Former President Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will both address the Libertarian Party convention this weekend, underscoring the importance third-party voters could have on the 2024 election.
The polls paint a murky picture about what Kennedy's presence might mean for Trump and President Biden, injecting volatility into a close presidential race.
Some national polls indicate Kennedy could draw more from Biden, while some polls in battleground states show Kennedy could draw support away from Trump, The Hill's Julia Manchester reports.
In a close race, these third-party and independent voters could swing the outcome one way or the other.
That makes this weekend's Libertarian nominating convention a prime battleground for Trump and Kennedy. These two political outsiders will be looking to woo Libertarian voters who are used to being treated as interlopers in a two-party system.
As the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute notes here, it's quite strange for a political party to invite the nominee of another political party to its nominating convention for a campaign speech.
Cato's David Boaz writes that most Libertarians should be "appalled and mystified about why a self-proclaimed libertarian party would invite a would-be autocrat to dominate coverage of its convention."
Trump's presence will indeed draw loads of media scrutiny to a nominating convention that is traditionally overlooked by the mainstream media.
There have been high hopes for Libertarian candidates in the past, most notably for former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who hoped to get on the debate stage with Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
After notching double-digit support in a couple of early polls, Johnson's campaign flamed out, and he drew only 3.3 percent support nationally against two historically unpopular candidates. Still, many pundits blamed Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein for Clinton's loss, suggesting that she would have won if that third-party vote had swung her way.
The libertarian-leaning outlet Reason posited that the Libertarian vote helped swing the race to Biden in 2020 because Trump failed to rally right-leaning third-party and independent voters. That year, Reason states, the share of third-party and independent voters dipped significantly from 2016, while Biden's share of the national vote climbed higher than Clinton's.
To win in 2024, Trump may need to draw strong support from the political outsiders he's courting this weekend. It's clear he views Kennedy as a direct threat in that effort.
More campaign coverage:
The Trump campaign is hoping it neutralized a different threat this week when former rival for the GOP nomination, Nikki Haley, endorsed his candidacy.
In a warning sign for Trump, some Republican primary voters have continued to vote for Haley despite the fact that she dropped out of the race months ago.
Trump says now that he expects Haley to join his campaign team in some capacity.
The Hill's Alex Gangitano and Julia Manchester explain why that's a big deal for Trump.
Related coverage:
- Trump and DeSantis put personal primary fight behind them (AP)
- Ohio governor calls special session to address Biden's ballot issues (Cleveland.com)
- Biden's narrow path to victory goes through the Midwest (Liberal Patriot)
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