Disputes on the right that had been simmering on the backburner as Republicans rallied around President Trump during his first six months in office are poised to roar to a boil in the second half of the year.
Now that Republicans have pushed through the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" of Trump's tax cut and spending priorities, there is more space to hash out other intra-party debates. Trump's approval ratings seem to be reaching a summer slump, creating an opening for criticism. And the fissure over Jeffrey Epstein disclosures has exposed a slip in Trump's grip on the GOP.
Here's what I'm watching:
1. Tariff hikes versus free trade instincts
Republicans are bracing for Trump's threatened tariff hikes on most countries — which he had paused for several months — ahead of another critical deadline on August 1.
Many Republicans have sat back and given Trump, who they regularly laud as a master negotiator, room to strike deals with trading partners. But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on CBS News's "Face the Nation" over the weekend that the Aug. 1 deadline is firm.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) recently told The Hill that the global and American economies are in a "fragile spot right now" given the uncertainty over tariffs.
"We're in uncharted territory. I do not know the impact the tariffs are going to have on the American economy or the global economy. I don't, and nobody else does either," Kennedy said.
Republicans have already started to voice some concerns about the looming tariffs amid a lack of international deals.
For instance, two dozen Republicans led by Rep. Ron Estes (R-Kansas) sent a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last month asking the U.S. to maintain its zero tariff policy on civil aircraft, as Politico reported.
If the tariffs get more real with little in terms of deals, quiet concerns are likely to grow much louder.
2. Posture toward Russia and Ukraine
The president's patience with Vladimir Putin is wearing visibly thin as the Russian president resists any deal that would bring an end to his country's invasion of Ukraine — resulting in Trump growing more open to taking a tougher stance toward Russia.
Trump warned on July 14 that if Russia did not agree to a deal within 50 days, he would pursue "very severe tariffs" on Russia — and Republicans in support of a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill have said that a vote on the matter will come as soon as Trump gives the green light.
But there is a notable contingent of Republicans who are still skeptical of being involved at all in the Russia-Ukraine clash. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) criticized Trump's plan to speed up weapons deliveries to NATO countries that would then send those arms to Ukraine in a New York Times interview last week.
"I said it on every rally stage: 'No more money to Ukraine. We want peace,'" Greene said.
And seventy-six House Republicans voted in favor of an amendment from Greene last week to bar funds in their annual defense appropriations bill from being used for assistance to Ukraine. Even though the amendment failed and less than a majority of the House GOP supported it, it's still a sizable chunk that could complicate any Trump efforts to support Kyiv.
3. Government funding clashes
It took some major pushes from Trump to get congressional Republicans all on board with his "One Big Beautiful Bill" due in part to concerns from deficit hawks — and those disputes and dynamics are only going to get more complicated as Congress starts to address regular government funding ahead of the Sept. 30 funding deadline.
Shutdown fears are already growing, my colleague Alex Bolton reports, since Republicans will need cooperation from Democrats in the Senate to keep the government — which is still operating at levels first approved under former President Biden — open.
It typically takes a more moderate deal on appropriations to clear the Senate's 60-vote threshold. And this time, Democrats furious about the "One Big Beautiful Bill" and package that clawed back funds already allocated to public broadcasting and foreign aid are eyeing taking a more aggressive stance.
Further complicating that is government funding furor from deficit hawks on the GOP side who were disappointed by the "One Big Beautiful Bill" not doing more to cut spending.
But with little work done on regular government funding bills ahead of the August recess, a stopgap measure is looking more and more likely — a proposal that will infuriate deficit hawks.
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