Good Monday evening. This is Daniel Allott with The Hill's Top Opinions.
Republican presidential heir-apparent Ron DeSantis is suddenly seeing his momentum slow, writes political consultant DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN, with the chief beneficiary being former President Trump.
After reviewing some recent polls, Schoen posits that the Florida governor's problem is not as simple as his unwillingness to attack Trump directly. Rather, it's that DeSantis is struck between "the two opposing worldviews that exist within The Republican Party."
Schoen writes:
"On one hand, he is courting the establishment figures who would welcome a return to pre-Trump party politics. On the other, he is working to appeal to the party's far-right populist wing, many of whom are Trump loyalists and will likely be further emboldened to rally around the former president if, as reports suggest, Trump is indicted this week."
DeSantis hasn't declared his candidacy, of course. But Schoen, who once served as an adviser to President Clinton, doesn't see how he will be able to cut into Trump's core base of support. And by trying to do so (by, for instance, endorsing conservative positions on abortion and guns, as he's done in Florida), DeSantis will likely "dissuade the more moderate Republicans he is courting, who could defect to one of the other mainstream candidates."
If he runs, DeSantis will still be a formidable candidate, argues Schoen. But even if he solves his "positioning" problem, DeSantis will at some point need to take on Trump directly.
"There is always a chance that DeSantis will be able to overcome these challenges and carve out a coalition as the campaign progresses," Schoen concludes. "But in all likelihood, he will create room for other non-Trump candidates to ascend, which in the end will translate into a victory for Donald Trump."
Read Schoen's op-ed here.
Not subscribed to The Hill's Top Opinions? Sign up here.
No comments:
Post a Comment