It's Thursday. We are only four days from the Iowa caucuses, and the race for the GOP presidential nomination is getting even more interesting. Here's what's happening: - Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's (R) surprise exit from the presidential race has really shaken up the GOP race. Former U.N. Ambassador and fellow GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley is thrilled.
- Wednesday night consisted of a lot of switching between CNN and Fox News. Former President Trump took questions from Iowa voters in a town hall instead of participating in the debate with GOP presidential rivals Haley and Gov. Ron DeSantis (Fla.). There were some pretty interesting moments in each.
- White Claw is having a full-circle moment. The hard seltzer brand is now selling seltzer without alcohol.
I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. |
🚪 Shake-up in the 2024 race: |
The news that former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the presidential race on Wednesday evening sent shockwaves through the GOP presidential primary. It comes at a key moment, as former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley works to shore up support from disillusioned Trump voters in the early states. Particularly in New Hampshire: Haley has been steadily gaining in New Hampshire and is polling 11 percentage points behind former President Trump, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling index — far closer than Trump's margin in other states. Christie had roughly 11.5 percent support in the Granite State. If most of that support goes toward Haley — which it likely will — she has a real shot at canceling out Trump's once-insurmountable lead in the first-in-the-nation primary state. Why much of Christie's support will likely transfer to Haley: Christie and Haley were both running as more moderate candidates. And while Haley has not been as critical of Trump as Christie, she is viewed as the candidate next most willing to call him out — positioning her as a prime second pick for Christie supporters. DeSantis is running further to the right than most GOP voters in New Hampshire: he is polling at 6.8 percent compared to Haley's 30.5 percent, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ's index. What do the numbers show? The New York Times's Nate Cohn looked at the polling to estimate how many of Christie's supporters will back Haley. His analysis: "No, the Christie vote, alone, will probably not be enough. But she has been steadily gaining in the polls and, historically, there's a lot of precedent for surging candidates to keep gaining — especially over a contest's final days. With Mr. Trump at just 42 percent of the vote, there's no reason to think her path is closed off." What about in Iowa?: Christie's departure likely won't affect Trump's lead in Iowa, which has a strong Trump base. The former president has a 35.5 percent lead over Haley. Christie only had 3.7 percent support. Still, that support from Christie backers could make the difference in whether DeSantis or Haley comes in second. Just how abrupt was Christie's exit? The day before, he called New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) a "liar" over talk that he would end his campaign. Christie repeatedly rejected calls to drop out, vowing to continue at least through New Hampshire's primary. Throughout his bid, Christie said his singular goal was to stop Trump from being president again. ^ This quote adds to why I was so surprised: Just a few days ago, Christie told the AP: "Let's say I dropped out of the race right now and I supported Nikki Haley. And then three months from now, four months from now, when you're ready to go to the convention, she comes out as his vice president. What will I look like? What will all the people who supported her at my behest look like?" 💡 Why it matters: Trump still has sizable leads in the early states and nationally. But this is a momentum game, and if the non-Trump share of the Republican Party can coalesce around one candidate, it could open up some real competition. |
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➤ SEE THE LATEST POLLING AVERAGES FROM THE HILL AND DECISION DESK HQ: |
In Iowa: Trump has a 35.5 percent lead based on 44 polls. Iowa polls In New Hampshire: Trump has an 11.0 percent lead based on 36 polls. N.H. polls Biden vs. Trump: Trump has a 0.9 percent lead based on 517 polls. National polls Ctrl + S: Here's the link to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ's Election Center. |
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Check in on your Alabama and Patriots fans friends today:
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ESPN is reporting that longtime New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick is leaving after 24 seasons. What now for Belichick?: "Belichick, who had one year remaining on his contract, will be allowed to leave the team without the Patriots seeking compensation. He will want to continue coaching and is expected to draw interest from at least some of the other seven NFL teams that have head-coaching vacancies, quite possibly the Atlanta Falcons, league sources said." What now for the Pats?: "The Patriots now will embark on their first head-coaching search in a quarter century. Patriots linebackers coach Jerod Mayo, whom the team signed to a contract extension in the offseason and [Patriots owner Robert] Kraft has identified as a rising head-coaching candidate, projects to be a, if not the, leading candidate for the job, sources said." (ESPN) And in Alabama: "Nick Saban, one of college football's coaching greats who won seven national championships and turned Alabama back into a national powerhouse that included six of those titles, announced his retirement Wednesday after 17 seasons in Tuscaloosa." (ESPN) Lol: Alabama Democrats are encouraging Saban to run for Senate. Why this is funny: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) was the football coach at Alabama's rival, Auburn University. Read their post on X |
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Where's Chris? Doug? Mike? Tim? Asa? The Vivek jabs?: |
Wednesday's GOP presidential debate whittled down to just two candidates — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. The gist: Both candidates had very negative tones throughout the debate. DeSantis had a slightly better night than Haley, but it's unlikely to move the needle. |
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- So much negativity: Haley and DeSantis sniped at each other throughout the two-hour debate, repeatedly accusing each other of lying about the other's record.
- Haley was so-so: "Haley offered a mixed performance on Wednesday, at times clearly getting under DeSantis's skin while also finding herself on the defense."
- But the most important takeaway: Wednesday's debate is unlikely to move the needle. Nothing catastrophic happened.
More takeaways from The Hill's Julia Manchester, Jared Gans and Caroline Vakil Who had the best night?: The Hill's Niall Stanage argues that DeSantis had one of his best debate performances. Former President Trump also had a good night, despite skipping the debate. Haley didn't have her strongest performance, but it also wasn't disastrous. More on the winners and losers 'Trump coasts in Iowa, as GOP debate turns into a 'dumpster fire'': Politico 'The biggest jabs and most memorable lines': The Washington Post |
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The moderators having a lil' behind-the-scenes moment: CNN's Dana Bash and Jake Tapper posted a casual video from the basement of Drake University. Bash is drinking hot tea in her winter boots. Tapper is showing off a music stand that reads "DRAKE UNIVERSITY" for proof of their location. Watch What journalists' inboxes looked like during the debate: Screenshot from CBS News's Kathryn Watson 🐶 ~Spotted~ at the debate — pun intended: Drake University's mascot, Griff the bulldog. What a celeb! Photo This video is making me cold: The Hill's Julia Manchester posted a video of the snow in Des Moines, Iowa, on Wednesday. "The National Weather Service has placed Des Moines under a winter storm watch beginning on Thursday," she noted. Watch 'A Former FBI Agent Analyzed Ron DeSantis' and Nikki Haley's Body Language': "Their nonverbal communication said a lot more than their words." (Politico) |
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Alternative programming in Iowa: |
Former President Trump participated in a live Fox News town hall that included questions from Iowa voters. Here are some of the highlights: Trump hints at his VP: Trump suggested that he has chosen his running mate but wouldn't say who. For what it's worth: A Trump campaign adviser told NBC News that nothing has been finalized. (The Hill) Lol: The Hill's Dominick Mastrangelo pointed out that an Iowa voter said "love you" to Trump during the town hall. That just about sums up why Trump has been untouchable within his base. |
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I LOVE a good hot mic moment: |
Right before GOP presidential candidate Chris Christie announced his exit from the race, he was caught on a hot mic predicting that fellow candidate Nikki Haley is "gonna get smoked" in the race against former President Trump. Christie's full hot mic quote: "I mean look, she's spent like $68 million so far, just on TV — spent $68 million so far — $59 million by DeSantis, and we spent $12 [million]. I mean, who's punching above their weight and who's getting a return on their investment, you know? And she's gonna get smoked. And you and I both know it. She's not up to this." (The Hill) Listen to the audio 🎧 |
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➤ MORE CAMPAIGN TRAIL HEADLINES: |
- 'Trump eyes evangelical vote as key to Iowa': The Hill
- 'Christie is out but may not be done trying to stop Trump from winning': The Washington Post
- 'Trump risks backlash with wish for economic crash in 'next 12 months'': The Hill
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☕️ Celebrate: Today is National Hot Toddy Day! 🥤 What's dominating my social media feeds: The Stanley tumbler is so incredibly popular this year that people stood in long lines outside of Target to obtain the latest, limited-edition pink cup. It's been popular for quite some time now, but it's recently hit the tween scene. (NBC's 'Today') ⚽️ Hey, soccer fans in the DMV: Soccer star Lionel Messi is playing in Washington on March 16 when DC United plays Inter Miami. Washingtonian has a guide of how to get tickets. (Washingtonian)
🍓 We've come full circle: Seltzer brands — like La Croix — became so popular that alcoholic seltzer was introduced. Well, alcoholic seltzer — like White Claw — became so popular that White Claw is now selling a seltzer with 0 percent alcohol. Here's a review from Delish |
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The House and Senate are in. President Biden is in Washington, D.C., and Vice President Harris is in Charlotte, N.C. (all times Eastern) |
- 1 p.m. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby and national economic adviser Lael Brainard brief reporters. 💻 Livestream
- 1:30 p.m.: First House votes. Last votes are expected around 4:10 p.m. 🗓️ Today's agenda
- 1:45 p.m.: The Senate holds a confirmation vote. 🗓️ Today's agenda
- 1:50 p.m.: Harris participates in a roundtable in Charlotte to discuss gun violence. 💻 Livestream
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