Bro, what's going on with Trump and younger male voters? |
It's no surprise to anyone that President Trump's approval ratings have been sinking since his trade war kicked off. Just Google "Trump approval ratings" and you will be awash in coverage of the steep decline for Trump as voters soured on Trump's handling of the economy, once his strongest suit. Yes, but … The typical story of a new presidency is that a honeymoon phase lasts through, say, August of the first year before gravity sets in. That was the case for former President Biden and for Trump in his first term. But Trump is in a different spot than his modern predecessors. As a return visitor to the Oval Office, there's a lot less fluidity in the public opinion about the commander in chief. It is notable that Trump is increasingly unpopular, but maybe not surprising given that he was already the best-known figure in American public life in decades when he took the oath of office the second time. When Elizabeth Taylor and Richard Burton married for the second time, the honeymoon was shorter too. And so it goes for America's on-again-off-again romance with Donald Trump. Trump started at a higher register than he did in 2017, with an average approval in high-quality national polls of nearly 48 percent at the end of January, and an average disapproval of about 44 percent for a net score of 3.4 points to the good side. That was about 3 points better than it had been eight years ago. Today, Trump is underwater by 8 points, with about 44 percent approving and about 52 percent disapproving. That 11-point swing is remarkable by the standard of the typical January-August decline, but if we think of Trump not as a new president but a second-termer, it's perhaps not so surprising that gravity would assert itself within the first 100 days. Nor do we have to wonder what is primarily driving the decline. Trump's overall number matches pretty closely his number on his handling of the economy, as in the latest CNBC poll that finds 44 percent overall approval and 43 percent approval for his handling of the economy. When you tank in what was once your strongest area, the top number is very likely to be dragged down. So, it's a pretty straightforward story. The second-term president who had developed a strong brand on economic performance undertakes a program of economic pain he promises will deliver long-term gain. If the neighborhood pizza place your family had been visiting every week started putting kale in the crust, you'd expect to see some customer dissatisfaction. What we wondered, though, was what was happening with the voters that Republicans nabbed from Democrats in the big swing from 2020 to 2024. Republicans have cheered and Democrats have mourned the big changes among younger male voters, particularly non-white men. If you were looking for one dominant idea in conventional wisdom about the 2024 election, it's the bro vote. Arguably the most effective ad of the 2024 campaign was the Trump campaign's blast against Kamala Harris for supporting transgender initiatives — an ad that dominated airwaves around sports broadcasts in the fall. The bro vote has had Democrats looking for their own Joe Rogan and Republicans extolling the masculine virtues of everything from government spending cuts to taxes on imported goods. So how's it going now? We don't have a ton of high-quality data on subgroups so early in the term, but what we do have suggests that Trump is leaking support with the bros, but that the declines among men overall are approaching levels of serious concern for Republicans. According to the pollsters at Echelon Insights, Trump's support among younger voters, those ages 18 to 34, has held mostly steady since the start of the term, ticking down from 45 percent in February to 42 percent today. There's a sharper descent among Hispanic voters, with Trump tumbling from about break-even in February (49 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval) to the most recent number that leaves him 16 points underwater (42 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval). Given the administration's aggressive moves on deportations, even against those with legal status or long-term residency in the U.S., it's maybe not a surprise that a population with a lot of ties to the immigrant community would sour on Trump sooner than most. But if we step back and look at men overall, not just younger men, we see there's more going on here. The latest Quinnipiac University survey shows an 8-point drop among male voters since the start of Trump's second term, sliding from 57 percent approval and 38 percent disapproval in February to 49 percent approval and 45 percent disapproval this week. He's still above water with men, but 4 points is a far cry from his opening 19-point advantage. And since the president can't go much lower with women (33 percent now compared to 34 percent in February), Trump's overall number is heavily reliant on men. It's still early days, and straight-line projections in politics are usually unwise, but the early indications are that the bros are losing their chill, and that could be big trouble for Republicans as they gear up for a tough midterm cycle. Younger voters are more fickle than their older counterparts, and new arrivals in political coalitions tend to be fickler still. If Trump's economic policies turn off too many younger male voters, it will be hard for the GOP to bring them home. |
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By Chris Stirewalt | Friday, April 18 |
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Net Score: -8.0 points [Average includes: CNBC: 44 percent approve – 51 percent disapprove; Echelon Insights: 47 percent approve – 51 percent disapprove; TIPP: 43 percent approve – 50 percent disapprove; Quinnipiac: 41 percent approve – 53 percent disapprove; Ipsos/Reuters: 43 percent approve – 53 percent disapprove] |
When you think of "Michelin," which of the following comes to mind first? Voted for Harris The tire company: 79 percent The restaurant ratings: 16 percent Voted for Trump The tire company: 84 percent The restaurant ratings: 7 percent [Echelon Insights poll of 1,014 voters, April 2025] |
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The New York Times: "The human brain is so complex that scientific brains have a hard time making sense of it. … In 1979, Francis Crick, the Nobel-prize-winning scientist, concluded that the anatomy and activity in just a cubic millimeter of brain matter would forever exceed our understanding. 'It is no use asking for the impossible,' Dr. Crick wrote. … Forty-six years later, a team of more than 100 scientists has achieved that impossible, by recording the cellular activity and mapping the structure in a cubic millimeter of a mouse's brain — less than one percent of its full volume. In accomplishing this feat, they amassed 1.6 petabytes of data — the equivalent of 22 years of nonstop high-definition video. … More than 130 years have passed since the Spanish neuroscientist Santiago Ramón y Cajal first spied individual neurons under a microscope. … Some neurons excite their neighbors into firing voltage spikes of their own. Some quiet other neurons. Human thought somehow emerges from this mix of excitation and inhibition. But how that happens has remained a tremendous mystery." |
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MAGA diehards unfazed by market spiral: The Wall Street Journal: "At the time the stock market was down 10% from five days earlier, April 2, when tariffs were declared on what Trump called 'Liberation Day.' Major banks were bumping up their predictions of a recession. … To an unusual degree in American politics, the MAGA movement is based on a personal bond between Trump and his followers. … To many loyalists, Trump remains the ultimate businessman and authority on matters of dollars and cents. … Whereas the Biden administration tended to dismiss Americans' complaints about inflation, Trump has leveled with them about the pain to come … a kind of 'foxhole bond' between the president and his supporters for all they had endured together. … I absolutely trust him," said Kenny Cook, a Trump supporter who runs a gravestone business in Mineral Point, Mo. … 'Did you see the market today?' he asked, after Trump's tactical pause. 'I think it's a stroke of genius.'" |
Blue team base pines for high-profile Trump resistance: The New York Times: "Even when they are destined to lose, some Democratic lawmakers have succeeded in spotlighting their resistance to the administration. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey drew outsize attention with a record-breaking, 25-hour speech on the Senate floor, a physical feat of stamina and bladder control that resonated widely — racking up millions of likes on TikTok. … This week, Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland grabbed headlines by flying to El Salvador to press for the return of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia. … Still, it is not yet clear whether Democrats are making much tangible headway. … And many Democratic activists still want a stronger show of resistance from their leaders in Washington. … Many progressives view Senator Chuck Schumer … as out of step and entrenched in the status quo at a time of historic constitutional challenge." |
DNC activist drops $20 million to primary safe seat Dems: The Hill: "DNC [Democratic National Committee] Vice Chair David Hogg's group, Leaders We Deserve, launched a $20 million initiative on Monday aimed at launching primary challenges against House Democrats in safe seats in the hopes of electing a new generation of leaders. … Hogg noted that his group is not blindly seeking to elect young Democrats, but rather seeking to elect young Democrats 'who are ready to meet the moment.' … While the effort is targeting a number of incumbent House Democrats, Hogg was quick to emphasize that it is not targeting front-line House Democrats, or Democrats in competitive districts. … The effort comes as Democratic incumbents have seen a number of challenges from young progressives. … 'What I would tell anyone who wants to be helpful or to donate is to focus on those races where we can take back the majority,' [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Suzan DelBene said]." |
Bernie-backed progressive joins Michigan Senate race: Detroit Free Press: "Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a native Michigander who has served as health director in Detroit and in Wayne County and in 2018 ran second behind Gretchen Whitmer for the Democratic nomination for governor, is running for the U.S. Senate. … El-Sayed's entry into the race gives the Democratic primary its first candidate viewed widely as running in the progressive lane, though he told the Free Press, 'I don't love labels.' … He publicly supported the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the 2024 election, though some progressives …broke with her and the administration. … If elected, he would be the first Muslim to serve in the U.S. Senate. … Other Democrats looking at the race include U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, of Birmingham, former state House Speaker Joe Tate, of Detroit, and state Attorney General Dana Nessel." |
Poll: Californians shrug at hypothetical Harris gubernatorial bid: Politico: "Insiders reported feeling 'indifferent' more than any other emotion to a hypothetical Harris run, while registered voters were more likely to characterize their reaction as 'joyful,' … the tepid finding from the survey suggests that elite enthusiasm may have been short-lived. … 'She's never been that popular in the California political high school.' … Republicans, unsurprisingly, were less keen on a Harris run; the most popular responses among GOP respondents were 'irritated' and 'outraged.' … Independent voters were notably bearish on a Harris candidacy — 26 percent said they felt irritated by the prospect and 21 percent selected 'hopeless.' …. 'It's almost a surprising lack of enthusiasm.' … 'If I were a rival Democrat, I look at those numbers, and I would say she'll start in front, but she's vulnerable to a campaign.'" |
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After pulled Cabinet nomination, Elise Stefanik floats gubernatorial bid — The Hill |
House Dems line up behind ban on congressional stock trading — Politico |
Former Rep. Yadira Caraveo attempts to reclaim Colorado seat — Colorado Sun |
Former Rep. Mayra Flores switches districts as Cuellar awaits trial — Texas Tribune |
Rep. Donald Norcross still hospitalized, return to Washington remains uncertain — New Jersey Globe |
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"I knew all along they'd trade the cow for magic beans. These beans are like the rest, they don't sprout." — Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.) is not surprised that the House Freedom Caucus caved and voted for last week's joint budget resolution. Massie was one of two Republicans to vote no. |
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The New York Times: "Who would spend hours a day watching moose trudge through northern Sweden on their annual spring migration? Lots of people, it turns out. In fact, 'The Great Moose Migration,' an annual Swedish livestream that began on Tuesday, may soon dethrone the opening credits of 'Monty Python and the Holy Grail' as humanity's greatest artistic tribute to the Swedish moose. … Arne Nilsson will devote six hours a day to moderating a Facebook group of over 77,000 fans, many of whom will spend the next three weeks watching moose on SVT, Sweden's national broadcaster. … Unlike many other nature programs, which may have music and narration, the moose march broadcast is raw. It is also live. … 'This isn't staged,' he said. 'This isn't cut together. This is reality TV at its finest.' |
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Write to WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack! |
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Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Nate Moore contributed to this report. |
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