Spiegel Stuff: The Hill’s Campaign Report: COVID-19 puts conventions in flux

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races.

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We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching:

CAN YOU HOLD A CONVENTION IF THE CANDIDATES DON'T COME?

Joe Biden isn't going to the Democratic Convention in Milwaukee and President Trump may give his acceptance speech from the White House, underscoring how convention season is being rocked by the coronavirus pandemic.

The Democratic National Committee announced Biden would not be taking the trip to Milwaukee, and would deliver his acceptance speech from Delaware instead.

Meanwhile, Trump revealed in an interview with “Fox & Friends” this morning that he was considering delivering his acceptance speech address from the White House.

Why it matters:

In not going to Milwaukee, Biden is again seeking to show how he's committed to safety and public health guidelines. Biden is asking voters to unseat Trump in large part because of how he's handled the coronavirus crisis.
If Trump delivers the speech from the White House, it will be another breach of traditional protocol characteristic of his presidency, further blurring the lines between official U.S. business and politics.

Other traditions are also likely to be impacted.

The Trump campaign on Wednesday requested that the Commission on Presidential Debates add an additional debate to be held the first week of September. The letter asks that the last debate on October 22 be moved up to the first week in September if the commission does not add a fourth debate.

The Trump campaign’s argument is that the coronavirus has resulted in less exposure for the candidates and that several key states, like Florida and North Carolina, begin voting next monthly. Voters should be able to hear from the candidates before they cast their ballots, the Trump campaign argued.

Axios first reported that Trump ally and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani made the request on Wednesday, with suggestions for moderators including Fox’s Bret Baier and conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.

The bottom line is that the Trump campaign knows it is trailing Biden and feels pressure to draw him out, believing more exposure will be bad for the Democratic nominee. They’re also working the refs in an effort to get favorable moderators. --Julia Manchester

BIDEN’S RED STATE OFFENSIVE

The Biden campaign is going big on ad spending and committing to playing in traditional red states as it seeks to expand the map with 90 days to go before the election.

Biden’s campaign has laid down $280 million in paid television advertising and digital media reservations across 15 battlegrounds. That’s the largest allocation in campaigns history.

Where Biden is spending

The core battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida.
States Hillary Clinton won in 2016, including Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.
Red states that Trump won easily in 2016 such as Texas and Georgia, and traditional swing states where Trump is seen as having an advantage in Iowa and Ohio.

Why it matters:

The Biden campaign believes Trump’s polling weakness gives them an expanded path to 270 electoral votes. In addition to the wider battlegrounds map, they intend to invest in a national ad campaign to take advantage.

Just today, Monmouth University released a new survey of Iowa.

Trump and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) have narrow leads of 3 points each in the Hawkeye State. Trump won by 9 points there in 2016.

Many of the states Trump is defending are also Senate battlegrounds that could determine a majority in the upper chamber.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a top GOP super PAC, announced Wednesday a $21.3 million ad blitz to protect vulnerable Republicans, including Ernst:

Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona ($1.9 million)
Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler in Georgia ($6.6 million)
Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa ($4.1 million)
Sen. Steve Daines in Montana ($6.1 million)
Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina ($2.6 million)

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST: Progressive activist Cori Bush defeated Rep. Wm. Lacy Clay (D-Mo.) in a closely watched primary on Tuesday, making him the latest Democratic incumbent to fall to a more liberal challenger this year. Clay, who has represented Missouri’s 1st District for nearly 20 years, joins the likes of Reps. Eliiot Engel (D-N.Y.) and Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.), both of whom lost primaries of their own in recent months to progressive-backed candidates.

Bush tried and failed to oust Clay in a 2018 primary. But a national outcry over racial injustice combined with the joint health and economic crises surrounding the coronavirus pandemic has served to bolster anti-establishment sentiment among many voters while elevating the voices of progressives who have called for sweeping social and economic reforms. That ultimately helped propel Bush across the finish line on Tuesday.

Missouri’s 1st District encompasses St. Louis and its immediate suburbs, and is considered a safe Democratic seat, all but assuring that Bush will represent its voters in Washington come 2021.

The Hill’s Abigail Mihaly and Tal Axelrod have more on Bush’s win here.

Some other highlights from Tuesday: Missouri was only one of five states that held downballot primaries. And while Clay’s ouster was perhaps the biggest news of the night, here are some highlights from the nominating contests in Michigan, Kansas, Arizona and Washington State.

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), a first-term progressive lawmaker from Detroit, fended off a primary challenge from former Rep. Brenda Jones (D-Mich.). Her win is good news for progressives, providing a test of resilience for one of their highest-profile House members.

In Kansas, Rep. Roger Marshall (R) defeated arch-conservative Kris Kobach in the GOP primary to replace retiring Sen. Pat Roberts (R). Marshall’s win is a a relief for establishment-aligned Republicans, who feared that a Kobach win could cost them the Senate seat in November.

Also in Kansas, state Treasurer Jake LaTurner beat Rep. Steve Watkins (R) in the GOP primary to represent the state’s 2nd District, dealing a blow to an incumbent who is already staring down felony charges related to voter fraud.

Former astronaut Mark Kelly coasted to the Democratic Senate nomination in Arizona, setting him up for a general election bid against Sen. Martha McSally (R), who won a primary of her own on Tuesday. McSally is one of – if not – the most vulnerable GOP Senate incumbents up for reelection this year.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS:

Come back tomorrow for coverage of more primary elections. Voters head to the polls in Tennessee, where a vicious GOP primary to replace retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) will come to a close. Trump-backed candidate Bill Hagerty is trying to hang on against outsider Manny Sethi, who has support from Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

We’re 12 days away from the beginning of the Democratic National Convention, 19 days from the beginning of the Repulican National Convention, 55 days from the first presidential debate and 90 days out from Election Day.