Monday, December 23, 2024

Morning Report — Funding fight foretells fraught GOP future

MORNING REPORT

December 23, 2024 | By Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

NEW! Listen and Subscribe:

In today's issue:

▪ Can Johnson keep his gavel?

▪ AOC's uncertain political future

▪ 2024 temperatures defied expectation

▪ U.S. diplomats meet with Syrian rebels

Funding fight foretells fraught GOP future

Congress narrowly avoided a government shutdown over the weekend, but the chaotic lead-up and negotiations paint a picture of what's to come once Republicans take unified control of the government in January.

Last week's days-long roller coaster leaves serious questions about how Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will manage the House GOP's razor-thin majority under President-elect Trump — and whether he can keep his gavel. The intraparty clashes that were on full display during funding negotiations will be even more consequential next year as Johnson aims to push through an ambitious legislative agenda in Trump's first 100 days in office.

Republican frustration with Johnson boiled over last week as he and congressional leadership cycled through various funding plans to respond to Trump's criticism.

"There's zero communication from leadership to the membership. And it's frustrating. And it's something that should change before Jan. 3," Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) said as she entered a House GOP conference meeting Friday. "We need a clear understanding of how we're going to do things next session, because what's happening now is completely unacceptable."

Jan. 3 marks the first day of the 119th Congress, and its first order of business in the House will be electing the Speaker. Assuming all members are present and voting, Johnson can't afford more than one Republican defection on the House floor.

That day, 219 Republicans are expected to take the oath of office, and all 215 Democrats are expected to vote for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) — with Jeffries saying this month that Democrats will not save Johnson from a GOP revolt.

In addition to Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has said he won't vote for Johnson, multiple other Republicans have told The Hill they're skeptical of supporting him.

Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) said Sunday on NewsNation's "The Hill" that Johnson made the government funding battle "way too complicated," arguing that Johnson should have done what Trump wanted from the start.

"We are on the same team as Donald Trump. We're on the same page as Donald Trump," he argued.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: The week the GOP's high hopes collided with reality. Elon Musk's new influence and Trump's impulsive style threw the party into a familiar form of chaos.

▪ The Hill: House Republicans are largely brushing aside Musk's threats to unseat members who supported the initial government funding measure he helped torpedo.  

▪ The Hill: Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) predicted in a Sunday interview that Musk's influence over Trump will end.

Republicans diverged from Trump on one key issue last week: The president-elect's demands to include a two-year debt ceiling suspension in the spending bill didn't make the final deal. Thirty-eight conservative Republicans on Thursday voted against a funding measure with a suspension, arguing they could not agree to such a request without offsetting spending cuts.

The vote marked an unusual moment in Washington after Trump's second White House win; he has largely faced little opposition from his party. Republicans who spoke to The Hill said there were unique reasons for why the debt hike wasn't included in the spending bill. But some also said the GOP is less unified in general now in comparison to Trump's first term — and the razor-tight GOP House majority will also be a problem.

"When I was there, we had bigger margins, but also they weren't that big. We had more of a team," said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), an ex-House member, who said her mentality in the lower chamber was "let's help the team."

"That spirit is gone, unfortunately," she said of the House today.

Democrats, meanwhile, are opening the door to collaborating with Republicans on a tax bill as the GOP faces several obstacles on the road to extending Trump's tax-cut law.

While it will be tough for Democrats to get anything they want in a GOP tax bill, Republican divisions are making some Democrats hopeful about bipartisanship on tax.

"If this were a party that wanted to negotiate with the minority party, and I'm thinking that the margins are so narrow that under ordinary circumstances they would negotiate with us, there are things that we probably could negotiate about," Rep. Gwen Moore (D-Wis.), a Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee, told The Hill.

And Jeffries recently told reporters that there could be certain tax issues on which his caucus and the GOP could unite.

"With respect to certain areas of tax reform … there's some common ground potentially to be found," Jeffries said. 

3 Things to Know Today

Schools spend millions on a safety measure to stop bullets. It doesn't work.
More than 3,100 students died at schools built to crush Native American cultures, a Washington Post analysis found — more than three times as many deaths as the U.S. government documented in its investigation of Native American boarding schools.
You think Trump will be bad for the press? Take a look at these past presidents.

LEADING THE DAY

TRANSITION: On Sunday, Trump delivered a sprawling address in Phoenix that he called a "small preview of the commonsense revolution" his administration will bring. He pledged to close the nation's borders, end federal regulations, lower taxes, prosecute his rivals, "stop woke" and "end the transgender lunacy."

In a 90-minute speech at "AmericaFest," a four-day conference run by the conservative group Turning Point USA, Trump offered a triumphant view of his election victory and promised that a new "golden age in America" had begun.

"We will end the occupation, and Jan. 20 will truly be liberation day in America," Trump said.

Trump's incoming press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump's Day 1 executive orders may tackle Title 42 — a controversial Trump-era policy that allowed for asylum-seekers to be expelled from the country. The pandemic-era policy ended in May 2023, more than a year after the Biden administration first tried to rescind the order.

On Fox News's "Sunday Morning Futures," Leavitt said Trump will "use the power of his pen to deliver on many of the promises he made to the American people on the campaign trail to secure our southern border, to fast-track permits for fracking, for drilling, and to also take executive action to stop some of the transgender insanity that we have seen take over this country."

Pressed by host Maria Bartiromo on what immigration-related executive action Trump plans to take, Leavitt said the transition was "perhaps looking at Title 42. Many of these executive actions are still being considered by our policy teams and also our lawyers."

▪ The Wall Street Journal: America's private prison complex gears up for a Trump deportation bonanza. Some are exploring the controversial practice of detaining unaccompanied minors.

▪ The Hill: Lara Trump, Trump's daughter-in-law and former Republican National Committee co-chair, removed her name from consideration to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

▪ The Washington Post: Press freedom advocates say they fear that the second Trump administration will ramp up pressure on journalists, in keeping with the president-elect's combative rhetoric.

▪ The New York Times: Stephen Miran, Trump's pick for Council of Economic Advisers, has accused the Biden administration of manipulating markets.

▪ The Hill: Why Big Tech is funding Trump's inauguration.

GOP senators seem to be embracing Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, despite his controversial views on vaccines and pro-abortion record. Kennedy was initially thought to have a difficult path to confirmation, writes The Hill's Nathaniel Weixel, but after meeting with some two dozen senators this week, many seemed ready to look past his political baggage. 

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said he had a "productive" conversation with Kennedy and has heard similar sentiments from his colleagues, though he acknowledged there may still be some points of "possible contention."  

"I think [Kennedy's] made progress," Tillis said. "I've heard generally positive comments about just the interaction, but most of the offices also say they have things to follow up with." 

AOC: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is facing an uncertain future after a pivotal setback this week, when she lost her race to lead Democrats on the House Oversight and Accountability Committee. The 74-year-old Rep. Gerry Connolly's (D-Va.) victory sparked new anger in liberals pushing for a generational change in leadership, and some are wondering how Ocasio-Cortez will play her cards next.

The "squad" member's centrist colleagues' promotion of Connolly sent a clear message that Democrats want to suppress left-wing ideology as they look to rebrand the image of a party that has lost considerable power in Washington, write The Hill's Hanna Trudo and Mike Lillis. 

"Some of the younger members need to be willing to potentially take risk for their careers in Congress, in the political establishment, by calling out Democratic process as harmful to the power-building that they say that they desire," said Corryn Freeman, the executive director of Future Coalition, an organization that mobilizes young progressives. "I think she needs to say that out loud."

▪ The New York Times: In a party that has grown less religious, some prominent Democrats say discussing their deepest beliefs can be a way to connect — when it's authentic.

▪ The Washington Post: Clinging to compassion. In deep-red Arizona, "a genuinely good person" tries not to surrender to anger and resentment.

▪ The Dallas Morning News: The son of Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas) confirmed that his mother has "dementia issues" that have kept her away from Congress in recent months. He also said she was living in Traditions Senior Living in Fort Worth, Texas.

WHEN & WHERE

Morning Report's Alexis Simendinger returns after the holidays.
The House will meet Tuesday at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session. The Senate will meet at 9:30 a.m. for a pro forma session.
The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 11 a.m.
Vice President Harris is in Washington, D.C., and has no public schedule.

ZOOM IN

This year is ending with more global temperature records that defy what many climate scientists expected for 2024. Driving this and last year's record warmth is the unsettling possibility that global warming is accelerating and the planet's climate behaving differently than expected. That would mean the climate scenarios used to determine countries' decarbonization goals could be faulty, and warming levels — and greater societal consequences — are likely to arrive sooner than expected.

One way scientists and entrepreneurs are thinking of combating climate change? Stripping carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, for a profit.

The financial world is racing to fund the emerging field of carbon dioxide removal, but the technology, which did not exist until a few years ago, is still unproven at scale. With a small but growing number of companies willing to pay for it, investors are jockeying to be first movers in what they believe will inevitably be a big industry.

Trump's victory set in motion a race against time by President Biden to safeguard his environmental legacy. But his administration's stepped-up pace of climate-related announcements will likely mean little once Trump is inaugurated, mostly thanks to an obscure law that tends to come into play every four years.

The Congressional Review Act allows Congress to kill any regulation issued by a federal agency in the last 60 legislative days with a simple majority vote in the House and Senate and the signature of the president. 

▪ The Washington Post: Biden just set a new climate goal. Trump and other obstacles await.

▪ USA Today: Are we seeing fewer white Christmases due to climate change?

▪ The Hill: Deaths in the United States from cold weather-related causes have been rising, according to a new study. 

ELSEWHERE

SYRIA: The U.S. removed the long-standing $10 million bounty on Syria's de-facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, following a high-level U.S. delegation meeting with the former jihadist. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, one of three U.S. officials at the meeting in Damascus, described the "policy decision" as one aligned with the need to work with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham on "critical issues" such as combating terrorism.

A U.S. official said the meeting with al-Sharaa was "good and productive." Meanwhile, Syria's new rulers have appointed a foreign and defense minister as they seek to build international relations two weeks after Assad's ouster.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: A visual guide to Syria's long struggle for freedom.

▪ The New York Times: Deception and betrayal: Inside the final days of the Assad regime. Assad, who wielded fear and force over Syria for more than two decades, fled the country under the cover of night — and a fake political address.

BBC: "Danger of ISIS resurgence has doubled" — Syria's Kurds warn of the group's comeback.

CEASEFIRE: Talks to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza between Israel and Hamas are 90 percent complete, a senior Palestinian official told the BBC. One of the main sticking points is the continued Israeli military presence in the Philadelphi corridor, a strategically important strip of land in southern Gaza along the border with Egypt.

▪ NBC News: A missile launched from Yemen struck Tel Aviv on Saturday, marking a rare instance of a failed interception over the city.

▪ The Washington Post: The Palestinian Authority, seeking a role in Gaza, takes on West Bank militants.

With a long-promised trip to Africa, Biden became the first president to visit Angola and first since former President Obama to visit the continent. The trip came as the stakes of global influence in Africa rise and the continent becomes an increasingly important part of China's geopolitical arsenal, The Hill's Joanne Haner reports. Kholofelo Kugler, a scholar specializing in African trade and economy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the U.S. has "lost a lot of ground" when it comes to strategic opportunities in Africa.  

"China has far stripped the U.S. in the last few years," she said.

▪ NBC News: The 50-year-old Saudi Arabian doctor accused of killing four women and a 9-year-old boy by driving into a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, faces charges of five counts of murder, and multiple counts of attempted murder and aggravated assault.

▪ Axios: Trump demanded Panamanian authorities either lower fees for U.S. ships to transit the Panama Canal, or return its control to the U.S. Panama's president, Jose Raúl Mulino, on Sunday night rejected Trump's demands.

OPINION

Dear federal workers: Don't quit, by Max Stier, contributor, Politico magazine.
Things are terrible in Europe, and they're only going to get worse, by Anton Jäger and Dries Daniels, guest essayists, The New York Times.

THE CLOSER

And finally … If you're planning on traveling for the holiday season (or have already braved your travel day this weekend), you're not alone: It's beginning to look like another record for holiday travel in the U.S.

According to predictions from AAA, more than 119 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home between Dec. 21 and New Year's Day. That's up from the 116.07 million people last year and up — just barely, at a 0.1 percent increase — over the record number of travelers in 2019, which totaled 119.3 million.

The two weekends on either side of Christmas look to be some of the most crowded times on the road and at airports.

▪ The New York Times: Traveling for Christmas? Here's where the weather may snarl your plans.

▪ NewsNation: Travel tracker: What you should know as you prepare for holiday travel.