Equilibrium/Sustainability — A quarter of biodiversity may be erased by 2100

View Online    Equilibrium/ Sustainability Equilibrium/ Sustainability   A quarter of biodiversity may be erased by 2100 © iStock The Earth may lose some 10 percent of its animals and plants by 2050 and about 27 percent by the end of the century, a new study has found.      Using one of Europe's most powerful supercomputers, scientists created a synthetic Earth replete with virtual species and 15,000 food webs to predict how plants and animals will fare amid climate and land-use changes.      Stressing that the world is "beyond doubt...in the throes" of its sixth mass extinction event, the researchers published their findings on Friday in Science Advances.      This assessment diverges from previous studies by accounting for co-extinctions — when species disappear because those that they depend on succumb to shifts in climate or land use, the authors explained.     "Think of a predatory species that loses its prey to climate change," co-author Corey Bradshaw, of Australia's Flinders University, said in a statement.        This loss, he explained, is known as "primary extinction" because the prey "succumbed directly to a disturbance."     "But with nothing to eat, its predator will also go extinct," Bradshaw said. "Every species depends on others in some way."     The researchers therefore decided to build a virtual Earth of interconnected species networks connected by who eats whom, according to the study. They then applied climate and land-use changes to that system.     By creating this world, the scientists were able to "determine the likelihood of real-world tipping points," co-author Giovanni Strona, of the European Commission and the University of Helsinki, said in a statement.      Their model forecasted up to 34 percent more co-extinctions by 2100 than are predicted by direct effects alone.     "Children born today who live into their 70s can expect to witness the disappearance of literally thousands of plant and animal species," Bradshaw said.  Welcome to Equilibrium, a newsletter that tracks the growing global battle over the future of sustainability. I'm Sharon Udasin. Send tips and feedback. A friend forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here.   Today we'll start with some good news in the Intermountain West, where snowpack has been substantial for the season thus far. Then we'll see why the Biden administration is buying back oil to fill the country's reserve.   Plus: Why commercial-scale fusion won't develop overnight.  Mountain snowpack 'off to a great start'   © iStock Winter snowpack in the Intermountain West is "off to a great start," but more is needed to improve long-term drought conditions, federal meteorologists announced on Friday.     A decent beginning: Most of the Intermountain West experienced a cool and wet November, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).   A branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NIDIS is a multi-agency partnership responsible for issuing drought updates.  The states of focus in this update included Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah.  The importance of snowpack: We previously explored the importance of snowpack in the Intermountain West, in an installment of The Hill's Dried Up series.      Snowmelt from the Rocky Mountains feeds the Colorado River system as runoff in the spring — providing water to consumers hundreds or thousands of miles away.      A dip in exceptional conditions: Exceptional drought plunged to less than 0.5 percent of the region, persisting in central Utah and northeastern Colorado, NIDIS reported.  Drought levels are ranked from D0 to D4: abnormal, moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional.   The total area in severe to exceptional drought was at its lowest in two years.  State by state: Overall, 8 percent of the region is experiencing extreme drought or worse, but this is the lowest amount since August 2020, according to NIDIS.  0 percent of Arizona is in extreme drought 4.4 percent of Colorado is in extreme to exceptional drought 3.7 percent of New Mexico is in extreme to exceptional drought 31.1 percent of Utah is in extreme to exceptional drought 6.5 percent of Wyoming is in extreme drought Things may change: Despite these relatively positive beginnings, NOAA's seasonal outlook for January to March 2023 forecasted a warmer and drier-than-normal season for the Southwest.   Biden administration to replenish oil reserve  © Department of Energy via AP The Department of Energy will buy 3 million barrels of oil to replace recent withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, our colleague Zack Budryk reported.      Locking prices in place: The Biden administration presented the purchase as a chance to buy oil at a fixed price and repurchase it for less than the average of $96 per barrel it sold for.   This approach "can give producers the assurance to make investments today," an Energy Department statement said.  Rather than relying on a volatile crude market, producers will benefit from sale prices that are "locked in place," the statement added.   Why is the buyback necessary? After oil prices rose earlier this year in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration withdrew a record 180 million barrels from the reserve.      Ensuring relief is ready: The administration announced plans for a buyback in May and began a bidding process in October.   At the time, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that the process would be timed to reduce oil prices.   Such a tactic, she explained, would ensure that the reserve "stands ready to deliver on its mission to provide relief when needed most."  Senate rejects Manchin's permitting reform © The Hill, Greg Nash The Senate on Thursday evening blocked Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.Va.) latest effort to attach an energy permitting reform to must-pass legislation, our colleague Rachel Frazin reported.      Insufficient support: The chamber rejected Manchin's permitting reform amendment from getting onto a defense funding bill called the National Defense Authorization Act in a 47-47 vote.  Sixty votes were needed to advance the measure.  Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) had promised Manchin he would take up the legislation in exchange for the latter's vote on the Inflation Reduction Act.   What's permitting reform, again? The legislation would speed up the process for approving new U.S. energy projects.      The reform was expected to help advance both fossil fuel and renewable energy projects, though it has received pushback from both sides of the aisle.     Politics versus pipeline: In a statement following the vote, Manchin slammed his Republican colleagues who voted against the measure, Frazin reported.   He accused Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and GOP leaders of prioritizing their political agenda.   "Mitch McConnell and his Republican caucus voted down a bill that would have completed the Mountain Valley Pipeline and quickly delivered natural gas to the market," Manchin said.  What does the GOP say? Republicans have said that the reform doesn't go far enough, stressing that time limits for environmental reviews must be better-enforced, according to Frazin.      They have also opposed provisions that would allow the federal government to control the construction of electric transmission lines.      And Democrats? While progressive Democrats have raised concerns a reform they feel would advance fossil fuel projects, President Biden issued a statement Thursday morning in support of Manchin's proposal.     "I support Senator Manchin's permitting reform proposal as a way to cut Americans' energy bills, promote U.S. energy security, and boost our ability to get energy projects built and connected to the grid," Biden said.  Commercial fusion won't develop overnight © Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory via AP This week's nuclear fusion breakthrough at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is expected to bring an influx of cash toward developing this clean energy resource.    Nonetheless, it will still be many years before the technology can become a mainstream power source.      What was the breakthrough? Scientists at the Livermore lab — a federal facility in California — generated more energy from nuclear fusion reactions than they used to start the process, as we previously reported.  Nuclear fusion is the process of fusing atoms together to generate energy.   Unlike nuclear fission, which splits atoms apart, fusion doesn't create radioactive waste.   But fusion is incredibly energy intensive and has previously required more energy to start the process than it ultimately produces.  Bringing in the money: The announcement has generated enthusiasm within the private sector, our colleague Rachel Frazin reported.  This advancement is getting investors "kind of interested, especially with all the media attention," said Phil Larochelle, who leads fusion investments at Breakthrough Energy Ventures.   Mike Farrell, vice president for inertial fusion technologies at General Atomics firm, described the news as "providing the impetus" for both government and private funding.    But others are skeptical: Chris Gadomski, head of nuclear research at BloombergNEF, told Frazin that the lab's announcement would likely do "very little" to advance commercial fusion.   "This doesn't seem like it's got any hope for being a replicable technology that can be commercialized," Gadomski said.    "I think this will carry much more weight if they replicated the experiment and they do get a gain again, because who knows? Maybe they just got lucky," he added.   BREAKING EVEN ON FUSION For fusion to deliver on its promise of "limitless, clean energy," The Wall Street Journal says that the technology must meet three "break-even points."   The first of those points is purely scientific, when the fusion reaction generates more energy than it consumed.  This was achieved on Dec. 5, as detailed in the Livermore lab announcement.   Engineering obstacles: A second break-even point involves engineering — and requires that the entire fusion reactor produce more energy than it consumes, according to the Journal.   The Livermore experiment used 2.05 megajoules of energy while resulting in 3.15 megajoules of fusion energy output, The Washington Post reported.    But lasers used to generate the reaction required an additional 300 megajoules — 100 times the amount of energy generated by the reaction.   Ramping up the juice: "The laser wasn't designed to be efficient," said Mark Herrmann, the Livermore lab's program director for weapon physics and design, told reporters, per the Journal.      "The laser was designed to give us as much juice as possible to make these incredible conditions happen in the laboratory," Hermann added.     And then there's economics: A final milestone that researchers must overcome is an economic hurdle — the point at which fusion because cost-effective to operate, the Journal reported.      "It's going to take a lot more technological advancement to make it a practical energy source," Jonathan Menard, of the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, told the Journal.    Follow-up Friday © AP In which we revisit some of the issues we've covered this week.        Ukraine's second-largest city without power, water following Russian attacks  UNICEF said this week that nearly 7 million Ukrainian children are at risk due to Russian attacks on energy supplies. The mayor of Kharkiv — Ukraine's second largest city — said his residents had no power, heating and water on Friday, after Russian missile strikes caused "colossal" damage to critical infrastructure, The Guardian reported.  Nor'easter conditions to affect New York, New England this weekend   A winter storm that began last weekend in California has caused whiteout blizzards in the Northern Plains and deadly tornadoes in the South. The same storm is set to bombard millions of people in the Northeast this weekend, bringing nor'easter conditions to New York and New England, CNN reported.   California solar sector 'enters a new era'  California moved on Thursday to reduce the paybacks that solar producers receive from selling power to the grid. The Los Angeles Times explored what might happen next as the sector "enters a new era" — how the ruling will influence decisions to install solar, whether electricity rates will budge and how low-income households will be affected.   Please visit The Hill's Sustainability section online for more and check out other newsletters here. We'll see you next week. Sign up for Equilibrium/Sustainability Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe Sign Up for Other Newsletters 1625 K Street NW, 9th Floor, Washington, DC 20006 © 1998 - 2022 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved.

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