Wednesday, November 27 | By Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch |
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| ▪ What might Trump's tariffs mean for consumers? ▪ Incoming immigration czar tees up deportation plans ▪ Biden touts Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire ▪ How did Harris lose? Her campaign team talks. |
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© The Associated Press | Judy Bottoni |
Trump's tariff plans rock global, local leaders |
President-elect Trump on Monday announced what he sees as the fix for the state of the economy and inflation: Huge new tariffs on foreign goods entering the United States. With his announcement, Trump sent shock waves across the nation's northern and southern borders, vowing sweeping 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as a 10 percent tariff increase on goods from China. The hikes would take effect as soon as Trump takes office, and function as part of his effort to crack down on illegal immigration and drugs. The three countries are the U.S.'s largest trading partners. Thanks to decades of trade agreements between the North American neighbors, Mexico and Canada are particularly intertwined in U.S. auto production and energy output. During the campaign, Trump also promoted the idea of a "reciprocal" tariff, in which the U.S. would match the tariff rates that other countries put on American goods, and suggested using tariff revenue to replace income taxes. The Biden administration also raised tariffs on goods from China, but Trump's plans are much larger. His tariffs would affect trillions of dollars of products, rather than tens of billions. CNN: Trump announced Jamieson Greer as his pick to serve as the next U.S. trade representative. No stranger to the role, Greer served as chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer, the trade representative during Trump's first term, when the administration implemented tariffs. Officials from Mexico, Canada and China — as well as major industry groups — warned the threat of hefty tariffs on goods would harm the economies of all involved, cause inflation to spike and damage job markets. Trump's Monday pledge roiled currency, bond and equity markets on Tuesday. "The folly here is that such tariffs will, in the end, boomerang back to the U.S. in the form of higher inflation and rising interest rates," Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist for the Economic Outlook Group, told Reuters. Trump, he added, "will undo the singular pledge he gave to Americans during the campaign, which is to bring the cost of living down." The plan isn't particularly popular: Two-thirds of Americans think Trump's tariff plans will only add to rising costs if implemented, and many are planning purchases ahead of his inauguration anticipating higher prices, according to a Harris poll conducted for The Guardian. ▪ The Associated Press: Trump vows tariffs over immigration. Here's what the numbers say about border crossings, drugs and crime. ▪ The Hill: Trump says he's going to impose new tariffs: When could it impact your wallet? ▪ The Wall Street Journal: If the president-elect follows through with his tariff plans, consumers and businesses are likely to see prices rise on everything from fresh fruit to electronics. Keith Rockwell, a former director at the World Trade Organization, told The Guardian there's a chance Trump's move could spark a trade war. "The United States exports hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of goods to these countries," he said. "Anyone who expects that they will stand pat and not retaliate has not been paying attention." Others believe the president-elect's latest threats may just be a negotiating tactic. Either way, the Monday announcement served as a reminder of how Trump's first term was defined by social media posts that set off alarm bells across diplomatic channels and international markets. In his first term, "Donald Trump was willing to tweet out tariff threats, usually in the evening, after watching Fox news, and those tweets typically didn't come to much of anything," Scott Lincicome, a trade expert at the libertarian Cato Institute, told NPR. The countries Trump is targeting reacted swiftly to the proposed tariffs. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Tuesday warned that Trump's proposed penalties would only wind up causing inflation and unemployment in the U.S. — and made clear her country could respond with tariffs of its own. "One tariff would be followed by another in response, and so on until we put at risk common businesses," Sheinbaum said. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday he had a "good" conversation with Trump shortly after Trump's social media post, working to tamp down fears of an immense economic hit to Canada. Roughly 77 percent of Canadian exports go to the U.S., according to the Toronto Region board of trade. Trade experts warned of sweeping economic consequences for all those involved. He did not say if Canada would impose retaliatory tariffs, as Ottawa did during a previous round of trade hostilities during Trump's first term. The New York Times: A vulnerable Trudeau, facing a general election in 2025, hopes to muster unity against Trump's tariff plans. Neither the U.S. nor China would win a trade war, the Chinese Embassy in Washington said Monday, after Trump threatened to slap an additional 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports. "China believes that China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial in nature," embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said in a statement. On Capitol Hill, the reception among Democrats was frosty. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) criticized Trump's tariff threats on "CNN News Central." "I think that the president-elect has failed to really face the practical consequences," Blumenthal said. "I think he's heading toward a real horror show where the consequences can't be squared with the promises he made." |
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Smart Take
with Bob Cusack |
| Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) recently delivered a speech that didn't get much attention, but it was noteworthy. Thune, who will be Senate majority leader next year, highlighted a quote last week from the bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy's final report: "The Commission finds that the U.S. military lacks both the capabilities and the capacity required to be confident it can deter and prevail in combat." Thune repeated the line for emphasis, adding, "That's a pretty damning statement." He called on Congress to prioritize the pending Defense authorization bill. The foreign policy challenges facing the U.S. are growing, Thune said, and delays to the defense policy measure aren't helping. The commission, which was created by Congress and whose members are nongovernment experts in national security, found China is outpacing the U.S. military in many ways and unless there is a pivot in U.S. plans, "the balance of power will continue to shift in China's favor." Trump, Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) are vowing next year to boost defense spending, which will attract many Democratic votes. At the same time, members have to crack down on wasteful government spending, and the Pentagon's track record is poor — it recently failed an audit for the seventh year in a row. The bottom line is that wonky defense bills don't attract a lot of headlines, but they are vital to our national security. |
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- Generous holiday revelers take note: Here's how to maximize your tax breaks for charitable giving.
- The government indicted a former confidential FBI informant on tax charges after he fabricated claims to the bureau about the president. Alexander Smirnov falsely told the FBI that the head of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma told him he had paid Biden and his son Hunter Biden $5 million.
- Lawmakers sound upbeat about potentially locating the U.S. Space Command headquarters in Alabama rather than Colorado with help from the incoming Trump administration.
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© The Associated Press | Eric Gay |
Tom Homan, the incoming Trump White House adviser on immigration, joined Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) on Tuesday at the U.S. border for a political event to tee up the president-elect's plan to deport large numbers of undocumented migrants soon after he's sworn in. Homan, who has appeared regularly on conservative news outlets, describes Trump as intently focused on security and child protection with policies to round up and deport immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally or who will need to wait for asylum hearings outside the U.S. Homan, a former police officer and former immigration official under Democratic and Republican presidents, says the president-elect wants to "save" what he calls "alien" children. He described Texas as a "model" for other states in its handling of the immigration crisis. Speaking Tuesday on Fox News's "Fox & Friends," Homan accused the Biden administration of "hiding" in the U.S. missing and sexually exploited illegal immigrants who are minors. "We need to save these children," he said. It's a theme Trump's allies hope can influence public opinion and soften the optics of techniques the incoming administration expects to use to carry out its "mass deportations." During his campaign, Trump replaced his talk of a wall with a focus on immigration as a safety and security problem because of criminals and illegal drugs that make their way into the United States across the border from Mexico. "I think by telling that story," Homan continued, "President Trump will have the support of the American people across the board." "We're not waiting until Jan. 20," he added. "We're already planning what we're going to do to lock down the state of Texas." Homan said the president-elect will issue immigration executive orders, including the "Remain in Mexico" policy that was put in place by Trump in 2019 and rescinded by Biden in 2021. CNN: Texas pivots from feuding with Biden over the border to providing the blueprint for Trump. More nominations: The president-elect announced his intention to nominate Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University professor, physician and economist, to be director of the National Institutes of Health. He said he will nominate biotech investor Jim O'Neill to be deputy secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services. He's a former CEO of the Thiel Foundation founded by Trump supporter and billionaire investor Peter Thiel. O'Neill served previously at HHS. Trump tapped investor John Phelan, who has no military service,to be secretary of the Navy, a position currently held by Carlos Del Toro, confirmed in 2021. ▪ The Hill: Takeaways from Trump's health agency appointees. ▪ CBS News: Here's a list of the president-elect's nominations and appointments as of this morning. White House staff choices: Trump on Tuesday named Kevin Hassett, a former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to lead the White House National Economic Council. He appointed Vince Haley, his campaign director of policy and speechwriting, to be director of the White House Domestic Policy Council. Handoff document: After weeks of delay, the Trump transition team signed a memorandum of understanding with the Biden White House to sync preparations to govern as one presidency ends and another begins at noon on Jan. 20. But Trump, leery of the General Services Administration (GSA), will not use government-provided computers, federal funds, or federally supplied workspace for the transition. He is not using FBI vetting for security checks and he has not signed an ethics pledge himself, although he is requiring members of his transition to do so. He plans to publicly report transition donors, incoming White House chief of staff Susie Wiles said in a statement. She said the Trump team's transition ethics plan will be posted on the GSA website. ▪ The Hill: Trump may rely on acting secretaries if nominees fail to muster GOP support. ▪ The Hill: The school choice movement embraces new possibilities with a Trump presidency. |
- Holiday note: Morning Report (including the weekly quiz) will take a Thanksgiving break and return Monday. Until then, stay up to date with The Hill's Tipsheet.
- The House will meet for a pro forma session at 10 a.m. Friday. The Senate will meet Friday for a pro forma session at 9 a.m.
- The president is in Nantucket, Mass., for Thanksgiving. Biden has no public events today. He and first lady Jill Biden plan to return to the White House on Saturday.
- Vice President Harris is in Washington, D.C., and has no public schedule.
- Secretary of State Antony Blinken met this morning in Rome with Pope Francis, will tour the Sistine Chapel and plans to meet with the United States Tri-mission in Italy.
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MIDDLE EAST CEASEFIRE: A U.S.-backed cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect at 4 a.m. local time today, halting the deadliest war in Lebanon in decades. Displaced people returned to the country's south, finding bombed villages and neighborhoods they had fled over the last year as the war dragged on. Israel on Tuesday agreed to the ceasefire, brokered by France and the U.S., which Biden announced from the White House Rose Garden. "This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities," Biden said. "What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed, I emphasize, will not be allowed, to threaten the security of Israel again." Under the deal, a full and permanent ceasefire will be implemented immediately. There will be 60 days permitted for the full withdrawal of Israeli forces — a gradual withdrawal to allow the Lebanese forces to mobilize and move in to secure the area, but the trigger time is immediate. Earlier in the day Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised address that he supported the ceasefire deal, which "allows us to focus on the Iranian threat. We will complete the elimination of Hamas [in Gaza], the return of all the hostages and the return of the residents of the north." ▪ The New York Times: With a deal to end more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, Biden turns his attention back to stopping the war in Gaza before leaving office. ▪ The Times of Israel: Hamas is ready to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, a senior official said, hailing the truce that took hold in Lebanon. ▪ The Hill: Trump's transition team has received briefings from the chief architect of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal under Biden, a senior administration official said Tuesday. UKRAINE: Russia launched its biggest ever drone attack on Ukraine on Monday night and Tuesday morning, sending a reported 188 drones into the country against various targets, resulting in power cuts in part of western Ukraine and damage to residential buildings outside Kyiv. Meanwhile, many U.S. officials concede that in the next months, Ukraine could be pushed into negotiations with Russia to end the war and that it could be forced to give up territory. Biden's reversal of his previous policies — to allow use of antipersonnel mines and U.S. long-range missiles — was intended in part to give Ukraine the strongest possible hand as it enters those potential talks. |
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© The Associated Press | Ben Curtis |
It will take months for Democratic operatives to decide why and how Vice President Harris lost to Trump and what lessons their party should apply in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential contest. One inescapable data point: Trump captured 2.5 million more votes this year than in 2020, and gained larger percentages of the vote against Harris in all 50 states. During 90-plus minutes of Q&A on the Tuesday podcast "Pod Save America," moderated by friendly questioner Dan Pfeiffer, some warnings for the party and its future emerged. The backward-looking finger-pointing from Harris' campaign leaders about the 2024 race took aim at the news media, Republicans, Trump and his donors, a truncated campaign calendar, the sour national mood, the "headwinds" of incumbency and complaints about fractious party members who "eat their own" rather than getting in line for the team. There were few mentions of Biden, although a concession there was no internal campaign planning for a nominee switch, and only compliments for Harris. What happened? "Lighter turnout in some of the areas we had hoped," said campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon. "And then I think we saw a little bit of a drop in support in a few areas for us." Campaign adviser David Plouffe railed at apparent or suspected coordination between the Trump campaign and Trump-allied super PACs, arguing that the Democratic Party, with its affinity for election rules, was "at a disadvantage," adding, "We have to start playing a different game as relates to super PACs." He rejected the notion that the 2024 contest was a "realignment," but said Democrats need to regain support from non-college-educated voters "and particularly those of color" or "the math just doesn't work" in future elections. "You've got to win the center," he added. ▪ The Hill: Dillon said media criticism that the vice president dodged interviews was "completely bulls---." ▪ The Hill: Harris campaign senior adviser Stephanie Cutter said the vice president "wasn't willing" to break with Biden on policy or issues because the campaign had a game plan for its abbreviated, 107-day campaign, saw no benefit in inviting distracting controversies or time-wasting detours — and Harris is loyal to the president. ▪ The Hill: A Florida state senator endorsed by Trump launched a bid for the House seat held by Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), chosen by the president-elect to be his national security adviser. ▪ The Hill: Republicans are keen to compete next year in blue-state New Jersey's gubernatorial contest. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is term limited, and a deep bench of Democrats and Republicans want his job. The outcome in New Jersey will offer a first look at voters' attitudes amid a second Trump presidency. ▪ The Hill: Ranked-choice voting advocates are regrouping after November's election losses in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Oregon and South Dakota. |
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- Bessent has a $6.7 trillion mountain of worry waiting at Treasury, by Robert Burgess, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion.
- The Senate should leave no judgeship unfilled, by The New York Times editorial board.
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© The Associated Press | Jacquelyn Martin |
And finally … 🍪 As Americans hurtle toward Thanksgiving tryptophan overloads and home chefs toil over phyllo-wrapped mushrooms while occasional cooks open cans of jiggly cranberry relish, we recall some first ladies — and one vice president. In days of yore, society columnists and feature writers heralded (sometimes embellished) culinary skills of president's wives, including their recipes. As history's first female vice president, Kamala Harris's confidence while cooking became a TikTok staple. Before thousands of callers this week frantically dial, email and text the Butterball Turkey Helpline, we thought we'd salute eons of "home economics" and "homemakers," including at the White House. Enjoy the holiday! Kamala Harris's cornbread dressing family recipe. Mamie Eisenhower's million-dollar chocolate fudge. Hillary Clinton's chocolate chip cookies. Laura Bush's Texas cowboy cookies. Rosalynn Carter's strawberry cake. Betty Ford's Thanksgiving double chocolate cookies. Abigail Adams's lemon chiffon pie. Martha Washington's great cake. |
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