Good Monday evening. This is Daniel Allott with The Hill's Top Opinions.
Last week's political news was dominated by Donald Trump's announcement that he is running for president again in 2024. Much analysis has followed, with pundits weighing in on which Republicans might challenge Trump for the nomination and whether Trump has a legitimate shot at joining Grover Cleveland as the only presidents ever to serve non-consecutive terms.
But the real question, writes political consultant KEITH NAUGHTON, is whether Trump will make it to the primaries at all.
He asks, "Could Trump flame out and not even make it to the Iowa caucuses?"
Trump faces some formidable headwinds, including declining poll numbers and increasing legal problems. Worse, says Naughton, Trump doesn't have anything new to offer voters.
This was clear in Trump's announcement speech, which many commentators felt was anti-climactic. "Instead of a big show," writes Naughton, "America saw Trump stroll into a gaudy country club ballroom and drone his way through a desultory teleprompter speech."
"It all adds up to a candidate without a message, without credibility and even — finally — bereft of showmanship."
Ultimately, given Trump's intense hatred of losing, if a loss looks likely, Naughton believes Trump may bow out of the 2024 sweepstakes early.
Few pundits are forecasting an early Trump exit – too many have been burned before, predicting Trump's demise only to see him survive and succeed.
But Naughton believes political conditions have changed now. Sure, Trump's opponents could self-destruct, But, given his "own self-destructive tendencies," he writes, "it would take an epic series of meltdowns to prop Trump up."
Read Naughton's entire op-ed here.
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