A political right that was optimistic and largely unified in the early months of President Trump’s second term is more divided, fractured and anxious — with the future of the post-Trump Republican Party at stake.
Today marks one year here for The Movement, where I cover the influences and debates steering politics on the right in Washington. The vibe shift over that year has been stark.
Ideological fights that were muted during the 2024 primary are heating up, from protectionist economic policies to American intervention in other countries, have alienated some of the president’s former supporters.
The strength of political coalitions in the GOP that helped put Trump in the White House, from Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) to anti-abortion advocates and beyond, are being tested — particularly now that the effort to pass “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which held various groups together last year, is finished.
Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk was assassinated, which initially sparked predictions the right would get even more aggressive in his name; instead, it led to conspiracy theories and attacks from one-time allies.
Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts explained in my launch issue how he is taking the flagship conservative think tank in a more Trump-y direction; by the end of the year, fissures over Tucker Carlson’s interview of antisemitic streamer Nick Fuentes had led to internal turmoil and a mass exodus from the think tank.
I peppered a number of activists, influencers and organizers across the spectrum of the right to help explain some of that shift over the last year.
MAGA VS. ESTABLISHMENT: “The biggest political question is whether MAGA eats the establishment, or the establishment eats MAGA. And I think we're starting to get some answers to that in terms of some of the major decisions as of late — particularly the not-forceful commitment to the deportation agenda,” said Mike Howell, president of the Oversight Project. “We need base activation to avoid a midterm collapse.”
HERITAGE EMBRACES TRANSFORMATION: “At Heritage, our members are beyond optimistic because like us they see a movement becoming more serious and more effective at exactly the right moment,” Heritage’s Kevin Roberts said. “What some describe as infighting is really a movement working through a transition and refocusing on governing, with a concrete agenda on affordability, the administrative state, and national security that reflects where the American people are.”
ANTI-ABORTION FRUSTRATIONS: “The pro-life movement has believed in the Trump administration and invested time and treasure in seeing them succeed in the elections. But we are looking to see a return on investment. So, at this point, I would say the grace period has ended, and people are looking for something to actually happen,” said Kristi Hamrick, chief media strategist and spokesperson for Students for Life Action. Pushing back against those who argue abortion is now a state matter, she said: “There's no more federal policy than chemical abortion pill policy.”
Anti-abortion activists are frustrated that the Trump administration has not reversed Biden-era rules on accessing medications used in abortion by mail and have charged that the Food and Drug Administration’s promised review of the drug mifepristone has been slow-walked.
“Trump is the problem. The president is the problem,” Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal in a story about the pro-life movement's frustrations.
FREE MARKET OPTIMISM: “Broadly, freedom-oriented limited government conservatives are more optimistic about the future than we were a year or so ago,” said Akash Chougule, president of the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity.
“Is there a single issue on which the country has moved more in the direction of the big-government right over the past year? The tariffs are an abject failure," Chougule said, adding that the “big-government right” is shifting their goal posts as they defend such policies. “The Administration’s successes are border security, deregulation and cracking down on DEI; whereas they’ve shifted strategy and personnel around overly aggressive interior enforcement amidst backlash and economic consequences.”
A key indicator that sparked optimism for the free market was turmoil at the Heritage Foundation and Advancing American Freedom, the young think tank founded by former Vice President Pence that poached more than a dozen Heritage staffers at the end of last year.
“The last year has been about conservatives quietly getting to work on a post-Trump future. Trump delivered some genuine wins and some genuine losses, and the task ahead is building a movement rooted in time-tested principles — one that learns from the Trump era without being trapped by it,” said Tim Chapman, president of Advancing American Freedom.
THE ‘NEW RIGHT’ STANDS FIRM: “People consumed by disillusionment and infighting are in no position to shape a more positive future for the movement or the nation, but those of us working to build a New Right conservatism remain excited as ever about the prospects for reclaiming American citizenship and serving the American people well,” said Oren Cass, founder and chief economist of the more economically populist American Compass.
CONSERVATIVE MEDIA FRACTURES: “Conservative media has moved beyond being a mere alternative to legacy outlets; it is now a fully realized, yet fractured, ecosystem. We have rapidly traded a few unified voices for a robust decentralized marketplace of ‘alternatives to the alternatives,’ where the conservative audience has endless personalities to choose from,” said Nathan Brand, a veteran GOP communications adviser who writes the conservative media newsletter The Brand Brief.
NOT TO MENTION: Trump’s foreign policy from the Iran war and beyond has driven one-time “America First” Trump allies — Carlson, former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), and Joe Kent — away from him, as well as dampened his standing with independents he won over in 2024. And MAHA activists are worried that the Republican party won’t deliver on key issues like going after pesticides (more on that further down).
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE: “The future is bright for the right and it's not for the left,” said Matthew Boyle, the Washington Bureau Chief at Breitbart News, who is well-connected with Trump administration officials. “Actual voters,” he said, “are sticking with the president.”
He pointed to CNN data guru Harry Enten reporting last week that the Republican Party is holding onto the 2024 gains it saw with Black voters. (Enten later said that Trump is also “collapsing” with GOP-leaning independents.)
“I do not get the sense that there is some grand division in the coalition that elected President Trump in 2024,” Boyle said.
He said the question “that everyone will be asking for the next generation is: Does President Trump's historic coalition hold together or not?”
“This new Republican Party that President Trump has put together and will hand off to somebody that his eventual successor — probably going to be Vice President Vance —is holding together,” Boyle said. “It's no surprise that people are trying to pick it apart for whatever reason.”
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