Campaign Report — Recession politics seep into midterms

View Online    CAMPAIGN REPORT CAMPAIGN REPORT   Recession politics seep into midterms © Associated Press/Evan Vucci Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday leading up to November's election.      Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@thehill.com) and Caroline Vakil (cvakil@thehill.com).   Fears of a recession could roil Dem chances © Associated Press/Seth Wenig Whether or not the U.S. is heading toward a recession will be debated ad nauseam in the coming weeks and months. But Republicans aren't waiting for a consensus.   With the news on Thursday that the U.S. economy contracted by 0.9 percent, marking the second quarter in a row that the country's gross domestic product shrank, Republicans added a potentially potent new political weapon to their arsenal just shy of three months out from Election Day.   Minutes after the Commerce Department announced the drop in GDP, the Club for Growth, a powerful conservative group, unveiled a new ad blaming President Biden's "radical" economic and environmental agenda for thrusting the country into what it called the "Biden recession."   It's a talking point that's sure to dominate Republican messaging for the foreseeable future. The GOP and its candidates have already spent more than a year hammering Democrats over government spending and for rising prices that have sent inflation to its highest level in decades. Now, amid fears that the U.S. may be entering a recession, Democrats are likely to have a harder time arguing that the country's post-pandemic economic recovery is still going strong.   It's the economy, stupid: Republicans are effectively betting that, regardless of what happens between now and Election Day, the economy will trump virtually every other issue on the board. Democrats have seized on the Supreme Court's ruling last month overturning Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion case, to argue that their congressional majorities are necessary to serve as a bulwark against the erosion of other rights, like same-sex marriage.   But polling has shown again and again that voters are more concerned about economic issues – inflation, gas prices and employment, among other things – than they are just about anything else. The latest economic report isn't likely to alleviate those concerns.   The economic news is also liable to complicate a major win for Democrats. On Wednesday, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced that they had reached a deal on a sweeping climate, tax and health care bill. While the tax increases included in the package would fall largely on large corporations and private equity firms, Republicans have been quick to accuse Democrats of seeking to hike Americans' taxes at a time when many are already struggling with rising prices.   COUNTDOWN 102 Days until the 2022 midterm elections The governors already getting a 2024 look © Associated Press/Rich Pedroncelli It's no secret that voters aren't entirely thrilled with either political party's current standard-bearers. President Biden's approval rating is plumbing new lows, while recent polling shows that majorities don't want to see either him or former President Trump run for the White House again in 2024.   Enter the nation's governors, several of whom have begun taking on new prominence as voters begin to feel out potential 2024 contenders.   There's Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, of course, who has stirred White House speculation for well over a year. But Republicans have also begun to throw around Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin's name as a prospective presidential hopeful. Also on the list of potential GOP candidates: Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.   On the Democratic side, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been getting some attention for recent appearances outside of the Golden State. Earlier this month, he went on the air in Florida with an ad hammering DeSantis – an unusual move for any politician that doesn't have political ambitions beyond their home state.   Another governor getting some attention is Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who's been flexing his political muscles more aggressively as he seeks a second term this year.   It's not unusual for Americans to look to governors when they consider future presidential hopefuls. After all, governors tend to be more popular among their constituents than federal elected officials and they already have experience serving in a government executive role. Since 1976, half of the presidents elected previously served as governors.   As Kristin Davison, a political adviser to Youngkin, told Julia this week, governors are simply a natural fit for the presidency: "They're both executive roles. Governors really have the ability to impact people's lives so directly on a daily basis."   POLL WATCH If President Biden doesn't run again in 2024, Democrats say they'd most prefer to see Vice President Kamala Harris or next up, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), according to a NewsNation-Decision Desk HQ poll out today.   Among Democrats surveyed in the poll, 31 percent said they'd prefer to see Harris, followed by Newsom at 17 percent.   The poll also showed that a majority of voters - 61 percent - do not want to see the president seek reelection. The polling comes as Americans are increasingly saying they would rather not see another Biden presidential bid, including among Democrats.   While some Democrats like Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) have said they'd support the president should be run again, watch for more noncommittal answers from Democrats like Rep. Cori Bush's (D-Mo.), who declined to make her stance on that clear, or Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Pence breaks with Trump — again © Associated Press/Patrick Semansky Former Vice President Pence has split with former President Trump in Wisconsin's gubernatorial race, backing former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) over Trump's preferred candidate, businessman and Army veteran Tim Michels (R).     Pence isn't the only one straying from the former president. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) also said this week he would be backing Kleefisch. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who has received Trump's endorsement, said he would not be attending the former president's Wisconsin rally next month over Trump's support for Michels.   That sets up another proxy war between Trump and Pence, who have taken sides in other primaries, such as Arizona's gubernatorial primary. Trump backed former local news anchor Kari Lake (R), who has pushed dubious claims about the 2020 election, while Pence backed developer Karrin Taylor Robson (R), considered more of an establishment Republican. AD WATCH The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is pouring seven figures into a new advertising effort to court Latino voters in crucial battleground districts.   The first radio ads in the campaign are set to run in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas, and looks to cast Republicans as "extremists" who have "no plan to help" working people.   The advertising investment is part of a $30 million effort to mobilize voters of color ahead of the midterms. It also comes amid concerns among some Democrats that Latino voters may be drifting away from the party and its candidates.     Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania: Senate candidate Mehmet Oz's campaign is out with their first TV ad in the general election, which hits Democratic challenger and Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) over his stances on crime.    "Sanctuary cities. Weak prosecutors. Crime skyrocketing. Failed liberal policies are making us less safe. Yet John Fetterman wants to release one-third of prisoners and eliminate life sentences for murderers," a narrator in the ad says. "Emptying our prisons means more hardened criminals on the streets. Incredibly, Fetterman says 'get as many folks out as we can.' Crazy, dangerous ideas are hurting our communities. We need a change."   The ad is part of a close to $2 million ad buy spanning several weeks and airing in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh markets, according to Oz's campaign.  That's it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill's Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week.  Sign up for Campaign Report Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe Sign Up for Other Newsletters 1625 K Street NW, 9th Floor, Washington, DC 20006 © 1998 - 2022 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved.