By Chris Stirewalt | Friday, May 16 |
By Chris Stirewalt Friday, May 16 |
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© Alex Brandon, Associated Press |
Reality bites Republicans' budget happy talk |
On the menu: Free fallin'; The caves of Rome; Louisiana Senate race gets hot for Cassidy; Omaha sends a warning sign to GOP; Bessent can't boogie Pollsters for The Wall Street Journal asked voters whether they thought there was enough waste, fraud and abuse in federal spending that Washington could balance the budget by eliminating those things. Fifty-three percent said yes. When it comes to just fraud and abuse, there's some serious money to be had — something like $149 billion in the previous fiscal year, according to the Government Accountability Office. The bad news: That adds up to just a little more than 2 percent of the nearly $7 trillion in spending for the same period — not even a tenth of the cuts that Republicans are looking for. So that takes you to "waste," which is a much more subjective concept. One taxpayer's waste is another's vital funding. Is $45 million for a military parade in Washington a wasteful vanity project for the commander in chief or an appropriate way to boost national pride and military recruitment? Do billions in grants to elite universities fund life-saving technologies of the future or just constitute a slush fund for woke indoctrination? Anything can be waste if you disagree with the expenditure in the first place. One place where lots of Americans routinely agree there are scads of wasteful spending is on foreign aid. It wasn't by accident that Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) posse went after foreign aid first. When the Kaiser Family Foundation asked voters this spring to estimate how much of the federal budget went to foreign aid, more than half thought it was at least 10 percent of federal spending, with more than 20 percent maintaining that it was at least 40 percent. The truth is that foreign aid, even before Musk whipped out his chainsaw, was just a little bit more than 1 percent of what Uncle Sam spends: about $72 billion a year. We're on our way to a $2 trillion deficit for the current fiscal year, and if you zeroed out America's least favorite kind of "waste," it wouldn't make a dent. Looking at it that way, it's not surprising that the much-vaunted DOGE cuts, the cuts that congressional Republicans hoped would save them from hard choices, turned out to be a flop. After a lot of high-visibility, noisy action in the opening weeks of President Trump's second term, it became obvious that there's just not enough fat around the edges to deliver meaningful reductions for a government so deeply in debt. It's gotten so bad that Republicans are now talking about raising taxes on the rich to finance increased spending and some targeted tax cuts for the working class and older adults, key parts of the GOP coalition. While soaking the rich is a sharp departure from the GOP's historical commitment to trying to keep taxes as low as possible, it is certainly a hit with voters. Some 63 percent in a recent Pew Research Center poll said they wanted to see top earners taxed at a higher rate. It's popular, but is it profitable? A proposal favored by Trump and some Republicans in Congress for a new tax bracket for those earning more than $1 million a year would bring in some money, for sure: something like $40 billion a year. But that would have to be offset by the harm that would do to the economy and would no doubt be tamped down as rich people found new ways to shield their income from new taxes. Again, it's real money. If you put it all together — new taxes, slashing widely unpopular programs and eliminating fraud and abuse — you could probably trim the deficit by a quarter or so. That's nothing to sneeze at. But it's not going to feed the bulldog. As congressional Republicans start to admit that failure is an option on the president's long-sought "big beautiful bill" they are coming to terms with one of the essential flaws in populism as a method of gaining political power. Demagoguery, left and right, works because it tells voters what they want to hear. It tells them that the reason they aren't getting what they want from government isn't because these things are hard to do, but because other people — bad people — are preventing them from having it. Whether its MAGA or democratic socialism, the core argument is that if the elites from the other side were just taken out of power, then the good things would flow to the decent working folks like milk and honey. Give us power, they say, and we will sweep aside these corrupt impediments to your happiness and prosperity. Unlike those other guys, we'll be tough. Just give us the pitchforks, and we'll get the bad folks out of the way. But that is, of course, hogwash. The government has racked up the debt and deficit it now shoulders precisely because when faced with hard choices, politicians almost always flinch. They say that millionaires and billionaires can finance a generous welfare state or that slashing wasteful spending can balance the budget. Once in power they have to admit that the major drivers of federal spending — entitlement programs, the military and the interest on the debt already incurred — would be so unpopular and so painful to cut that the only answer is to keep borrowing and spending. It's too soon to say whether House Republicans will actually be able to cough up a bill to send to the Senate by Memorial Day, or ever. But one thing is certain: If they do, it will be yet another budget buster that leaves the government trillions deeper in debt and another generation of voters feeling swindled. Ripe pickings for the next round of populist demagoguery. |
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| Net Score: -11.2 points [Average includes: Ipsos/Reuters: 42 percent approve – 53 percent disapprove; NYT/Siena: 42 percent approve – 54 percent disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 42 percent approve – 53 percent disapprove; NewsNation: 44 percent approve – 56 percent disapprove; CBS News: 45 percent approve – 55 percent disapprove] |
AMERICANS CONTINUE TO FEEL LESS SATISFIED WITH THE EXTENT OF THEIR PERSONAL FREEDOMS |
Percentage who say they are satisfied with their freedom to choose how to live their lives: By gender Women: 66 percent Change from 2021: -15 points Men: 77 percent Change from 2021: -5 points By nation U.S.: 72 percent OECD (developed nations) median: 86 percent Global median: 81 percent [Gallup survey of U.S. adults, 2024] |
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Subterranean Rome-sick blues |
Smithsonian Magazine: "'Watch out for that bat behind you,' warned Luca Messina, a civil engineer who moonlights as a speleo-archaeologist with Sotterranei di Roma, Undergrounds of Rome, a local group whose members explore the darkest recesses of the Eternal City. … Chatting cheerfully in a nearby parking lot, we geared up in hard hats and headlamps. … We hiked across empty fields of tall grass and purple flowers, each of us carrying scythe-like implements to cut our way through the underbrush. 'We're only a 20-minute drive from Rome, and it's like the Amazon rainforest,' Messina said, laughing. … With our headlamps lit we clambered, hunched over, for about 80 yards into the pitch darkness, which in Italian is referred to as il oblio, 'oblivion.' The air, which has not circulated for millennia, became stale. At one point, we scrambled over a pile of debris where part of the ceiling had caved in. 'It's very safe,' Messina assured me. 'There has only been one collapse in 2,300 years, so we'd have to be very unlucky to be trapped.'" |
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Geauxing MAGA: Louisiana gov pushing primary challenger to Cassidy: The Associated Press: "President Donald Trump and Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry have discussed U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow challenging U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy in next year's Republican primary, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. The Republican governor's promotion of a new challenger to Cassidy reflects unease within Trump's base about the two-term senator. … Landry, a close Trump ally, spoke last month with the president about Letlow as a potential Senate candidate, according to two people with knowledge of the conversation. … Cassidy already faces one major challenger, Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming, a former congressman. … Still, Cassidy has a clear fundraising advantage, with more than $7.4 million in his campaign account at the end of the first quarter." |
Collins still hinting at a sixth Senate run, but won't make it official: CNN: "Collins, the lone New England Senate Republican, who is at the peak of her influence over 28 years in the chamber, has fended off one Democratic foe after another in hard-fought races to hang on to her seat. And again, her seat is pivotal in the Democrats' uphill climb back to the majority. … Collins, 72, has yet to make a formal announcement that she'll run in what will almost certainly be a bruising battle for a sixth term. And high-profile potential Democratic candidates, like Gov. Janet Mills and Rep. Jared Golden, are weighing their next moves as they await the veteran senator's final decision. … National Republicans believe that Collins — a moderate who chairs the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and sits in the bluest GOP-held seat in the nation — will indeed be on the ballot next November. But if Collins decides against another run, it would transform the race and give Democrats their best chance at flipping a seat in the midterms." |
Michigan Senate primary gets yet another Dem contender: Detroit Free Press: "Former Michigan House Speaker Joe Tate, of Detroit — who has long-standing ties to the city and played football for Michigan State University and in the NFL before becoming a Marine and entering politics — is running as a Democrat for U.S. Senate. Tate's campaign on May 12 confirmed his run for the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, who is stepping down after his second six-year term. … Tate enters an already crowded field of experienced candidates for the Democratic nomination to succeed Peters. U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, of Royal Oak, and former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed, who ran for governor in 2018, have announced runs." |
Pritzker's presidential ambitions face test in Illinois Senate primary: The New York Times: "The Democratic contest for an Illinois Senate seat is shaping up as a test of the political power of Gov. JB Pritzker over a primary field of candidates who enter the race with deep animosity for one another and skepticism about the governor's influence. … Mr. Pritzker's choice, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, created a super PAC in January. … Electing Ms. Stratton could be a boon for Mr. Pritzker as he positions himself ahead of the 2028 presidential contest, in which she could serve as a valuable campaign surrogate. The governor, a billionaire, is no stranger to cutting enormous checks. In 2022, he spent more than $35 million just to influence the Republican primary in his re-election campaign." |
Dem turned independent could complicate Florida gubernatorial race: WFOR: "Two weeks after proclaiming the Democratic Party 'dead' in Florida and switching his registration to NPA [no party affiliation], State Senator Jason Pizzo declared he was running for governor in 2026 as an independent during an interview with CBS News Miami. … He said the needs of most Floridians are not being met by "the rhetoric that the Republicans want to push" or by the Democrats overreacting 'to every little step or statement that the Republicans make.' … The 2026 race is likely to be a wild and contentious one, with Republican Congressman Byron Donalds already securing the endorsement of Donald Trump as First Lady Casey DeSantis is also jockeying to jump into the race. And on the Democratic side, former Republican Congressman David Jolly is also considering a run. On the same day Pizzo switched from Democrat to NPA, Jolly switched from NPA to Democrat." |
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Another warning sign for GOP as Dems flip Omaha mayorship after 12 years out of power —The Downballot |
Dems freeze out Stacey Abrams as she considers third gubernatorial run — The Hill |
Rematch in Phoenix area swing district for Schweikert — KJZZ Phoenix |
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Rep. Maxine Waters: "This is the first time we've met, is that correct?" Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "No ma'am, we actually met one New Year's Eve in the Bahamas." Waters: "Why don't I remember that?" Bessent: "Well, you were much better at the Electric Slide than I was." — An exchange at a House hearing last Wednesday. |
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And Harvard could use the cash these days |
The Guardian: "A Magna Carta wrongly listed as an unofficial copy for nearly 80 years has been confirmed as an original from 1300. The discovery means the document is just one of seven issued … by Edward I that still survive. David Carpenter, a professor of medieval history at King's College London, stumbled on a document labelled as an unofficial copy of Magna Carta from 1327 in Harvard law school library's online collection. … According to the library's accession register, it had bought what it believed to be a copy for $27.50 in 1946. … [Nicholas Vincent, professor of medieval history at the University of East Anglia who authenticated the document] said: 'It's easy to understand why it was mis-catalogued when it was sold … it's a long time ago. Everyone in 1945 was a bit tired. It's worth many, many, many, many times that.'" |
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Write to WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack! |
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Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Nate Moore contributed to this report. |
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