Democrats are feeling increasingly bullish about their prospects for the midterm elections with less than six months remaining before voters head to the polls.
History is on their side, as the party out of power has typically gained seats in Congress in most midterms. But they’re starting to show signs of a chance to flip control of both chambers, which would significantly boost their power to check President Trump in the latter half of his second term.
Still, hurdles remain to breaking the Republican trifecta, especially in the Senate, with the map of available seats favoring the GOP.
Here’s where the contests for control of the House and Senate stand six months before Election Day.
House
The GOP only narrowly held onto its majority in the House in 2024, starting the term with a 220-215 edge. That would only require Democrats to net a few pickups in November to take back control.
And polling widely suggests Democrats are favored to win the majority, even more so as voter frustration grows with the Iran war and rising energy costs.
“You can certainly write a scenario where Republicans do somehow manage to hold on to the House, but I think it's pretty likely that Democrats are going take back the House, based on the stuff we're looking at right now,” said Geoffrey Skelley, the chief elections analyst for Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).
One of the biggest indicators in Democrats’ favor is the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters whether they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in the upcoming election. The party has led on that question for months and currently holds a lead of 5.2 points in the DDHQ national polling average.
Trump’s approval rating, which has been steadily falling over the past two months as the Iran war is locked in a standoff, is also giving Democrats a reason for optimism. The president’s disapproval percentage in the DDHQ average stands at 57.3 percent, the highest of his second term, while his approval is just above 40 percent, near the lowest point since his return to office.
Skelley said where that number stands heading into the election could be key, even with a difference between 40 percent and 45 percent. The segment of voters who only somewhat disapprove of the president, rather than strongly disapprove, could play a crucial role in which party they favor.
“In 2022, Democrats did find a way to do better among that group. The incumbent party usually doesn't,” Skelley said.
Questions also remain about the full implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling last week restricting the Voting Rights Act. Some Republicans are pushing for their states to try to redraw their congressional district lines before their primaries, hoping that a few extra pickup opportunities could prove consequential in the battle for the House.
▪ The Hill: Trump disapproval rating hits new high in poll.
▪ The Hill: Republicans see dysfunction as major liability.
Senate
The upper chamber has always been more of an uphill battle for Democrats this year, but polling suggests they just might have a chance to grab the majority.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must net four seats to take back control.
The election handicapper Cook Political Report currently projects Democrats as being favored to hold all but one of their current seats and pick up one in North Carolina, where Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring.
A currently Democratic-held seat in Michigan, along with seats held by Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Jon Husted (Ohio), are currently rated as toss-ups. If Democrats win all three, they would still need to pick off one more GOP-held seat.
Cook currently considers that seat most likely to be Sen. Dan Sullivan’s (R) in Alaska.
Trump’s poor approval rating, early polling numbers and strong fundraising figures from Democratic candidates have fueled their hopes in these states.
Democrats have also notched some major recruiting wins. That includes former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is running again in Ohio less than two years after his narrow reelection defeat, and former Rep. Mary Peltola, seeking to take on Sullivan in Alaska.
But Skelley warned Democrats may be feeling a bit overly high on their chances, noting they would need to flip states that voted for Trump in 2024 by more than 10 points.
“It's not easy to flip states like that, and now we are in an environment where maybe that's feasible, but again, they have to get two of them, and they also have to make sure they beat Susan Collins and win North Carolina,” he said.
The Maine race to beat Collins was shaken up last week after Gov. Janet Mills (D), a recruit of Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.), dropped out of the race, clearing the way for progressive oyster farmer Graham Platner to face Collins. Democrats are rallying around Platner, but his history of controversial comments online is sure to provide fodder for Republican attacks.
Still, Democrats have cause for optimism.
“This is more of a question now than it was a few months ago,” Skelley said.
▪ NPR: Senate races to watch.
▪ The Hill: Trump endorses Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) in race to succeed Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).
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