The Hill's 12:30 Report — Nikki Haley’s big dilemma

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View Online  12:30 REPORT PRESENTED BY It's Thursday. The dust is settling following the New Hampshire primary, and Republicans are beginning to assess what the results could tell us for the November election. Former President Trump threatened to blacklist GOP rival Nikki Haley's campaign donors. Meanwhile, Haley mocked Trump's "temper tantrum." Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) posted a video chatting about football with his son. It sounds minor, but it's the most relaxed I've seen him. I think this realness could have really helped his campaign. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) suggested that Ukraine aid may need to be separated from border security talks. This has been a GOP condition for months in negotiations with Democrats, so this would be a big deal to reverse. The best thing I've read this week is an official statement from the U.S. Embassy in London after an American professor suggested adding salt to tea. I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.   🥊 On The Campaign Trail Why Nikki Haley has 'The Clash' stuck in her head: 🎤 Click here for today's theme song while you read. 😉   The talk of the campaign world is whether GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley should stick it out through her home state of South Carolina, or whether she should bow out.   On one hand: Trump won Iowa by 30 points and New Hampshire by 11 points. He's polling 33.7 percentage points higher than Haley in her home state of South Carolina, according to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ's polling index. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Haley wins the nomination unless there is a major shake-up.   On the other hand: South Carolina is the next major contest, and Tuesday's primary results show just how unpopular former President Trump is among independent voters. Never-Trump Republicans have been arguing for months that the way to defeat him is to rally around one candidate. Haley only recently started slamming Trump, and it is clearly getting under his skin. ➤  DON AND NIKKI ARE TRADING JABS:  Trump's threat to Haley donors: Trump warned that anyone who contributes to Haley's campaign will be "permanently barred from the MAGA camp." Trump's full post   Haley accused Trump of having a 'temper tantrum': "We were very excited last night because we saw that we had gone up 25 points in a month. And we were thrilled," Haley said of the Granite State primary. "And then Donald Trump got out there and just threw a temper tantrum." Her full quote Wow, this is an interesting stat: ©  GIPHY/Curb Your Enthusiasm A CNN exit poll of New Hampshire voters found that 7 in 10 voters supporting Nikki Haley in the Republican primary were *not* registered Republicans.   The numbers: 70 percent were independent or undeclared, while just 27 percent were Republicans.   And Trump's support was the *exact* opposite: 70 percent of former President Trump voters were Republican, and 27 percent were undeclared.   Keep in mind about New Hampshire: Republicans and independents can vote in the GOP primary, but Democrats cannot. If a Democrat wanted to vote in the N.H. GOP primary, they would have had to change their party affiliation before Oct. 6. (The Hill)   The Hill's Jared Gans and Julia Mueller explain where Haley's chances of winning the nomination stand. Read — 'Haley faces tough path, difficult decisions in battle with Trump' ➤  FIVE FACTORS THAT COULD DECIDE A BIDEN-TRUMP RACE: The Hill's Niall Stanage argues that the economy, abortion and the Israel-Hamas war are the three biggest policy areas that will determine the general election. Stanage also points out that third-party candidates are a big wild card, as well as questions over Trump's behavior and Biden's age. Read Stanage's explainer ➤  CAMPAIGN TRAIL HEADLINES: 'Trump allies target Nikki Haley in extreme pressure campaign': Axios ''Not a good night for Donald Trump': Why never-Trumpers think he's really losing': "He has defied political gravity before. But voting data out of Iowa and New Hampshire are giving his GOP detractors cause for optimism." Politico 'Trump sees warning signs with voters ahead of November': The Hill 'The presidential election has the potential to be wild. Here are the biggest questions about the race.': The Washington Post 'Male Vanity as Political Weakness': "On the campaign trail, Nikki Haley questioned Donald J. Trump's vitality. Her jabs seemed to penetrate." The New York Times ➤ TIDBITS: 🏈 I've never seen this side of DeSantis: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) posted a selfie video of him chatting with his son, Mason, about football. It's the most relaxed I've ever seen him. 📹 Watch   🗳️ No Labels is looking for its 'unity' ticket: No Labels is openly courting GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley for a third-party run, reports The Hill's Kevin Cirilli, despite the fact that Haley says she isn't dropping out of the GOP race. ^Why this matters: The group said it is more likely to form a "unity" ticket for voters who want another option besides President Biden and former President Trump, assuming he becomes the GOP nominee. (The Hill) 🗓️ In Congress Omg, these talks are going in circles: "Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) on Wednesday floated the possibility to Senate Republicans of splitting Ukraine funding from border security reforms that are coming under heavy criticism from Senate conservatives," report The Hill's Alexander Bolton and Al Weaver. (The Hill)   In a meeting on Wednesday: McConnell acknowledged how tricky the politics of border security policies has been.   Why this matters: Biden had a lot of pushback from Republicans over his request for Ukraine funding. Republicans had demanded that any Ukraine funding would have to be paired with border security changes. (AP) Many Republicans are falling in line, but not a few important names: ©  GIPHY/The Dungeon Run "Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) on Wednesday floated the possibility to Senate Republicans of splitting Ukraine funding from border security reforms that are coming under heavy criticism from Senate conservatives," report The Hill's Alexander Bolton and Al Weaver. (The Hill)   In a meeting on Wednesday: McConnell acknowledged how tricky the politics of border security policies has been.   Why this matters: Biden had a lot of pushback from Republicans over his request for Ukraine funding. Republicans had demanded that any Ukraine funding would have to be paired with border security changes. (AP) Content from our sponsor: Electronic Payments Coalition Main Street Banks Oppose Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill  Over 10,000 credit unions and community banks in all 50 states oppose the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill. Congress should pay attention and oppose it too. Click here to learn more.  🐝 Internet Buzz ☘️ Celebrate: Today is National Irish Coffee Day!   😂🫖 I am wheezing: An American professor started a controversy by suggesting the best way to drink tea is by adding salt to the beverage. Well, the U.S. Embassy in London released a statement on it.   "Tea is the elixir of camaraderie, a sacred bond that unites our nations. We cannot stand idly by as such an outrageous proposal threatens the very foundation of our Special Relationship," the statement read, ending with, "The U.S. Embassy will continue to make tea in the proper way — by microwaving it." Read the full statement — I promise it is worth your time. ©  GIPHY/Real housewives of Atlanta 🧀 I'm skeptical but also intrigued: Becky Krystal, a recipe developer and staff writer at The Washington Post, argues that the best way to make a grilled cheese is in an air fryer. The gist: The bread is uniformly toasted, the cheese melts evenly and you don't need as much butter. (The Washington Post)   🎓 Tuition-free journalism school!: A City University of New York school is becoming tuition-free, reports Axios's Sara Fischer. (Axios) 🗓 On The Agenda The Senate is in. The House meets for a pro forma session at 3 p.m. President Biden is in Wisconsin and Vice President Harris is in California. (all times Eastern) 1:45 p.m.: A Senate cloture vote on a judicial nomination. 🗓️ Today's agenda 2 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks in Superior, Wis., on the bipartisan infrastructure law. 💻 Livestream 3:55 p.m.: Harris speaks at the California State Legislature Democratic Caucus Reception. She then speaks at a campaign reception in Sacramento. 7 p.m.: Biden returns to the White House.  👋 And Finally… While I have you here, can you do me a favor? Levi can't figure out how to walk on snow. Can we help explain it to him? Stay Engaged Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com. A friend forward this to you? Subscribe here.   View past issues of 12:30 Report here and check out other newsletters from The Hill here. See you next time! Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe  Sign Up for Other Newsletters 1625 K Street NW, 9th Floor, Washington, DC 20006 © 1998 - 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved.