A new poll suggests Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) is the slight favorite in the high-stakes Senate runoff in Georgia on Tuesday, in a race that could help Democrats expand their majority in the upper chamber.
The race between Warnock and Republican candidate Herschel Walker rhas hit records in spending and encouraged high turnout. The GOP is looking to stave off another key battleground loss after many of their Senate candidates in states like Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania were unable to cross the finish line in the general election.
A new poll from Emerson College Polling and The Hill released on Thursday looks promising for Warnock, which shows him leading Walker 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters. When undecided voters were asked which way they leaned, it boosted Warnock and Walker to 51 percent and 49 percent respectively, though it falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, effectively tying the candidates.
But what's notable is that when respondents were asked whom they expected would prevail in the race, Warnock led Walker by a higher margin of 57 percent to 43 percent.
Another polling error?: Perhaps one of the best reminders we learned from this past midterm cycle is that polling isn't always reliable. After all, many polls showed certain Republicans in battleground states with an advantage given President Biden's underwater approval ratings, key issues of inflation lingering on voters' minds and historical precedent. But actual turnout reflected a very different story, where Democrats have so far seen all of their incumbents win reelection in the Senate while the party lost the House by a narrower-than-expected margin.
The polling isn't just interesting about what it tells us about the Senate runoff, but also about 2024.
The survey illuminates how voters feel about a possible presidential bid from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). The poll found that in a hypothetical 2024 matchup between DeSantis and Biden, DeSantis leads the president 47 percent to 43 percent among Georgia voters. Meanwhile, when Georgia voters were asked about a hypothetical matchup between Biden and former President Trump, the president barely edged past Trump 44 percent to 43 percent, well within the margin of error.
And a Marquette Law School poll released on Thursday, too, suggests that DeSantis could be a formidable contender should he decide to pursue a White House bid next cycle. That poll found DeSantis and Biden receiving 42 percent support each in a 2024 hypothetical matchup.
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