What do the holdouts want? What can sway them?
Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) fate rests with a handful of House Republicans who, despite a clear endorsement from President-elect Trump, are opposing or withholding support for the Louisiana Republican ahead of the Speaker election on the House floor on Friday.
Those who remember the drawn-out Speaker's election two years ago may be feeling déjà vu. It took 15 rounds of voting over four days to elect former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in January 2023.
But unlike that saga, which came after months of calls from the House Freedom Caucus for structural changes and other commitments from McCarthy, there is a lack of specific demands from the holdouts — most of whom are seeking a clear "plan" from Johnson. Many have felt burned by how he handled numerous major bills over the last year.
It's also tougher math for Johnson, who can afford only one Republican defection in the razor-thin majority, assuming all members are present and voting for a candidate. (More details on Speaker math here.)
Johnson said on Fox News's "Hannity" on Monday that he has been in contact with the holdouts.
"We're in constant conversation about all this. I think that those members and all of them want to be a part of these solutions. They made big promises to their constituents in this campaign cycle, and we got to deliver upon them," Johnson said. "Now it's the media and the left that wants to divide us and distract us. We can't fall into that trap."
In the lead-up to the Speaker election, here are five holdouts to watch:
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas): Roy was a key figure in negotiating agreements that eventually resulted in McCarthy's election, such as increasing representation of hardline conservative members in key committee posts and lowering the threshold to force a vote to oust the Speaker.
But this time around, it is not clear what specific commitments Johnson could make to appease Roy. The Texas congressman voiced frustrations about how Johnson has handled numerous issues over the last year in a Fox Business interview on Tuesday, such as frustrations about spending that the House approved that was not accompanied by spending cuts and that the House's 72-hour rule to review legislation before passage was repeatedly circumvented.
"We need to have a plan before January 3rd. The Speaker needs to speak to it if he wants to have all of our support," Roy said.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.): Massie is the only lawmaker so far to say he will vote for a candidate other than Johnson, and he has signaled that Trump's endorsement is not swaying his position. On Tuesday, he said that Republicans will lose the House in 2026 if Johnson remains Speaker, dismissing arguments that Republicans could not find a viable alternative in a timely manner.
"He was only electable the first time because he hadn't held any type of leadership position, nor had he ever fought for anything, so no one disliked him and everyone was tired of voting. He won by being the least objectionable candidate, and he no longer possesses that title," Massie wrote in a post on the social platform X.
Keep watch, though, on whether Massie softens his position on Johnson at all. He could register his displeasure without doing more to threaten Johnson's gavel if he votes "present" rather than for another candidate.
Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.): The Ukrainian-born congresswoman is a major wildcard in the Speaker vote, given her history of odd positions and flip-flopping that keeps members guessing.
Earlier this month, Spartz declared that she would not sit on House committees or participate in House GOP conferences — "I will not be involved in circuses," Spartz said in a statement — because she would rather focus on helping "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) efforts.
She has called on Johnson to make public commitments on spending issues, such as creating an "emergency fiscal working group," and a plan to deliver on Trump's agenda beyond what Johnson has already outlined publicly. Johnson spoke with Spartz for about 45 minutes on Monday, he said on Fox News.
"We'll have a meeting with him. We had discussions. But I don't trust that he's going to do it. So I think that he publicly needs to say what he's going to do," Spartz said on "Bannon's War Room" on Tuesday.
Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.): Harris, the newly reelected chair of the House Freedom Caucus, had a key role in negotiating an internal House GOP deal to raise the threshold to trigger the "motion to vacate" the Speaker to nine members, helping Johnson get unanimously renominated as Speaker in November.
And even as Johnson was facing backlash on an initial short-term funding bill, Harris said he still supported Johnson. But that changed a few days later, when Harris said he was "undecided on what leadership should look like in the 119th Congress," citing concerns about new spending not offset by cuts.
How Harris handles the Speaker vote will set the tone for his leadership of the Freedom Caucus over the next year.
Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.): Biggs has the same spending and process gripes with Johnson that many of his Freedom Caucus colleagues like Harris and Roy have.
"There are some issues I think that need to be worked out, specifically dealing with the budget issues," Biggs said on Fox News shortly after Trump endorsed Johnson on Monday.
But Biggs has historically taken a more aggressive stance in key Speakership matters than Roy and Harris. He voted "present" on the 15th Speaker ballot in January 2023 that handed McCarthy the gavel, and he was one of eight Republicans who ousted McCarthy nine months later.
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