With the end of 2022 rapidly approaching, all eyes are starting to turn to 2024. Yes, there's a presidential election, but there's also a dynamic Senate map coming into view.
As our Al Weaver notes, 10 GOP-held seats and 23 Democratic-held seats are up for reelection in two years, and questions remain over what kind of strategy the GOP will employ heading into the next election and whether Democrats will be able to retain their slim majority.
The Trump factor: Among the questions Al poses include how Republicans will tackle what Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) bemoaned as "candidate quality" concerns. A number of former President Trump's endorsees or Trump-aligned candidates struggled during the November midterms as many of them were plagued by negative headlines, scandals or grueling primaries. And while many of those Senate races in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and elsewhere proved to still be close, the candidates were ultimately unable to move past personal baggage.
Some Republicans blame that hands-off approach during the primaries for costing them valuable Senate seats, but the question remains heading into 2024 about how the GOP will get involved in their own primaries, if at all, and what kind of influence Trump will still have among voters.
Dems face steep odds: At the same time, Democrats are staring down a math problem: More than two-thirds of the Senate reelection map are Senate Democrats, meaning that the party will be more on the defensive than before.
And while some Senate Democrats are still mulling over whether to run again, the GOP will have some prime pickup opportunities in Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania and West Virginia – that's if they solve their candidate quality concerns. One of the big question marks here, for Democrats, however, is Sen. Krysten Sinema (Ariz.), who most recently announced she was changing party affiliation from Democrat to Independent.
The Sinema question: As Al notes, it's unclear if Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) will back another Sinema reelection bid if she officially announces one, or if he would be open to backing a Democrat to challenge Sinema in the general election. While Sinema is likely to face a difficult path ahead should she encounter both Republican and Democratic challengers in the Arizona Senate race, strategists are suggesting not to count her out anyway.
"It's tough. It's why you run as a Republican or run as a Democrat," Barrett Marson, a Phoenix-based GOP strategist, told Al. "But Sen. Sinema certainly has shown an ability to defy odds and win elections, close as they may be, in the state and has tapped into a lot of angst."
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