House GOP bill: One big experiment?

Presented by Electronic Payments Coalition — Can the GOP's 'big, beautiful bill' come together?

MORNING REPORT  MORNING REPORT Tuesday, May 13 | By Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch   PRESENTED BY Listen and Subscribe: In today's issue: ▪ Can the GOP's "big, beautiful bill" come together? ▪ Trump in Saudi Arabia gets red carpet welcome ▪ Cornyn trails Paxton in Texas Senate primary polling ▪ Last living American hostage released by Hamas ©️ Associated Press | J. Scott Applewhite House GOP bill: One big experiment? House Republicans this week will test whether the politics of taking away certain federal benefits that most Americans recognize is a good idea.  In a city where politicians are usually rewarded for addition rather than subtraction in government, the crafting of "one big, beautiful" bill, which Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) aims to bring to the floor next week, is something of an experiment. If President Trump told voters while campaigning last year that he would not "touch" Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid, and Republicans cut the federal-state health insurance program, considered essential to many red states, who feels the heat?  If Trump last week advocated higher taxes on the super wealthy and House Republicans reject that idea, as legislative language indicates, who explains tax fairness and the deletion of the president's suggestions? House Republicans on Monday released a nearly 390-page text drafted by the Ways and Means Committee detailing where the GOP wants to raise taxes to cover part of the cost of fulfilling the president's campaign promises.   This week, many Republicans in the House say they have the power to shape the biggest legislative project the GOP will likely attempt during Trump's second term. The stated goal is enacting America's "golden age" of economic and fiscal dominance.  The tax plan would raise the state-and-local tax deduction, end some taxes on tipped income and overtime pay and extend Trump's expiring 2017 tax cuts, partially paid for by rolling back tax breaks for electric cars and clean-energy production. It continues tax breaks for high-income households and estates and would temporarily boost the standard deduction and child tax credit. House Republicans are weighing deep cuts to Medicaid paired with an extension of the Trump tax cuts enacted in 2017. Three committees today will consider huge, controversial parts of the package. And if a sturdy bill makes it through the House, Senate Republicans will have their own version in the wings. Trump's reactions could unravel agreements and concessions the Speaker thought he knitted together. The Washington Post: Nursing homes and elder-care residents could be hit hard by potential Medicaid cuts. More than 60 percent of nursing home stays nationwide are financed through Medicaid. The text of the pending tax language rankled Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) Monday night, signaling trouble for House GOP leaders. He declared the tax provisions headed for markup today to be "dead on arrival" — and accused his party's chief tax writer of acting in "bad faith" by proceeding with a proposal for the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, which he said does not have sufficient backing. "The bill is dead effectively on the floor," he told Politico. LaLota and some colleagues representing districts in high-tax states have rejected as too low a proposed increase in the SALT tax deduction from $10,000 to $30,000. Democrats in the House and Senate say they're practiced at defending entitlements and criticizing tax cuts for the rich, which they argue are at the expense of the middle class. ▪ The Hill: House GOP charges ahead despite deep divisions on Medicaid, SALT. ▪ The Hill: The GOP is legislating a phase-out of green energy tax credits.   ▪ The Hill: What to know about the GOP's Medicaid provisions. ▪ The Associated Press: GOP tax plan costs run high. ▪ The New York Times: The House GOP plans for a far-reaching tax bill would deliver on several of Trump's campaign promises. Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.), the sole Republican populist in the upper chamber, warned his GOP colleagues in an op-ed Monday that cutting Medicaid, a program that benefits more than 70 million low-income people, is "morally wrong" and "politically suicidal." His assessment came a day after House Republicans released a plan that would cut an estimated $715 billion from Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act and could leave 8.6 million people uninsured. The New York Times analysis: Republicans want budget cuts, but not the political consequences.  PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE: Meanwhile, Trump dove into Medicare this week with a new executive order directing the popular federal health program to negotiate 30 percent to 80 percent discounts for prescription drugs, tracking pricing in other countries. Lower-cost prescriptions is a popular idea that crosses U.S. party lines. But Trump's idea spells problems for GOP lawmakers who have traditionally opposed giving Medicare substantial power to bargain for lower drug prices.  Republicans don't want to defy the wishes of Trump, but the prescription drug industry is generous during election years and GOP lawmakers are under heavy pressure to scuttle his order, The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports. Democrats are also in a delicate position. They support federal negotiating power for Medicare drugs but don't want to salute Trump. And they don't want to get sidetracked with a proposal that failed in court during the first Trump term.  Smart Take  with Blake Burman The old debate over SALT is front and center again. The reconciliation bill released by the House Ways and Means Committee on Monday called for a $30,000 state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap for taxpayers making less than $400,000. It's a big increase but falls short for a group of New York Republicans.   I asked Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) what his red line is. He wouldn't divulge it.  "We are in the process of working with leadership and the administration on this," Lawler told me. "Today was the first day in which they actually had a numbers discussion with us, which was absurd."  While the current figure is a nonstarter for Lawler and his New York colleagues, how much higher they want, and what opponents of a big hike could accept, is a key challenge that Republicans will have to navigate before a final package potentially makes it to President Trump's desk.   Burman hosts "The Hill" weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation. 3 Things to Know Today In today's The Movement newsletter: A young, well-connected think tank is at the center of Republicans' efforts to reform Medicaid — and the divide in the party about how far to go with cuts. Click here to sign up and get it in your inbox. The sun is setting on burger dominance. What's next? Fried chicken sandwiches. Who has money to travel over Memorial Day? Perhaps 45.1 million Americans will escape someplace for that long weekend, which is traditionally the start of summer, AAA projects. CONTENT FROM OUR SPONSOR Protect Community Banks from Credit Card Mandates  The Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Mandates will raise costs, limit credit access, and hurt local financial institutions. Carve-outs don't work. Small banks lose while corporate megastores cash in. Learn more.  LEADING THE DAY ©️ Associated Press | Alex Brandon MIDDLE EAST TRIP: Trump was treated in Saudi Arabia today to a red carpet welcome at the outset of the president's first extended foreign trip of his second term. Upon arriving in Riyadh, he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler. He'll also travel to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. He's skipping Israel. "Last time I went to Saudi Arabia, they put up $450 million," Trump told reporters in March. Trump and his aides are expected to focus intensely on financial investments and trade during the trip, but it will be shadowed by a controversial story over a Qatari jet being gifted to the U.S. to be used as a new Air Force One, as well as other developments in the region. Just as he did in his first term, Trump is upending decades of diplomatic protocol with his trip to the Gulf states, which share his transactional approach to foreign policy and are well positioned to fulfill his desire for flashy deals. The Hill's Brett Samuels and Alex Gangitano break down five key things to watch. ▪ The New York Times: Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia today, eager to sign deals worth more than $1 trillion while touring three Gulf states. He's interested in investments in artificial intelligence companies and energy production, as well as multibillion-dollar arms purchases from U.S. weapons manufacturers. ▪ Politico: The Saudis are hurting the U.S. oil industry. Trump is unlikely to talk about it. ▪ The Wall Street Journal: Trump surprised and sidelined Israel ahead of his landmark Middle East trip. ▪ CNN: The U.S. has announced a weapons sale of over $1.4 billion to the UAE, just days before Trump is set to visit. LEAVING ON A JET PLANE: Trump confirmed reports Sunday that his administration is planning to accept a luxury jet, a Boeing 747-8, from the Qatari government. Trump insisted the gift would be received by the Defense Department "in a very public and transparent transaction," as he pushed back on criticism from Democrats who described the arrangement as a grift. "I could be a stupid person and say, 'Oh no, we don't want a free plane.' We give free things out, we'll take one too. And, it helps us out because … we have 40-year-old aircraft," he said Monday morning, referring to Air Force One. "So, I think it's a great gesture from Qatar, I appreciate it very much. I would never be one to turn down that kind of an offer. I could be a stupid person and say, 'No we don't want a free, very expensive airplane,' but I thought it was a great gesture." Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is expected to announce today a hold on all Justice Department political appointees in response to Trump's acceptance of the $400 million luxury jet. ▪ Axios: What to know about Trump's history with Qatar. ▪ The Guardian: "Just wildly illegal": Top Democrats push to censure Trump's plan to accept Qatar jet. ▪ The Washington Post: The Qatar plane gift could awaken Trump's sleeping "corrupt" problem. ▪ NPR: Ethics experts worry about the implications of Trump accepting Qatar's luxury plane. TARIFF DEALS: U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators agreed over the weekend to lower mutually imposed triple-digit tariffs in a significant de-escalation of the ongoing trade war between Washington, D.C., and Beijing. Treasury Department Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that "substantial progress" had been made between the two countries.  Trump said Monday that China "agreed to open up" after the countries announced they would temporarily slash most of the tariffs on each other's goods. In one example, China removed a ban on Boeing deliveries. "We have to get it papered," Trump said at the White House. "But they've agreed to open up China." Analysts are viewing the de-escalation as a halftime break in initial negotiations. The Hill's Tobias Burns breaks down five takeaways from the preliminary arrangement — and explores what it means politically and economically. Trump's Monday deal with China to massively lower tariffs looks like a pivot point for the president, The Hill's Niall Stanage writes in The Memo, after the tariff issue was hurting the markets and hurting him politically. Trump now appears to be seeking a way to de-escalate — and the temporary deal signals a broader shift away from the kind of long-term tariff approach advocated by protectionists like Peter Navarro.  ▪ The Hill: Schumer: China "got the better of Trump." ▪ The Wall Street Journal: Trump's China deal makes sense. How he got here doesn't. ▪ Financial Times: Who blinked first? How the U.S. and China broke their trade deadlock. ▪ The New York Times: U.S. vs. China tariffs: Trump's latest trade war, explained. ▪ The Guardian: Americans are putting life on hold amid economic anxiety under Trump, poll shows. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced that the Federal Aviation Administration assembled a team of experts to "fast-track" fixes needed after equipment outages and ground stops at Newark and Atlanta airports. Duffy placed the blame of recent aviation troubles on the previous administration.  At New Jersey's Newark Liberty International Airport, a new software update prevented a third radar outage in the last two weeks when a telecommunications line failed again over the weekend. Duffy on Monday announced an emergency task force for Newark, and said the FAA is considering flight reductions. ▪ Politico: Trump on Monday defended his decision to take in dozens of white South Africans who were granted refugee status while his administration limits refugee admissions for the rest of the world. The president told reporters the Afrikaners, largely descendent from Dutch colonizers who pioneered a brutal apartheid regime in the country, face "genocide" and racial discrimination in South Africa, which the government denies.   ▪ Religion News Service: The Episcopal Church announced Monday that it is terminating its nearly four-decade partnership with the government to resettle refugees, citing moral opposition to resettling white Afrikaners.  ▪ The Hill: To serve as acting Librarian of Congress after the departure of fired predecessor Carla Hayden, Trump named his former personal lawyer, Todd Blanche, in that role. In November after winning the election, the president said he'd nominate Blanche, a former federal prosecutor and white-collar criminal defense attorney, to be deputy attorney general. WHEN & WHERE The House will meet at noon. The Senate will convene at 10 a.m. The president is in Saudi Arabia and arrived at the Ritz-Carlton Riyadh at 10:40 a.m. local time. Trump headed to the Royal Court at 11:50 a.m. to participate in a state visit at noon local time. He planned to depart the court about three hours later and head back to his hotel before traveling to King Abdulaziz International Conference Center to participate in an afternoon investment forum. The president will return to his hotel, then attend a Saudi state dinner at Diriyah At-Turaif that will conclude around 10:30 p.m. local time. Trump will return to his hotel. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is with the president in Saudi Arabia. He will meet with employees and families associated with the U.S. Mission in Riyadh at 8 a.m. local time before joining Trump.   ZOOM IN ©️ Associated Press | Curtis Means and Jose Luis Magana LONE STAR STATE: Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) is trailing state Attorney General Ken Paxton by 16 points — 56 percent support to 40 percent — in an internal GOP primary poll conducted by a super PAC supporting the incumbent, pointing to a potentially challenging reelection bid. If Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who is considering his own run, joins the field, Punchbowl News reports, then Paxton leads with 44 percent support to Cornyn's 34 percent and Hunt's 19 percent. The developing primary race between Cornyn and Paxton is representative of a wider split within the Texas GOP between establishment figures like Cornyn and hard-liners who argue they are the true conservatives and loyalists to Trump's agenda.  "Senator Cornyn has a 99 percent voting record with Trump as President and continues to be his close legislative ally," Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak said in response to the poll's results. "In ten months, when Texas GOP primary voters completely understand the record of both candidates, we are confident we will win."  Axios: Trump's tough choices: Endorse key senators or please MAGA. EYES ON 2028: The shadow Democratic presidential primary is kicking off, with potential contenders ramping up their appearances in key battleground states. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is slated to take part in a VoteVets town hall in the early-contest state of Iowa next week, while Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) is set to headline the South Carolina Democratic Party's Blue Palmetto Dinner later this month. Meanwhile, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) attended a town hall in the critical swing county of Bucks County, Pa., on Saturday. The visits come as Democrats struggle to form a cohesive message in the second Trump era following a slew of losses in 2024. But the party's strategists argue that the emerging shadow primary is not as much about ideology, but who can land the best punch against Republicans. ▪ Arizona Republic: Gallego for president? His new border security and immigration plan fuels speculation. ▪ The Washington Post: Gallego's tough talk in Pennsylvania visit adds to 2028 chatter. ▪ The Hill: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) will address Democratic Party conventions in South Carolina and California as jockeying for 2028 begins. CALIFORNIA: Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Monday urged Golden State cities to clear homeless encampments, escalating his efforts to address the makeshift tents that line underpasses, parks and local streets up and down the state. Newsom cannot force cities to pass his ban, but its issuance coincides with the release of more than $3 billion in state-controlled housing funds that local officials can use to put his template in place. "The time for inaction is over. There are no more excuses," Newsom said in a statement. Axios: Aides to former President Biden privately discussed the possibility he'd need to use a wheelchair if he won re-election, CNN's Jake Tapper and Axios' Alex Thompson write in their forthcoming book, "Original Sin." CONTENT FROM OUR SPONSOR Protect Community Banks from Credit Card Mandates  The Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Mandates will raise costs, limit credit access, and hurt local financial institutions. Carve-outs don't work. Small banks lose while corporate megastores cash in. Learn more.  ELSEWHERE ©️ Associated Press | Stefan Jeremiah  GAZA: Edan Alexander, 21, an American Israeli soldier held hostage for more than 19 months in Gaza, was released by Hamas on Monday. Alexander, who is believed to be the last living U.S. citizen held captive in Gaza, was handed over to Red Cross representatives in the enclave's southern city of Khan Younis. On his return to Israeli territory, "he will undergo an initial medical assessment and meet with his family," the Israeli military said. Shortly after Alexander was freed, Hamas said the move was part of "the steps being taken to achieve a ceasefire, open the crossings, and allow aid" into Gaza. Trump congratulated Alexander's "wonderful parents, family, and friends" on the release in a post on Truth Social. The Associated Press: Food security experts warn Gaza is at critical risk of famine if Israel doesn't end its blockade. UKRAINE: Trump on Monday raised the possibility of flying to Turkey later this week to join talks between Russia and Ukraine if there was a chance of progress in efforts to stop the war. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated they could meet for direct talks in Turkey on Thursday.  "You have the potential for a good meeting. I insisted that that meeting take place, and it is taking place. And I think you may have a good result out of the meeting Thursday with Russia and Ukraine. And I believe the two leaders are going to be there," Trump said. Trump added that he would consider flying into Turkey for the discussions if he thought it would be helpful. "I don't know where I'm going to be on Thursday. I've got so many meetings," Trump said. "But I was thinking about actually flying over there. There's a possibility of it I guess if I think things can happen." The offer triggered a flurry of diplomacy, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the "way forward for a ceasefire" in Ukraine with European counterparts. The New York Times: European leaders threatened new sanctions unless Moscow accepted a ceasefire right away. CALM AT THE BORDER: Authorities in India and Pakistan said Monday there was no firing reported overnight along the heavily militarized border, the first time in recent days the two nations were not shooting at each other following a U.S.-brokered truce. OPINION The GOP surrenders on Medicaid, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board. This is not the Saudi Arabia Trump visited before, by Michael Ratney, guest essayist, The New York Times. THE CLOSER ©️ Associated Press | U.S. Army Signal Corps  And finally … On this day in 1846, Congress approved a U.S. declaration of war against Mexico, but the United States entered the conflict divided. The fighting lasted two years, and on Feb. 2, 1848, the U.S. signed the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, subsequently ratified by both national congresses.  Mexico ceded to the United States nearly all the territory now included in the states of New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, California, Texas and western Colorado for $15 million and U.S. assumption of its citizens' claims against Mexico. The conflict reopened bitter U.S. disputes about slavery in the expanded territory.  A young Ulysses S. Grant, who fought in Mexico and received two promotions for gallantry, enhanced his reputation during the Civil War and became president in 1869. In his memoirs, he later described his misgivings about the war with Mexico. "For myself," he wrote, "I was bitterly opposed to the measure, and to this day regard the war which resulted as one of the most unjust ever waged by a stronger [nation] against a weaker nation."  Stay Engaged We want to hear from you! 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