The Hill's Morning Report — Colorado’s Trump ruling throws 2024 off balance

Presented by BP — Big questions remain about the ruling's impact — and whether it will take effect at all

View Online  MORNING REPORT PRESENTED BY Thursday, December 21  by Kristina Karisch Thursday, December 21  by Kristina Karisch © The Associated Press / Godofredo A. Vásquez | Former President Trump at a Dec. 17 campaign rally in Reno, Nev. Colorado's Trump ruling throws 2024 off balance  The Colorado state Supreme Court's Tuesday landmark decision to disqualify former President Trump from the state's presidential primary ballot sent shockwaves through the political sphere, but big questions remain about the ruling's impact — and whether it will take effect at all.    Even after Colorado's top court found the 14th Amendment's insurrection ban makes Trump ineligible for the primary ballot, the former president could still appear as a candidate next year. Trump has until Jan. 4 to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, a move that would automatically pause his disqualification. The next phase of the case will dictate Trump's future on the general election ballot in November, regardless, and those impacts could stretch nationwide. The Hill's Ella Lee and Zach Schonfeld break down what happens next.    President Biden on Wednesday said there was no question that Trump was responsible for leading an insurrection but didn't weigh in on the legal argument unleashed in Colorado, pointedly leaving those matters to the judiciary (Politico).  It's self-evident. You saw it all. Now whether the 14th Amendment applies, I'll let the court make that decision," the president said during a trip to Wisconsin. "But he certainly supported an insurrection. No question about it. None. Zero."  While the Colorado court's ruling seemed damning, The Hill's Niall Stanage writes in The Memo that politically, its impact could end up rebounding to Trump's advantage. The former president's national polling lead in the GOP primary has expanded this year even as he has been indicted four times. The news puts Trump center stage again, depriving his party rivals of oxygen they sorely need. While Biden will use the ruling to help make the argument that Trump is a danger to American democracy —Trump will assert with even greater vigor that it is evidence that his political enemies are out to get him.     The Hill: Over half of Americans approve of Colorado ruling to bar Trump from the state's ballot, a new poll shows.  3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY More than 1,000 images of child sexual abuse have been found in a prominent database used to train artificial intelligence tools, researchers said Wednesday, highlighting the possibility the material has helped teach AI image generators to create new and realistic fake images of child exploitation.  A surge of migrants using new means to cross the southern border has U.S. Customs and Border Protection worried — and financially stretched. "A very large earthquake": How a second Trump term could decimate the civil service.   COLORADO'S DECISION THREATENS to upend the Republican primary race less than a month before voters begin casting ballots. Republicans, including the Trump campaign, largely blasted the Colorado high court's ruling while Democrats offered a more mixed response. Trump's campaign plans to quickly file an appeal with the Supreme Court, and aides are confident the court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, will rule in his favor (The Hill).     "They see this persecution that goes on and this two tiers of justice or injustice, and they don't like it," Trump said Tuesday night in Iowa. "They don't want that. This is not what America is all about. So I appreciate everything, and I appreciate all the support we get. Because that makes a big difference."     Colorado's decision is posing a political conundrum for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis just weeks away from the Iowa caucuses. The Hill's Jared Gans and Julia Mueller report the state court's decision thrusts Trump's Republican rivals back into familiar territory, having to defend the front-runner they are trying to challenge for the nomination.     WHILE SOME GOP LAWMAKERS ARE RALLYING IN TRUMP'S DEFENSE, others, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) and other Trump skeptics in the Senate GOP conference, are sitting this one out. At the very least, they're not eager to put more political pressure on the Supreme Court, which is now facing at least two major Trump-related rulings and will likely become a central player in the 2024 election (The Hill).    The Hill: Trump asks Supreme Court to delay consideration of Jan. 6 immunity arguments. Politico: Special counsel Jack Smith added a Supreme Court specialist to his legal team. Trump has the Missouri lawyer who sued Biden. The Des Moines Register: "Poisoning the blood" of the U.S.: Trump's harsh words grow support among likely Iowa caucusgoers. DEMOCRATS ARE SHOWING EARLY SIGNS OF DIVISION over the Colorado decision. While liberals and centrists broadly see Trump as a threat to democracy and believe he should be held accountable for the Jan. 6. attack on the Capitol, The Hill's Hanna Trudo reports the Tuesday ruling by four Democratic judges has the potential to set a precedent of states stifling voters' rights to decide their candidates for possible partisan reasons. Democrats who are unequivocally unified around defeating Trump in November are now also cautioning that diminishing voters' ability to decide who represents them is a slippery, even potentially dangerous route at a time when democratic norms are fraying across the country.     "I do believe the crimes that Trump committed with regard to January 6th should disqualify him," Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at the think tank Third Way, told The Hill. "I simply believe that is unlikely [to] happen in a court of law."  Leading the Day © The Associated Press / J. Scott Applewhite | Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) at the Capitol on Dec. 13. CONGRESS Signals from the GOP that it plans to put bribery allegations front and center in its impeachment effort for Biden have renewed questions over how Republicans can prove their most disputed claim, The Hill's Rebecca Beitsch reports. In making their case for the impeachment inquiry approved by the full House last week, GOP leaders stressed their commitment to investigating one of the few crimes spelled out as an impeachable offense in the Constitution.     "The impeachable offense is — I think, the key thing is in Burisma," House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told reporters in a recent briefing, referring to Hunter Biden's work for the Ukrainian energy company. While a House impeachment inquiry is not a court of law, any formal resolution to boot Biden from office would ignite a study of whether he violated federal bribery statutes that were narrowed in a 2016 Supreme Court decision. Ankush Khardori, a former federal prosecutor, said, in court, attorneys would need to show evidence of a bribe and tie it to an official act of government power.     "You need some evidence of the actual agreement, and that can't entirely be inferred from circumstantial evidence, or you're going to be [in] tricky territory. And you need an official act, which is a legal question," Khardori said. The definition of what constitutes an "official act" was narrowed as the Supreme Court weighed the case of former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R). "It's not sufficient in a bribery prosecution — again I'm talking about an actual criminal case — to just say here are a bunch of benefits that go to the defendant — things of value — and here are a bunch of things that the defendant did. You have to prove that they were done in exchange for one another."  The Hill: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is throwing a wrench into McConnell's effort to confirm two former aides to the Federal Trade Commission and the National Transportation Safety Board, escalating a feud between the first-term conservative senator and the veteran party leader.   Politico: Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) wants Justice Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from considering the case of United States v. Trump, citing the efforts of Thomas's wife Ginni Thomas to challenge the 2020 election. After Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) kept his chamber in session past its scheduled holiday recess, senators headed home Wednesday without a border deal or Ukraine funding package in the books. But The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports that while a group of Senate and White House negotiators plan to hold virtual meetings over the Christmas and New Year's break on an emergency foreign aid package, Congress isn't expected to vote on anything until next month.      The departure of both chambers marks the end of the most unproductive legislative session in the past 30 years, as Congress passed only 27 bills that Biden signed into law. Schumer blamed the lack of accomplishments on Trump's influence over the Republican-controlled House.     "Under a Republican House majority this year, we saw a year marked by chaos, extremism and paralysis. There's no question that divided government and MAGA extremism made legislating in 2023 very difficult," he said in his floor remarks concluding the year. "For much of the year it was as if Donald Trump himself were running the show over in the House, making it exceedingly hard to get anything done."   Content from our sponsor: BP Biofuel or oil & gas? For bp, it's both.    bp supports more than 275,000 jobs across America. Jobs like expanding biodiesel capacity in Washington state and bringing a new platform online in the Gulf of Mexico.   Where and When The House will meet for a pro forma session on Friday at 9 a.m.     The Senate will convene for a pro forma session on Friday at 8 a.m.    The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10 a.m.    Vice President Harris will host a holiday reception at 5:30 p.m. at the Naval Observatory with second gentleman Doug Emhoff.    Secretary of State Antony Blinken will sign a defense cooperation agreement with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Rasmussen at 11 a.m., after which he and Rasmussen will hold meetings.    The White House press briefing is scheduled for 1 p.m. and will feature National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.  Zoom In © The Associated Press / Fatima Shbair | Smoke rises following an Israeli bombardment on Rafah, Gaza, on Wednesday. MIDDLE EAST The Israeli military said it has uncovered a major Hamas command center in the heart of Gaza City, inflicting what it called a serious blow to the militant group as international pressure grows on Israel to scale back its offensive. The army said it had exposed the center of a vast underground network used by Hamas to move weapons, militants and supplies. The announcement came as Hamas's top leader arrived in Egypt for talks aimed at brokering a temporary cease-fire (The Associated Press).    AT LEAST 20,000 PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED in the Gaza Strip since Israel began bombarding the enclave more than 10 weeks ago, according to Palestinian officials. Gaza's Government Media Office said Wednesday at least 8,000 children and 6,200 women are among those killed (Al Jazeera).     THE UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL FAILED AGAIN Wednesday to produce a resolution that could pressure Israel to curtail violence in Gaza and allow in humanitarian aid. World powers agreed to delay a vote for another day as they tried to hone language of a resolution that the United States would not veto. The standoff underscored the isolation of the United States on the world stage, with foreign diplomats making clear that if a compromise couldn't be brokered soon, the resolution would be put up for a vote.    U.S. officials say a cease-fire would leave Hamas's military capabilities intact and hand the group a victory. They also have concerns about establishing a U.N. mechanism for delivering aid into Gaza. The growing death toll has spurred global calls for a cessation of hostilities and put the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, in an increasingly isolated position (The Washington Post).    "Everyone in New York assumes that this comes down to a personal decision by Biden now," said Richard Gowan, a U.N. expert at the International Crisis Group. "It is no secret that Linda Thomas-Greenfield would like a deal. But as Israel has been lobbying the White House for a veto, this ultimately comes down to Biden's own instincts."    The Hill: Voter support for U.S. military aid to Israel drops in new poll.    Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday that fears of a wider regional war in the Middle East would probably subside as Israel transitioned its military mission in Gaza to lower-intensity combat operations, as the Biden administration has repeatedly urged in recent days (The New York Times).    "If that happens, when that happens," Austin said, "it's logical that we would see some of that, you would see some reduction in activity."  Content from our sponsor: BP More lower carbon energy + keeping oil & gas flowing  From updating turbines at one of our Indiana wind farms to producing more energy with fewer operational emissions in the Gulf of Mexico, that's how bp is investing in America.   Elsewhere © The Associated Press / Marco Di Marco | An active fissure of the Grindavik volcano on Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula on Tuesday. ENVIRONMENT 🌋 A VOLCANO ERUPTED MONDAY on Iceland's Reykjanes peninsula, about 1.8 miles north of the town of Grindavík. The area had been experiencing strong seismic activity since October, a harbinger of an imminent eruption. The earthquakes — there were as many as 1,400 in a single 24-hour period in November — prompted the evacuation of the town of Grindavík and the temporary closing of the Blue Lagoon, a top tourist attraction. With these shaky warnings, Icelanders were girding for the eruption that came Monday night.     Stefan Kristjansson, who owns several fishing boats, told The New York Times he was unwinding in his outdoor hot tub in Grindavík on Monday night when he saw the horizon light up. He got dressed, left food out for his sheep and drove to Reykjavik. "I would like to be back before Christmas," he said.    Watch a livestream of the now-slowed lava HERE.    🎄 CHRISTMAS TREE GROWERS and breeders have long prepared for a future of hotter weather that will change soil conditions, too. People buying trees may not have noticed a difference in availability this year and may not even in the next couple; the average Christmas tree takes eight to 10 years to reach marketable size. But some scientists say there isn't enough research on warming soil temperatures that could affect Christmas trees and many other crops, especially trees (The Associated Press).    "You've got to start thinking about how you are going to adapt to this," said Christmas tree breeder Jim Rockis.    Opinion The Colorado ruling is a rebuke for the ages, by Jesse Wegman, editorial board member, The New York Times.  Is the Colorado decision a Rocky Mountain high? by James D. Zirin, opinion contributor, The Hill.  The Closer © The Associated Press / Alex Brandon | Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) at the Capitol in January. Take Our Morning Report Quiz    And finally … 🎆It's Thursday, which means it's time for this week's Morning Report Quiz! Inspired by the last stretch of the year, we're eager for some smart guesses drawn from news that shaped 2023.     Be sure to email your responses to kkarisch@thehill.com — please add "Quiz" to your subject line. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.     Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) capped off a whirlwind congressional career this fall when he was ousted from the Speakership. Back in January, how many ballots did it take McCarthy to secure the gavel in the first place?  15  23  6  132    In April, which state's House of Representatives expelled three members for protesting for gun control?  Mississippi  Alabama  Kentucky   Tennessee   We all spent days in June tracking the fate of OceanGate's Titan submersible, which imploded in the Atlantic Ocean while descending to ___?  Mariana's Trench  The wreck of the RMS Titanic  The wreck of the RMS Lusitania  The habitat of a rare giant squid    In September, 19-year-old Coco Gauff became the first American tennis player to win which competition as a teenager since Serena Williams captured the title at 17 in 1999?  The U.S. Open  The Australian Open  Wimbledon  The French Open    ❗ A programming note: Morning Report's quiz will be taking a holiday break next week. We'll be back in your inboxes with a fresh set of questions on Jan. 4.  Stay Engaged We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on X, formerly known as Twitter: (@asimendinger & @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends! Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe  Sign Up for Other Newsletters 1625 K Street NW, 9th Floor, Washington, DC 20006 © 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved.