapons used against COVID-19. It swiftly became the dominant variant in the Netherlands, where researchers say booster doses of available vaccines are effective against it. Genomic studies have found BA.2 in 47 of 50 states, and 74 countries (CNN). It is spreading fast in South Africa (Bloomberg). > On Thursday, economists and analysts want to see the government’s latest update on gross domestic product in the fourth quarter and in all of 2021. On Friday, attention turns to personal income and spending in January, a barometer of demand during a high-inflation period for consumers. > Will the Conservative Political Action Conference this week shape up to be a face-off between former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), the two foremost 2024 contenders for the GOP nomination? Other notables scheduled to address the Orlando conference: former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), and Sens. Rick Scott (Fla.) and Marco Rubio (Fla.). | 
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