Campaign Report: What Texas tells us about the midterms

View in your browser CAMPAIGN REPORT What Texas tells us about the midterms © Associated Press/Eric Gay Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, where we'll be tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox each week leading up to November's election.  Today we're diving into the Texas primaries and President Biden's State of the Union address, and what they mean for November.  Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@thehill.com), Tal Axelrod (taxelrod@thehill.com) and Mychael Schnell (mschnell@thehill.com).   Reading the tea leaves in Texas © Greg Nash - Associated Press/Eric Gay While a number of key races in Tuesday’s Texas primaries resulted in runoffs, the first elections of this year’s campaign cycle could tell us about what to expect going forward. While progressives had a mixed night, Tuesday’s results gave the liberal flank of the party hope after suffering a series of losses in 2021. Greg Casar was the big progressive winner of the night, prevailing in the Democratic primary for the state’s 35th Congressional District. The Austin city council member will likely coast to victory in November, giving progressives another voice in the House. But the path for Jessica Cisneros, the progressive running to unseat incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) in the 28th Congressional District, is not as clear-cut. Cisneros and Cuellar both advanced to a runoff on Tuesday after neither received 50 percent of the vote. While it may not have been the decisive victory progressives were hoping for, last night’s results give Cisneros a chance to potentially close the gap with Cuellar, who is seen as vulnerable this cycle. The nine-term incumbent is involved in an FBI investigation between Azerbaijan and U.S. businessmen.  From the Republican vantage point, Cisneros and Cuellar are both vulnerable. While Cuellar finds himself tied to a federal investigation, Republicans argue that Cisneros is out of touch with the district, which has grown more conservative in recent years. In general, South Texas has become fertile ground for Republicans and last night saw a number of victories for Hispanic Republican women in particular. In the 28th district, Cassy Garcia appeared to be headed toward a runoff with Sandra Whitten in the GOP primary. Meanwhile, Republican Monica De La Cruz won her primary in the state’s 15th Congressional District, defeating eight other GOP opponents. Mayra Flores won her GOP primary in the 34th Congressional District. Former President Trump’s endorsement: While Trump touted the night as a victory for his endorsed candidates, it was not enough to save incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) from a runoff against state Land Commissioner George P. Bush. Paxton is facing a number of legal and ethical challenges including an indictment in state court for securities fraud and allegations of bribery and abuse of office. It was thought that Trump’s endorsement could at least potentially get him over the 50 percent mark. Now it’s worth asking how much other GOP primary candidates running in other races across the country will value Trump’s backing.   THE COUNTDOWN 251 days until the 2022 midterm elections Biden's speech aims to turn things around © The Associated Press/Saul Loeb President Biden’s first year in the White House has been filled with ups and downs.   He helped shepherd through Congress a massive COVID-19 relief bill and the largest infrastructure investment in decades. But he has also suffered painful declines in his approval rating at a time when his party is already staring down dim political prospects in this year’s midterm election.  His State of the Union address on Tuesday – his first such speech since taking office – served as something of a symbolic effort to turn things around after a difficult several months.  What he said: Biden dedicated much of his speech to touting Western unity against Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, effectively rejecting Republican criticism that he hadn’t done enough to counter Moscow’s aggression.   But Biden also used the speech to revive parts of his stalled domestic agenda, while pushing back on the GOP’s characterizations of him and his administration as firmly aligned with the far-left flank of the Democratic Party. He rejected calls from some progressives to “defund the police,” insisted on the need to keep schools open amid the pandemic and re-upped his commitment to support Ukraine – talking points that drew bipartisan rounds of applause.  But, but but: The question is whether Biden’s speech was enough to give Democrats a boost in an otherwise troubling midterm election year. His party is already facing historical headwinds, and regardless of his rhetoric, it’s hard to overstate the challenges Biden is facing in his job.   And despite the few instances of bipartisan bonhomie during Biden’s speech, Republicans aren’t going to let up in their criticism of the president and his party. Minutes after the address, the Republican National Committee (RNC) hammered the president, saying that “he did not take responsibility for his failures, offered no real solutions to the many crises Americans are facing, and instead doubled down on his disastrous and polarizing agenda.”  SENATE DEMS TARGET GOP OVER TAXES The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is mailing 24 GOP Senate candidates copies of an agenda released by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) last week, which called on all Americans to pay income taxes. While Scott chairs the DSCC’s counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, he released the plan in a personal capacity last week. However, the DSCC has worked to tie it to all Senate Republicans. The states targeted in the mailer include: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.   POLL WATCH Narrowing the gap: A new poll out Wednesday from The Economist and YouGov shows Democrats holding their advantage on the generic congressional ballot – the survey question that asks whether respondents would rather elect a Democrat or Republican to Congress. The latest poll found Democrats leading the GOP 42 percent to 38 percent, giving them a 4-point lead. Still, that’s down slightly from a similar poll released last week that showed Democrats with a 6-point advantage. You can check out the full Economist/YouGov poll here.  Let the O'Rourke-Abbott battle commence © Associated Press/LM Otero Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), hot off a blowout win in the Democratic primary for Texas governor, released a new statewide ad on Wednesday to kick off his general election campaign. The just-over-one-minute digital spot launched O’Rourke’s “People of Texas Campaign,” during which the former congressman will visit every part of the Lone Star State to meet with voters. The ad comes one day after O’Rourke walloped the primary competition, securing more than 90 percent of the vote. The road ahead, however, will likely be steep for the ex-congressman as he takes on two-term Gov. Greg Abbott (R), who clinched the GOP nomination last night with close to 70 percent of the vote. An Emerson College/The Hill poll conducted last month had Abbott leading O’Rourke by seven percentage points. Abbott also has a significantly larger war chest to drive his campaign: January financial reports showed Abbott with more than $62 million in the bank, and O’Rourke with just $6 million on hand.  That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week.  Sign Up for CAMPAIGN REPORT Forward CAMPAIGN REPORT Privacy Policy  |   Manage Subscriptions  |   Unsubscribe Email to a friend  |   Sign Up for Other Newsletters The Hill 1625 K Street, NW 9th Floor, Washington DC 20006 © 1998 - 2022 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved.

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