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A week from now and people WILL BE VOTING. And it won’t be early voting anymore!: |
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© Getty Images Election Day is one week from today. Eeeek! Where the polling stands: Via The Hill’s Jonathan Easley, “Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s polling lead over President Trump is holding steady in a significant shift from 2016, when Democrat Hillary Clinton saw her lead fall in the week before Election Day.” https://bit.ly/37LN4bu Why the polling *might be* a little more accurate this time: “All of the factors that pollsters measure to analyze volatility among likely voters — the number of undecideds, those considering third-party candidates and leaners who could still change their minds — are down at this point in 2020 compared to in 2016, keeping the race at a steady level that favors Biden in the home stretch.” Compared to 2016: “At this point in 2016, the polls had begun to tighten significantly, even if many analysts ignored it.” |
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| NUMBERS TO KNOW: |
| According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by 7.4 points. https://bit.ly/3msTIaI More than 60 million Americans have already voted. That already tops the total number of early votes in 2016. https://cnn.it/31N03WR |
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| It’s Tuesday. Can you believe October is almost over? I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com — and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook. Did someone forward this to you? Want your own copy? Sign up here to receive The Hill's 12:30 Report in your inbox daily: http://bit.ly/2kjMNnn |
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A vote counted is a voice heard |
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Check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and get access to the latest, official information from election authorities in our Voting Information Center on Facebook and Instagram. Explore the Voting Information Center now. |
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| INTERESTING READ — ‘HOW EARLY VOTING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE POLLS’: |
| “A side effect of high turnout is that it has the potential for making the polls more accurate as well. A lot of problems in polling can come from trying to figure out which voters are more likely to actually turn out and vote … It's easier to know if someone is a registered voter than if they're a likely voter. If turnout is higher, the likely voter universe has a better chance of matching the registered voter universe.” Via CNN’s Harry Enten: https://cnn.it/3msJYgC |
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| I SUGGEST READING THIS AND PASSING THIS AROUND — IF YOU’RE AT ALL SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE VOTING PROCESS, THIS IS A HELPFUL Q&A: |
| Via Politico’s Zach Montellaro and Tim Alberta: https://politi.co/34uBhMJ Including answers to: “Isn’t it true that ballots have been mass-mailed out to everyone?” and “why are so many people suddenly being allowed to vote by mail?” |
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| IF TRUMP CAN WIN FLORIDA AND PENNSVYLANIA, HE HAS A STRONG CHANCE OF WINNING ANOTHER TERM: |
| “Such an outcome is not implausible even though Trump is behind in polls in both states. Trump has higher hopes in Florida where Biden leads by under 2 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. In Pennsylvania, Biden’s lead is around 5 points.” The full reasoning from The Hill’s Niall Stanage: https://bit.ly/37KafTC |
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Another justice in town: |
| Amy Coney Barrett was sworn in as a Supreme Court justice last night, after a 52-48 Senate confirmation vote. https://bit.ly/3juCecl The only Republican not to vote for Barrett: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) The historic element: Via The New York Times’s Nicholas Fandos, “It was the first time in 151 years that a justice was confirmed without the support of a single member of the minority party, a sign of how bitter Washington’s war over judicial nominations has become.” https://nyti.ms/3jzsxcC About an hour after her confirmation vote: Justice Clarence Thomas swore her in at the White House. Why Justice Thomas administered the oath: Via The New York Times’s Maggie Haberman, “Judge Barrett chose Justice Thomas to swear her in partly because she admires his life story, but also because she clerked for the court while he was on the bench, an administration official said.” https://nyti.ms/37LmtLS |
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| IF YOU’RE WONDERING IF GUESTS WERE SOCIALLY DISTANT: |
| Here’s a photo of the White House ceremony last night: Via CNN’s Kaitlan Collins: https://bit.ly/35BjW44 CNN’s Manu Raju pointed out: The swearing-in happened “a month to the day of the [White House] event that [Anthony Fauci] called superspreader.” https://bit.ly/35TgmTh And here’s a close-up of the guests: I don’t see a single maskless guest. Photo: https://bit.ly/3mpVkSH |
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| HOW DEMOCRATS REACTED TO THE CONFIRMATION — ‘YOU’LL REGRET THIS’: |
| Democrats are under pressure from the left get rid of the filibuster and to expand the Supreme Court. https://bit.ly/37LOd2M |
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Barrett will be quickly thrown in: |
| Via Bloomberg’s Greg Stohr, “Justice Amy Coney Barrett will immediately be embroiled in some of the nation’s biggest legal battles, including cases that could determine whether the president who nominated her gets four more years in the White House.” Oh and: She “will take part when the court hears a challenge to the Affordable Care Act a week after the election.” https://bloom.bg/2G2pcF6 From Barrett’s second swearing-in ceremony: 
© Twitter Why there are two ceremonies: “Supreme Court justices are required to take two oaths before they may execute the duties of their appointed office: the constitutional oath and the judicial oath.” More from ABC News: https://abcn.ws/31L3Un4 |
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| LATEST WITH THE CORONAVIRUS | |
| Coronavirus cases in the U.S.: 8,708,533 U.S. death toll: 225,792 Breakdown of the numbers: https://cnn.it/2UAgW3y |
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Explore Facebook’s Voting Information Center |
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More than 39 million people have visited our Voting Information Center, which makes it easy to check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and prepare to vote safely. Explore the Voting Information Center now. |
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Early voting has begun in Washington, D.C.: |
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© Twitter Watch: https://bit.ly/3ktMNxs What to know about early voting in D.C.: Via NBC Washington: https://bit.ly/3ovBaZl Op-ed: https://bit.ly/3mmNqJC |
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Lol, I really appreciate ‘The Onion’ sometimes: |
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© Twitter |
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| The House and Senate are out. President Trump is campaigning in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Nevada. Vice President Pence is in North Carolina and South Carolina today. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is in Georgia and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) is in Nevada. 12:25 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence leaves for North Carolina. 12:30 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Michigan. 3 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence leaves for South Carolina. 4 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Wisconsin. 5:35 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence heads back to North Carolina. 5:45 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in West Salem, Wis. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2JcNHRh 6:50 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a campaign rally in Wilmington, N.C. 7:45 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Nebraska. 9:20 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence returns to Washington, D.C. 10:25 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves for Las Vegas where he will stay for the night. Thursday, Oct. 29: The Hill is hosting a virtual event, “America's Agenda: Infrastructure.” Featured speakers: Reps. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), Sam Graves (R-Mo.) and Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.). Details and how to RSVP: https://bit.ly/35PtcBZ |
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| Noon: Former President Barack Obama campaigns for Joe Biden in Orlando, Fla. Livestream: https://cs.pn/3mrsTDP 1 p.m. EDT: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden campaigns in Warm Springs, Ga. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2HDRjvc 1 p.m. EDT: The Hill is hosting a virtual event, “COVID-19 & A Responsive Rx Supply Chain.” Featured speakers: Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) Livestream: https://bit.ly/3mkVzyr 1:40 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a campaign rally in Greensboro N.C. Livestream: https://cs.pn/3oxf7l2 2:30 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Lansing, Mich. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2Jf247P 3 p.m. EDT: First lady Melania Trump campaigns in Atglen, Pa. Livestream: https://cs.pn/31LvAZd 3 p.m. EDT: Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) campaigns in Reno, Nev. Livestream: https://cs.pn/31P7qga 4:15 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence holds a campaign rally in Greenville, S.C. Livestream: https://cs.pn/3mllnua 5 p.m. EDT: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden campaigns in Atlanta. Livestream: https://cs.pn/31MUCHi 5 p.m. EDT: Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) campaigns in Las Vegas. Livestream: https://cs.pn/31Lwh4L 9 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Omaha, Neb. Livestream: https://cs.pn/37R6jAJ Thank you for livestreaming these events, C-SPAN! |
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| NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...: | |
| Today is National American Beer Day. |
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I applaud this hard work: |
| A 24-year-old software engineer launched website to track every broken McDonalds ice cream machine in the U.S. The full story from The Verge: https://bit.ly/3kyAT5x Check out the map: 12 percent of the ice cream machines are currently broken. https://bit.ly/3kyC5FP |
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| And to brighten you Tuesday afternoon, here’s a dog taking a lil’ nap on a cow: https://bit.ly/35HVj5K 
© Twitter |
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