Today is Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) moment of truth.
On the first day of the 119th Congress, will his fellow House Republicans let him keep the Speaker's gavel? Or will Johnson's quest to remain in charge of a fractious conference look more like that of his predecessor, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who endured a 15-ballot odyssey to win the post?
Late Thursday, Johnson, who has received President-elect Trump's crucial endorsement, was still scrambling for votes. In the 119th Congress's razor-tight GOP majority, he can afford to lose only one Republican vote provided there's full attendance, and all Democrats vote for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
He's already lost that one vote: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has repeatedly said he won't vote for Johnson. And he faces another critical skeptic in Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), who recently called on Johnson to make a series of public commitments on spending issues.
"I think those are your big two right now," a senior House Republican told The Hill of Massie and Spartz.
Another wildcard: Rep. Michael Cloud (R-Texas), who said Thursday that he is looking for a "third option" to avoid "the status quo" in the House.
The other holdouts are largely seeking promises on spending cuts and assurances that rank-and-file members will be involved in negotiations for high-stakes legislation moving forward, multiple sources told The Hill's Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell, two topics that hard-line Republicans have griped about for months.
One source said each holdout had specific, individual concerns, making it more difficult for Johnson to appease the entire group.
Still, Johnson voiced optimism Thursday.
"People are talking through process changes they want, and those kinds of things," he said. "And I'm open to that. And I think tomorrow's going to go well."
But Johnson is trying to combat the past as a prologue. The Speaker has been clear that he does not want to make side deals with different factions like McCarthy did, sources told The Hill. The former Speaker's deals notably included a lowering of the threshold for a motion to vacate to just one member. That allowed former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) to kickstart a vote that ousted McCarthy in October 2023, ushering in two weeks of chaos that culminated in Johnson's own election as Speaker.
Johnson's outlook turned a bit rosier Thursday as he met with members and after strategizing with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. As for the holdouts, one undecided Republican lawmaker predicted the group would ultimately back Johnson, but would not say if that support would come before the first round of voting Friday or after a few failed ballots.
"We're probably likely to support Johnson, but want to basically get a vision put down on paper and understand that things are gonna change going forward," the lawmaker said.
There are other unknowns to consider. Johnson's performance during the Speaker election will speak to his ability to wrangle his conference over the next two years, after the last Congress was marked by Republican infighting and unproductive legislative sessions.
Further, Johnson has Trump's support now, but a poor showing today at noon could affect his relationship with the president-elect and his legislative priorities.
For an idea of Johnson and new Senate Majority Leader John Thune's (R-S.D.) to-do list, The Hill's Al Weaver breaks down everything you need to know about the first day of the new Congress.
▪ The Hill: Whip list: Lawmakers to watch in today's Speaker vote.
▪ The Hill: Five things to watch during today's vote.
The Senate's big job is confirming Trump's Cabinet picks. As The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports, Trump's nominees face a slow grind in the Senate despite calls by GOP senators to speed up the confirmation of Trump's picks in the wake of the attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas. Trump's choices to head the Department of Homeland Security, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R), and Justice Department, former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, are on faster tracks, but his picks to head the FBI and Defense Department and to serve as director of national intelligence — Kash Patel, Pete Hegseth and former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, respectively — are the most controversial of his nominees, and they face protracted fights.
Other hurdles? Paperwork holdups and the slow start of FBI background checks.
"There's been a challenge in getting completed background checks and getting the Office of Government Ethics 278 form done for nominees, and that's slowed things down for a number of committees," a Senate GOP aide said.
President Biden on Thursday awarded the Presidential Citizens Medal to Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), who got a standing ovation from former colleagues, for their work leading the bipartisan select House committee that probed the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
Democratic lawmakers and many Republicans initially condemned that riot as a deadly melee carried out by violent Trump supporters, many of whom said after their arrests and criminal convictions that they believed they were heeding Trump's call to halt the congressional certification of Biden's 2020 election victory. Subsequently, Trump denied any wrongdoing, argued that Cheney should be in jail and pledged if elected president to pardon members of the 2021 mob as "patriots."
Lawmakers and law enforcement officials remain on edge ahead of major upcoming gatherings in Washington amid this week's FBI investigations into a terror attack in New Orleans that killed 14 people and a violent Las Vegas suicide and explosion in front of a Trump-branded hotel. The two events are said by investigators to be unrelated, but each involved Army veterans and rented trucks. There will be a state funeral Jan. 9 for former President Carter, a political event Jan. 19 at Capital One Arena organized by Trump and the Jan. 20 inauguration at the Capitol.
The Hill: The terror attack in New Orleans put a spotlight on inauguration security.
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