| Averting U.S. default this month has become enough of a four-alarm fire that another last-resort procedural option surfaced on Tuesday among Senate Democrats as they resign themselves to the idea that GOP colleagues appear serious when they say they will not vote to approve more Treasury borrowing. Senate Republicans don’t want a default. But they love the idea of giving their Democratic colleagues serious heartburn. “I think there is this consciousness that we are close to a precipice and things need to change,” one Washington Democrat told NBC News. Republicans today plan to filibuster legislation to lift the debt ceiling. An option that presents a slippery slope, but could allow Democrats to perform the heavy lifting, would dispense with the 60-vote filibuster in the Senate for the specific purpose of lifting the debt ceiling. It appears unlikely that 50 Democrats, backed by Vice President Harris as a tie breaker, would go for that idea, but an alternative (using a budget reconciliation maneuver) appeared unpredictable and time-consuming, according to President Biden. Biden on Tuesday night at the White House called the prospect of Democrats turning to a change in filibuster rules to get out of the debt ceiling situation "a real possibility" (CNN, The Associated Press, The New York Times). However, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who vote would be necessary, has said he is open to relying on budget reconciliation but not nixing the filibuster to lift the borrowing cap (The Hill). After speaking about his agenda in Michigan on Tuesday, the president told reporters Democrats are searching for a solution if Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and GOP members balk ahead of an estimated Oct. 18 default deadline and reconciliation is the best problem-solving tool Democrats have. Biden, an old hand at juggling deal-cutting and crisis deadlines with McConnell, added, “They can keep us on the floor for hundreds of amendments. They can just delay this. I don’t think they are going to end up being that irresponsible.” Global markets and longtime Capitol Hill analysts expect borrowing authority to rise before disaster strikes, because U.S. default has never happened. How the political gamesmanship ends remains a mystery. The New York Times: What does McConnell want? The Hill: Senate Democrats float filibuster carveout for debt ceiling. The Hill: Democrats insist they won't back down on debt ceiling. Politico: GOP’s debt limit challenge: “I mean, I’m not going to be a complete asshole about it. But I’m going to make them take some tough votes,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). The Hill: Democrats look to make debt ceiling a winning issue. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, repeated her warning that U.S. default on the nation’s existing obligations would trigger a recession. 
© Getty Images Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers continued to worry about the future of the reconciliation plan on Tuesday as Manchin indicated he is open to a bill in the ballpark of $1.9 trillion to $2.2 trillion, a bit north of the $1.5 trillion he has stuck to for months. “I’m not ruling anything out, but the bottom line is I want to make sure that we’re strategic and we do the right job and we don’t basically add more to the concerns we have right now,” Manchin told reporters Tuesday. As The Hill’s Alexander Bolton writes, the two factions of Democrats are inching closer to a deal on a price tag for the package, but Manchin and centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) are still far apart from Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and others in his sphere. Manchin’s remarks also heartened Biden, who has held numerous conversations with the West Virginia centrist in a bid to bring him on board and reach a deal on the bill. “Well you heard him on TV today. It sure sounds like he’s moving. I hope that’s the case,” Biden told reporters (CNN). The Wall Street Journal: Democrats wrangle over how to shrink $3.5 trillion proposal. The Hill: Biden meets with vulnerable House Democrats with agenda in limbo. The Washington Post: The expectations game hounds Democrats as they try to deliver their vast agenda. Abortion is also cropping up in the reconciliation battle as the two sides clash over whether to include the decades-old Hyde amendment that blocks Medicaid from being used to cover abortion costs, a possibility that has drawn the ire of progressives. Manchin has said that any package would be “dead on arrival” for him if it excludes the amendment, but others in the party are split over whether to include it in a portion of the spending bill that would create a new federal program to provide health care coverage to low-income individuals in GOP-led states that haven’t adopted Medicaid expansions under the Affordable Care Act, as The Hill’s Aris Folley writes. The Hyde amendment has been included in the annual government funding bills since it was introduced in the 1970s by then-Rep. Henry Hyde (R-Ill.). On Tuesday, Biden told reporters after returning from Michigan that he would sign the bill whether the amendment is included or not. “I’d sign it either way,” Biden said (The Washington Post). Paul Kane, The Washington Post: What Joe Manchin wants, decoded. 
© Getty Images More on Capitol Hill: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Tuesday during a floor speech said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell “failed” as a leader and should be replaced ahead of the February expiration of his term. The comments prompted the White House to say that Biden continues to have confidence in Powell. Warren has called for a federal investigation of the central bank for possible insider trading (Bloomberg Law). … The Capitol Police removed a man from a suspicious vehicle in front of the Supreme Court on Tuesday morning, saying in a statement that it had “extracted” a man from an SUV parked in front of the building after an hour-long incident. The suspect, identified as Dale Paul Melvin, 55, of Kimball, Mich., was arrested on suspicion of failure to obey and assault on a police officer. Police later in the day said that the suspect previously came to the Capitol complex in August “and made concerning statements” (The Hill). | 
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