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| WHERE THE ELECTION STANDS | |
Oh, if you could bottle the nervous energy in the country today: |
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© Getty Images Good afternoon! The polls are now open in all 50 states. Let’s do this thing, America. |
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| QUICK PRIMER: |
| Three Twitter accounts I suggest you follow today for smart, responsible analysis: The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman: https://bit.ly/3mMu15d The New York Times’s Nate Cohn: https://bit.ly/2JBCDgV FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver: https://bit.ly/385XT8q How to watch the results: https://nyti.ms/2HSml2J When we should know some election results: The New York Times has a very helpful guide of when to expect results and which traps not to fall into at each point in the night: https://nyti.ms/3p3tTQS The 8 p.m. ET hour, when polls close in 21 states and Washington, D.C., will be important. However, results will trickle in instead of dropping at once. Watch out for exit polls (!) — they can be VERY misleading: Especially during the pandemic when many voters cast ballots by mail. Full explanation from FiveThirtyEight, who says they “won’t be covering exit polls much at all’: https://53eig.ht/3p1483J Keep in mind if we don’t know have a winner tonight — it’s totally normal: “We did not know Presidential winner for certain before midnight on election nights in 1960, 1968, 1976, 2000, 2004, 2016. No one should pretend there would be anything historically unusual if that happens again in 2020.” (From presidential historian Michael Beschloss) https://bit.ly/3jQx8al How the sausage is made — The Associated Press explains their processes and reasoning in calling races: https://bit.ly/3jPBX3T The weather today — this is good for voter turnout: “Tranquil conditions in key swing states and most of Lower 48: With rain only predicted in the Pacific Northwest, weather is not expected to suppress voter turnout.” Forecast from The Capital Weather Gang: https://wapo.st/329omyq While you’re killing time today — create your possible scenarios: The New York Times has an interactive diagram of states’ Electoral College votes. Test out what you think will happen: https://nyti.ms/34QxAB6 Lol, I’d say this is an accurate representation of America today: 
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| AHHHH, ELECTION DAY IS FINALLY HERE! I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com — and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook. Did someone forward this to you? Want your own copy? Sign up here to receive The Hill's 12:30 Report in your inbox daily: http://bit.ly/2kjMNnn |
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A vote counted is a voice heard |
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Check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and get access to the latest, official information from election authorities in our Voting Information Center on Facebook and Instagram. Explore the Voting Information Center now. |
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| THIS MORNING FROM THE WHITE HOUSE | |
I feel good, dunununun: |
| President Trump called into “Fox & Friends” this morning, predicting a strong night for his reelection. https://bit.ly/2HS9SvX The states Trump thinks he will do well: Texas, Florida and Arizona. He also predicted doing well in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. How Trump is feeling: “We’re feeling very good. We have crowds like nobody has ever had before,” Trump said on the show. “I think that translates into a lot of votes, and we’re going to see very soon.” Trump’s prediction for how many Electoral College votes he will win: 306 Watch Trump’s appearance this morning: https://bit.ly/2I3ME5Z WHY TRUMP RUFFLED SOME SERIOUS FEATHERS LAST NIGHT: “President Trump on Monday claimed a Supreme Court ruling that allows Pennsylvania to accept mail ballots sent by Election Day and received up to three days later will ‘induce violence.’” Twitter even labeled Trump’s tweet with a warning that it "might be misleading about an election or other civic process." The full story: https://bit.ly/3mNBlgT Trump tweeted: “The Supreme Court decision on voting in Pennsylvania is a VERY dangerous one. It will allow rampant and unchecked cheating and will undermine our entire systems of laws. It will also induce violence in the streets. Something must be done!” See Trump’s tweet with Twitter’s warning: https://bit.ly/3oS9LRx |
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| WHEN YOU WATCH THE RESULTS TONIGHT: | |
Seriously, read this before tonight to help your blood pressure — well and sanity: |
| The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman explains how initial results can be totally misleading, especially because of the massive number of mail-in ballots. https://nbcnews.to/35Y0pLj First thing to know: Mail-in ballots are expected to be more Democratic than Republican. The ‘blue mirage’: “It's likely that in Sun Belt battlegrounds such as Florida, North Carolina and Texas, the first totals to be reported will be huge tranches of mail and early in-person ballots that break heavily for Joe Biden, creating a ‘blue mirag’ in the early tallies that could be erased once Trump-friendly in-person Election Day votes are tabulated.” The ‘red mirage’: “The opposite could be true in northern battlegrounds such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where officials are not permitted to begin processing mail ballots until the day of the election (or, in Michigan's case, the day before). In those states, a ‘red mirage’ of Trump-heavy Election Day votes could linger until larger metro counties report huge tranches of early ballots later in the evening.” The full piece is worth reading: https://nbcnews.to/35Y0pLj |
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| FIVE STATES TO WATCH TONIGHT: |
| Pennsylvania, Florida, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina. Why these five, via The Hill’s Jonathan Easley: https://bit.ly/2JyPT5O |
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| WHAT TIME THE POLLS CLOSE IN EVERY STATE — THIS WILL BE A HELPFUL GUIDE TO REFERENCE TONIGHT: |
| https://bit.ly/3ekDEFq |
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New reporting — What to expect from Joe Biden if he is declared the winner tonight: |
| Via Axios’s Mike Allen and Margaret Talev, “If news organizations declare Joe Biden the mathematical president-elect, he plans to address the nation as its new leader, even if President Trump continues to fight in court, advisers tell Axios.” https://bit.ly/2HTPMAV Why: “Biden advisers learned the lesson of 2000, when Al Gore hung back while George W. Bush declared victory in that contested election, putting the Democrat on the defensive while Bush acted like the winner.” |
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| What it looks like outside the White House: Wow, the signs and the helicopters make for a powerful image. Photo: https://bit.ly/3kTPOau This video has more than 1.3 million views already: 
© Twitter Including concrete barriers and a “non-scalable fence”: Via Business Insider’s Eliza Relman. Photos: https://bit.ly/3oPuzJo Joe Biden visits his childhood home this morning: Here’s a photo from Scranton, Pa.: https://bit.ly/2TMt14y During Trump’s Wisconsin rally last night: “Trump has microphone issues in Kenosha. A member of the White House Communications Agency [went] up to adjust the lectern microphone.” https://bit.ly/2TNkazz Singer John Legend, Chrissy Teigen and their family were in Philadelphia: I’m loving Luna’s sparkly jacket! Here’s a family photo: https://bit.ly/3kR1vPe ^Chrissy Teigen posted a video from riding in the motorcade: https://bit.ly/3jXADfc Turns out, conga lines aren’t the most socially distant *nervous laugh*: 
© Twitter Ha. Haha.: CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski tweeted: “Hard to believe it is only 1462 days until polls close in the 2024 Iowa Caucuses.” https://bit.ly/362m9G9 I don’t know how to tell you this, but the election needle is back: 
© Twitter Wellness check on John King: Quibi’s Shawna Thomas pointed out, “I'm starting to think that @CNN has literally chained [John King] to the U.S. map touchscreen thingy. I hope they're giving him water.” https://bit.ly/3kNokDv Joe Biden’s new boss: “‘I work for Lady Gaga,’ Biden tells students in Pittsburgh” Photo: https://bit.ly/2Gpblcj |
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| LOGISTICS: |
| If you’re not registered: Here’s a list of which states where you can register on Election Day: https://bit.ly/34RlOqf Demonstrations in D.C.?: Via Washingtonian, Here’s a list of the rallies that are scheduled in Washington, D.C., this week: https://bit.ly/3jW2w7o |
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Explore Facebook’s Voting Information Center |
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More than 39 million people have visited our Voting Information Center, which makes it easy to check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and prepare to vote safely. Explore the Voting Information Center now. |
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| LATEST WITH THE CORONAVIRUS | |
| Coronavirus cases in the U.S.: 9,297,353 U.S. death toll: 231,599 Breakdown of the numbers: https://cnn.it/2UAgW3y |
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Oh my gosh — hahaha: |
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© Twitter Lis Smith responded: “I was just excited that you enjoyed the pleasure of a hard seltzer!” https://bit.ly/2HSlyOJ |
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Lol, this pool note sent to reporters: |
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© Twitter |
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| The House and Senate are out. President Trump is in Washington, D.C. today. He stopped by the “RNC Annex” in Arlington, Va., at 11:15 a.m. EST. Vice President Pence is participating in various radio interviews throughout the day. Trump is hosting an election night party at the White House for 250 people. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is making stops in Scranton, Pa., and Philadelphia today. Joe Biden’s wife, Jill Biden, is making stops in St. Petersburg, Fla., Tampa, Fla., and Cary, N.C., today. This evening, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Harris’s husband Doug Emhoff will spend election night in Wilmington, Del. |
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| 6 p.m. EST: The first polls close — in parts of Kentucky and Indiana. 12 a.m. EST Tuesday: The final polls close — Alaska and Hawaii. Follow this New York Times guide tonight: https://nyti.ms/35Yeybv |
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| NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...: | |
| Today is National Sandwich Day. And because I assume many of you will be up past midnight, tomorrow is National Candy Day! |
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Wow…: |
| Photographer Tim Durkan captured a wild shot of the full moon in Seattle on Halloween night. The photo: https://bit.ly/3kRroyB |
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A perfect – and highly entertaining — distraction from the real world: |
| @MrsSteveMOBrien tweeted, “What's your weakest claim to fame? I once dated the cousin of someone who played a cat nun on Doctor Who.” The responses — they do not disappoint: https://bit.ly/34RxZmT |
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Cel-e-brate your civic duty, come on!: |
| Here’s a list of where to get free food today if you vote: https://bit.ly/3jV7JMT |
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| And because I know we’re all stressed and could use a distraction, here are relaxed doggos living their best lives: https://bit.ly/325I1z7 |
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| ^ OK, how about a second distraction?? Here’s a piglet who found its perfect disguise: https://bit.ly/2TM7LMt |
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