Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Republican candidate Blake Masters will be facing off this evening as they make their case to Arizona voters less than five weeks out from the general election.
It's one of the few instances where the two will be sharing the same stage together, meaning that the debate will serve as a critical opportunity for both candidates to illustrate the contrast between each other. It's an especially important moment for Masters, who has been trailing Kelly in recent polling and funds and has seen outside spending from a super PAC with ties to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) shift its resources elsewhere.
As our Caroline Vakil notes, Masters, who earlier in the midterm season embraced the culture wars and parroted former President Trump's baseless claims about the 2020 election has taken steps to moderate his messaging. Strategists say Masters will need to keep a disciplined message and appeal to centrist voters tonight to stay competitive with Kelly.
What they're saying: "When Trump selected Masters, the Trump bump paid off. The dividend that it paid was his winning that primary," Kevin DeMenna, an Arizona Republican consultant, told Caroline. "At this point, the Arizona electorate is divided into the thirds, one-third is Republican. And frankly, only half of that is what it takes to win that primary, but not what it takes to have general election appeal."
As Arizona State University professor Kim Fridkin suggests, Masters also hasn't had the same kind of time or fundraising advantage that's allowed him to define himself and the race the way that Kelly has. The former NASA astronaut never had a primary challenger and coupled with the fact that he's got a fundraising edge, it gave Kelly a leg up.
"Masters is pretty much an unknown in the state, I would say still, and so he didn't really get a chance to define himself, and that I think is problematic," she told Caroline.
Another debate to keep an eye is the North Carolina Senate debate between Republican candidate Ted Budd and Democrat Cheri Beasley, which is set to take place on Friday. Recent polling show the two polling within the margin of error, meaning the two are effectively tied in the race. The stakes are high given that the seat is among a slew of Senate races in battleground states that will determine control of the upper chamber next year.
But North Carolina has not always been kind to Democrats, unless you're looking back to 2008 — the last time the state elected a Democrat for the Senate or elected the Democratic presidential nominee. While some outside Democratic spending has been invested in the state, members of the party are urging politicos to take the race seriously to avoid squandering a possible pickup opportunity.
"It's a year where we have a great candidate, and I think the national Democrats are making a big mistake if they're not paying attention to North Carolina," Bruce Thompson, a veteran Democratic consultant in the state, told Max Greenwood last month about the race.
One last thing: Be sure to check out The Hill's coverage tonight and Friday night. We'll have takeaways of both debates in case you miss either!
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