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MORNING REPORT

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Friday, September 8

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

Biden, Trump rivals struggle in polls

Fall is fast approaching, even though the temperatures may be saying otherwise. But one season is in full swing, no matter rain or shine — polling season.

The upcoming weekend will give both Democrats and Republicans plenty of time to mull over the most recent numbers as they hash out strategies for the upcoming primaries. For President Biden and Democrats, a key task is assuaging concerns about Biden's age — he's 80 — after a Thursday CNN poll found 46 percent of registered voters said any Republican presidential nominee would be better than Biden in next year's election, and 49 percent said Biden's age was their biggest concern about him as a candidate in 2024 (The Hill).

Former President Trump, who maintains a firm grasp on the GOP field, is 77.

One way the Biden campaign is reaching out to younger voters: Sending Vice President Harris on the road for a monthlong college tour, where she'll travel to more than a dozen campuses across eight states to try and mobilize a key demographic, some of whom have expressed less than favorable views of Biden (ABC News).

CNN analysis: Biden's unpopularity could give Trump his shot at reclaiming power.

MEANWHILE, TRUMP'S RIVALS ARE SCRAMBLING to catch up to the former president in the critical state of Iowa, which kicks off GOP primary voting Jan. 15, writes The Hill's Jared Gans. Trump has built up significant polling leads nationally and in early-voting states, which despite some fluctuations have remained consistent amid four criminal indictments and over many months. Reminder: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) beat Trump in Iowa in 2016.

The former president has about 43 percent support in Iowa, 26 points ahead of his next closest opponent, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, according to RealClearPolitics's polling average of the race. It's a commanding lead but measurably less than the national average, where Trump has nearly 54 percent backing, an almost 40 point lead over DeSantis.

That gap in a GOP race without an incumbent president is rare, leading fellow Republican candidate and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's campaign to argue in a recent memo that Trump is essentially competing as an incumbent.

Haley herself almost never ranks higher than third place in any poll. In The Memo, The Hill's Niall Stanage asks if she can become a serious contender for the nomination.

POINTING IN HER FAVOR: She's trying to capitalize on the momentum she received from a strong performance in the first GOP debate and is creeping up in GOP polls; a CNN survey conducted by SSRS released Thursday suggested she might be the strongest nominee to go up against Biden in a general election; Haley led Biden 49 percent to 43 percent, while every other major Republican candidate remains neck and neck with him.

CNN: South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) to endorse Trump at a rally today, sources say.

👉 3 Things to Know Today:

A proposed 10 percent hourly wage hike in GM's contract counteroffer is "insulting," UAW president Shawn Fain said in a Thursday statement (Detroit Free Press).
Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is weighing a House strategy next week that observers in both parties fear could shut down the government (CNN).
🏈 The NFL season has begun: The Detroit Lions upset the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs 21-20 on Thursday (Detroit Free Press).

Leading the Day

➤ 4 QUESTIONS … with Darrell M. West, Brookings Institution senior fellow for technology innovation.

Alexis: You've written about the absence of guard rails to protect voters from AI-generated political messaging and advertising. This week, Google became the first tech company to announce that advertisers, including on YouTube, must disclose the use of "synthetic content" that depicts "realistic-looking people or events," including in political ads (The Hill). How are labeling or disclosures about AI-created images and audio supposed to help the electorate? Voters can't unsee faked images or un-hear AI-invented voices.

West: Disclosure is integral to election campaigns. There are disclosure requirements for campaign finance and campaign advertising so it makes sense to extend that notion to AI-generated images due to their possible impact on voters. People can't unsee fake images, but knowing they were artificially generated will help them evaluate the message and reach their own determinations regarding the sponsoring entity.

Alexis: Members of Congress and the Federal Election Commission are mulling whether to weigh in. What are you expecting?

West: Disclosure is a minimum step legislators and regulators should take because that long has been a vital part of federal elections policy. As federal officials did with radio and television, it makes sense for them to make sure new communications tools correspond to basic principles such as transparency, fairness and a lack of bias. Officials also should consider how to handle fake content that leads to discernible harms. There are protections against criminal activity, consumer fraud and defamation, so members could extend those basic legal protections to AI-generated content in federal races.

Alexis: A political action committee that supports Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis's campaign recently used AI to impersonate former President Trump's voice as part of a 30-second attack ad (The Hill). First, why is that legal, and is that a trend you think is here to stay in campaign ads and messaging?

West: Judges have long ruled that campaign speech is protected speech, so there was nothing illegal about that political action committee communication. Yet that example illustrates what is likely to come in the 2024 elections. AI-generated content is going to escalate in number and variety. Literally anyone can use these tools. We certainly will see bad actors who abuse this technology. They will deploy it to defraud consumers, engage in criminal activity and mislead voters. Everyone needs to be prepared for a raucous campaign that is going to push every boundary in terms of communications.

Alexis: I'm sure you have a long list, but what's your No. 1 concern related to AI's impact on the 2024 elections?

West: I expect a dramatic increase in disinformation in the 2024 campaign. Many foreign countries around the world have a big stake in the upcoming race and a number of them already have a preferred candidate. It won't just be Russia and China that seek to influence the American elections, but places such as Iran, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Israel, among others. Both Republicans and Democrats should unite against these foreign influence interventions and make sure that Americans decide this very important election.

➤ CONGRESS

Alabama Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, is sparking exasperation inside the Pentagon, in the West Wing and among lawmakers in both parties after months of his blockade against Defense Department nominations, a tactic he describes as public protest.

PENTAGON BRASS COMPLAIN that Tuberville is eroding military readiness because nominees can't get confirmed and senior officers can't get Senate-approved promotions while his "hold" on proceedings stretches into an eighth month. Tuberville denies he's harming U.S. security. What he objects to is a defense reimbursement policy that covers travel for abortions. He's viewed by some GOP Senate colleagues as wrong on tactics and by admirers in Alabama as principled on policy.

BOTTOM LINE: No detente.

The former Auburn University football coach is also talkative. During an interview with NewsNation, he declined to say Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., who is Black, is qualified to be the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to succeed Gen. Mark Milley. Tuberville said he "did not like" Brown's comments about "color or race or anything like that" following the murder of George Floyd in 2020.

"THE MILITARY IS NOT AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER," Tuberville added. "It shouldn't be. … I don't care if we have 100 percent Black pilots in the Air Force. I want the best people that can win."

The senator, who was elected in 2020 and will be 69 this month, says U.S. generals are exaggerating to pressure him to relent. He has called their arguments "woke propaganda" and defended his position.

"I've talked to a lot of them and so they're making a mountain out of a molehill here," he told NewsNation. "We've got more generals and admirals than you can stir with a stick. That Pentagon over there is running full with people over there that really have nothing to do with readiness. They just have a job. They've got stars on their shoulders. They do make a few decisions here or there, but it's the captains, the majors, the colonels, the sergeants, the privates that are getting ready to fight wars."

Tuberville in May said during an interview that white nationalists in the military are "Americans," a comment that set off a firestorm. He criticized the president for seeking to extricate extremists from the armed services.

Retired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro told Bloomberg News's "Sound On" Thursday that Tuberville is misguided about his impact on readiness and a "coward" for choosing not to introduce amendments in committee or on appropriations legislation to try to get what he wants. "Sen. Tuberville never served in uniform. He's never heard a shot fired in anger. He truly is clueless about what is going on," Punaro said. "This is the wrong thing to do."

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➤ TRUMP WORLD

In Georgia's 2020 election racketeering case, defendant Trump may seek to move out of state court and into federal court, a potentially more favorable venue, his lawyer said in a court filing on Thursday. Several of Trump's 18 co-defendants, including former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, have filed petitions to move their criminal cases to federal court since being charged last month following an investigation led by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) (Reuters).

Willis wrote a scathing nine-page letter to House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) accusing him of illegal intrusion into Georgia's prosecution of Trump (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). He asked her to turn over all documents related to her prosecution of former Trump and 18 other defendants. Some Georgia Republicans have pushed to impeach or sanction Willis, although Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has rejected such proposals. In Washington, Jordan's committee says it wants to determine whether federal and Fulton County authorities have coordinated their Trump prosecutions.

A jury on Thursday needed five hours to convict former Trump White House adviser Peter Navarro of contempt of Congress for refusing to comply with a congressional subpoena as part of the Jan. 6 congressional probe of the attacks on the Capitol (The Hill).

➤ ADMINISTRATION

Biden on Friday arrives in New Delhi, India, for a Group of 20 summit and plans to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi before the gathering gets underway (ABC News and The Associated Press).

The Hill's Laura Kelly and Alex Gangitano report that while the balance of attendees will favor the West and its allies, the absence of President Xi Jinping of China and Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely weaken the impact of the meeting where the world's largest economies seek to deliver consensus on some of the most challenging global issues.

The Washington Post: "Brand India" — and Modi — take center stage at the G-20 summit.

Elsewhere

➤ SOUTHERN NEIGHBOR

The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals issued a temporary stay Thursday night allowing the state of Texas to keep floating barriers in the Rio Grande. The panel's decision Thursday puts on hold an order from a federal district judge on Wednesday to take down the barriers while the appeals court considers the case (CNN).

The district judge on Wednesday had dismissed the idea that a foreign "invasion" justified Texas's placement of a floating row of barriers in the middle of the Rio Grande River. As The Hill's Saul Elbein and Rafael Bernal report, the barriers, armed with razor sharp blades intended to deter migrants, became the focus of both public outcry in a federal lawsuit when Texas officials dragged them into the middle of the Rio Grande in July. In a press release on Wednesday, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott implied he would move the barriers in accordance with the judge's order. But the governor insisted that he would fight to protect Texas's "sovereign authority."

Border enforcement is a widely acknowledged prerogative of the federal government — except, arguably, in the case of "invasion" by a foreign military, which Abbott and his supporters have long argued describes the migration of families — often with children — to the United States.

Meanwhile, half of Mexico's Congress is female. The cabinet is gender-balanced. And now, women have won the primaries of the two leading political blocs — making it likely that the country will elect its first female president next summer, ahead of the United States (The Washington Post).

The Associated Press: The Mexican Supreme Court's abortion decision expands access to millions and stands in sharp contrast to the U.S.

Opinion

Republicans in Wyoming see clearly what's happening, by Stephanie Muravchik and Jon A. Shields, guest essayists, The New York Times.
9/11 families deserve a verdict, not a plea deal — and America does, too, by Tara D. Sonenshine, opinion contributor, The Hill.

Where and When

The House will convene for a pro forma session at 1 p.m. Lawmakers return to Washington Tuesday.

The Senate will convene Monday at 3 p.m. 🎂 Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is 82 today. He's working to reelect Biden while not saying if he'll seek a fourth term next year. Some close to the senator expect he'll run again (Washington Examiner).

The president refueled at Ramstein, Germany, before continuing to New Delhi, India, to participate in the Group of 20 summit. Biden and India's prime minister plan to meet Friday ahead of the leaders' gathering.

Vice President Harris returned to Washington from Jakarta, Indonesia, early this morning.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in India. She offered remarks and held a press briefing ahead of the G20 summit in New Delhi. She met with Spain's Nadia Calviño, first vice president and minister for the economy and digital transformation, at 5 a.m. ET. She met with India's minister of finance, Nirmala Sitharaman. Yellen will confer with Italy's minister of finance, Giancarlo Giorgetti, at 8 a.m. ET. She will join Biden during his meeting with Prime Minister Modi at 10:15 a.m. ET.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is traveling to India and Vietnam to accompany Biden today through Monday.

The Closer

© The Associated Press / Wilfredo Lee | A scientist from the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science prepares to examine Paradise Reef near Key Biscayne, Fla., in August.

And finally … Bravo to this week's Morning Report Quiz winner, who cooly answered trivia questions about heat!

Here's who, among 25 puzzlers who were oh-so close, went 4/4 without breaking a sweat: Lori Benso.

She knew that the European Union Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that the months of June to August were Earth's warmest such period since records began in 1940.

Sea surface temperatures around Florida this summer reached the highest levels on record since satellites began collecting ocean data.

Various scientists this week blamed El Niño, greenhouse gases and denial of climate change as culprits behind extreme weather events this summer. The answer we were looking for was "all of the above."

Lincoln, Neb., accustomed to harsh temperatures in winter, set a daily record high of 102 degrees on Aug. 21.