Spiegel Stuff: The Hill's Morning Report - Hurricane Dorian wrecks Bahamas, causing at least five deaths, severe flooding | Over 1 million evacuated from US coastline in preparation for Dorian | Congress wonders: What will Trump, McConnell do on guns? | Government funding, impeachment headline Congress to-do list upon return to Washington | With five months until Iowa, 2020 campaign hits new gear as ‘air war’ begins | Cuccinelli makes mark as major player in admin after immigration changes | Despite opening, Trump unlikely to agree on Iran meeting | Boris Johnson threatens mid-October election over Brexit, escalates fight with Parliament

Welcome to The Hill's Morning Report. Happy Tuesday as the September workweek! Our newsletter gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch. Al Weaver is holding down the fort for the week while Alexis Simendinger is on vacation. Find us @asimendinger and @alweaver22 on Twitter and CLICK HERE to subscribe!

Hurricane Dorian continued to slam the Bahamas early Tuesday morning as it made its slow-moving crawl north along the Atlantic and threatened to affect the U.S. coastline late Tuesday morning after days of devastation on the Bahamanian islands, leaving at least five dead and severely flooding the area.

As of early Tuesday, Dorian's top sustained winds had fallen to 120 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane only hours after it was considered at Category 5 storm. However, it had not moved much in nearly 24 hours. According to The Associated Press, it was centered only 25 miles northeast of Freeport — almost the same distance from the Bahamanian city as it was 20 hours prior, with winds extending out 45 mph in some directions.

"Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter," the National Hurricane Center said in their update at 5 a.m. "Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds."

The Center added that Dorian's current path would take it "dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday."

Since making landfall, Hurricane Dorian has inflicted major damage on the Bahamas, with a vast majority of the damage hitting the Abaco Islands in the northern Bahamas. According to reports, the islands were hit with so much wind and water that authorities called on residents to find floatation devices and hammer their way out of their attics if needed.

The total extent of the devastation on the islands will not be known until the storm passes entirely. However, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, as many as 13,000 homes in the Bahamas may have been destroyed or severely damaged (Reuters)

"We are in the midst of a historic tragedy," Bahamas Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said of the five deaths, adding that the devastation the islands have endured is "unprecedented and extensive."

As of Monday evening, Dorian had been affecting the Bahamas for roughly 36 hours, moving only 70 miles in a 24 hour period.

As the Miami Herald wrote Monday evening:

"Forecasters predict Dorian will turn in the next day or so near Palm Beach County and weaken as it travels up the coast, with about an 80 mile buffer between the eye wall and the packed shore. The storm has hurricane force winds extending 45 miles in either direction from the center, with tropical storm force winds stretching 150 miles each way.

"'It is still possible for the hurricane to deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast,' the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory. 'Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track. In addition, Dorian's wind field is predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer to the east coast of Florida even if the track does change.'"

The U.S. prepared for the storm in recent days by evacuating over a million people from the coastlines in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

In Florida, residents from parts of nine counties were evacuated, including from Duval County, home to Jacksonville, and Palm Beach County, the home of Mar-a-lago. In South Carolina, a mandatory evacuation of the entire coastline took hold on Monday evening. The evacuation covers about 830,000 individuals. In Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp (R) ordered evacuations in six coastal counties, including 150,000 residents of Savannah (Reuters).

It has also caused some major U.S. airports to close in the area. Orlando International Airport announced it would halt all commercial flights starting at 2 a.m. on Tuesday.

Additionally, Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) announced a state of emergency as the storm is lined up to affect Virginia's southeastern coastline by Thursday.

LEADING THE DAY

CONGRESS: After more than a month away, Congress is readying its return to Washington next week to continue discussions about potential gun violence legislation in the aftermath of three mass shootings — two in Texas, one in Ohio — since lawmakers bolted town.

As Mike Lillis and Scott Wong report, while lawmakers on both sides are talking about what could possibly be done, much of the ballgame comes down to what President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will support, with Democrats skeptical at best and pessimistic at worst over how the pair will proceed in the coming weeks.

"I don't have any confidence that the Senate will do anything remotely related to guns," House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) said in an interview. "They are a wholly owned subsidiary of the NRA."

In the past, Trump has indicated his support for expanding background checks and other gun control measures, before backing off entirely shortly thereafter. Since the shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio, Trump has said that background checks need to be looked at, which he has also discussed with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) in an opening round of talks.

As for McConnell, who is up for reelection in 2020, he has a long history of opposing more restrictive gun legislation, although he indicated he would be open to potential bills when Congress reconvenes next week, including on "red flag" legislation.

Adding to the argument for gun control advocates is the latest mass shooting in West Texas where seven were killed and 25 were injured after a gunman went on a rampage in Odessa and Midland. However, speaking at the Federal Emergency Management Agency's headquarters, Trump once again backtracked on background checks, saying the main issue remains mental illness.

The Wall Street Journal: As Texas deals with recent violence, looser gun laws in state take effect.

The Washington Post: Democrats press Trump, GOP to tighten gun controls after Odessa mass shooting.

The Wall Street Journal: As 2020 race intensifies, Democrats step up offensive against Mitch McConnell.

Elsewhere, Congress has myriad issues to deal with when they return outside of guns, as Jordain Carney previews. Among the big topics to watch over the coming weeks is government funding. Congress has until Oct. 1 to fund the government or punt the fight into fiscal 2020 with a short-term spending measure that would temporarily extend current spending levels, giving lawmakers just 13 working days to avoid a second funding lapse this year.

The path to funding the government for the next fiscal year without needing a continuing resolution is tough given that the Senate did not pass any funding bills due to talks toward a two-year budget deal that was struck in July.

Another issue to watch is impeachment. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) is set to continue his fight into the fall with the president, including a new round of subpoenas for former administration and campaign officials to get testimony.

As of Monday night, 132 lawmakers support opening an impeachment inquiry, with 20 saying Trump should be straight-up impeached. Some Democrats hope the new round of subpoenas and possible testimony will boost the pro-impeachment crowd.

Democrats in swing districts that pushed the party into the majority in November are still holding out their support for impeachment of any kind. As Cristina Marcos reports, only 13 of the 55 Democrats on the House GOP campaign arm's 2020 target list publicly back an impeachment inquiry. Additionally, of the 31 House Democrats in districts carried by President Trump in 2016, only two support an inquiry: Reps. Chris Pappas (N.H.) and Lauren Underwood (Ill.).

In recent weeks, Impeachment advocates have been pressing Democratic Reps. Conor Lamb (Pa.), Josh Gottheimer (N.J.), Andy Kim (N.J.), Colin Allred (Texas), Mikie Sherrill (N.J.) and others representing swing districts at events back home, but so far none of them have come out in favor of impeachment, giving Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) leverage as she continues to make her case against impeachment.

The Washington Post: Congressional Democrats plan to launch inquiry into Trump's alleged role in scheme to silence affair accusations.

****

POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS: With Labor Day in the rearview mirror, Monday marked exactly five months until the Iowa caucuses and kicked off a new season in the push for the Democratic presidential nomination.

As Niall Stanage writes, Democrats will hold their third debate on Sept. 12 in Houston, but the post-Labor Day period is expected to bring more noise to the airwaves in early states as candidates begin buying airtime in a push to get their message out. Only two candidates — former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) — have run TV ads in Iowa, with more likely to follow suit in the coming weeks.

The increase of TV ads comes at a time when voters become more focused on the race as it heats up in earnest. Additionally, the field has already started to winnow, as four campaigns closed up shop in the final weeks of August.

"The field is about where I would have expected it to be. It has sifted itself out," said Karen Finney, a Democratic operative who served as a senior spokeswoman for Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign. She is unaffiliated with any candidate this cycle.

Another major question centers around Biden, who has shown himself to be more durable than some anticipated in the race, and how he campaigns in the coming weeks and months. Since his campaign launch in late April, Biden's poll numbers have remained relatively static, sitting around 30 percent nationally and holding a double digit lead over his closest competitor. That has left Democrats wondering how to knock him off his perch, especially as his repeated gaffes have hardly had any effect.

As The Washington Post's Michael Scherer writes:

"That resilience has created a challenge for many of the former vice president's rivals as the summer comes to a close. Their routes to the nomination depend on winning over current Biden supporters, but his staying power has yet to offer a lasting opportunity to chip away.

"In response, top advisers to many of his rivals have counseled that the only path forward they see is to continue to cast their candidates as younger, more transformative or more energetic change agents, figure out how to maintain their spot on the debate stage, and hope that the mercurial history of Iowa and New Hampshire voters repeats itself, torpedoing Biden's bid as they have not."

Mark Leibovich, The New York Times: Does Joe Biden want to be doing this?

Gerald F. Seib, The Wall Street Journal: Democrats can't afford to leave moderates behind.

The New York Times: 2020 Democrats demand gun control, but differ on tactics.

> Climate change: With Washington Gov. Jay Inslee dropping his bid for the Democratic presidential nod, 2020 contenders are readying to make their pitch as the climate change candidate. Candidates will have the chance to fight for Inslee's former mantle on Wednesday during a seven-hour town hall hosted by CNN, as Miranda Green and Rebecca Beitsch note.

"There is definitely now an opening with Inslee not in the race anymore for someone to really step up and kind of be the loudest voice on climate," said Craig Auster of the League of Conservation voters. "What we want to see is plans that match what the science is telling us needs to happen, in terms of the pace and scale."

The Hill: Ethanol fight divides key groups in Trump's base.

McClatchy: "Flip the switch:" Stuck in polls, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg plans to beef up campaign staff.

The Wall Street Journal: Democrats labor to stem flow of union voters to Trump.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: He's only been on the job for three months and hasn't been confirmed by the Senate, but Ken Cuccinelli has quickly become one of the main players in the Trump administration, particularly as he becomes the point person for its immigration agenda since taking over as acting director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).

Cuccinelli, who previously served as Virginia attorney general and lost a gubernatorial bid in 2013, has been at the forefront of the administration's immigration efforts as USCIS rolled out three high profile policies in August, each of which clamped down on certain benefits for those born abroad and sparked controversy.

USCIS ended its deferred action program that prevented immigrants from being deported while they or their relatives received critical medical treatment, with the agency noting that it receives about 1,000 deferred action requests every year. In mid-August, the administration announced its public charge rule, which will make it more difficult for an immigrant to obtain a green card if they rely on social safety net programs. Most recently, USCIS briefly caused a stir last week when it announced changes to how Americans stationed overseas can transmit citizenship to their children (The Hill).

> Iran: Despite the door opening momentarily toward diplomacy with the Iranians, supporters and detractors of taking the diplomatic approach believe it is unlikely that Trump will sit down with Tehran as tensions remain high between the two nations.

French President Emmanuel Macron tried to nudge Trump toward meeting with Iran and seemed to dial down the tension between the two sides, with Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani both saying they'd be willing to talk. Both, however, backtracked shortly thereafter, with Trump mocking Iran days later over a failed satellite launch.

However, some still are holding out hope the two sides can de-escalate tensions in the near future. Macron indicated at the Group of Seven meeting last week that he hoped the two sides would meet "in the next few weeks," likely at the looming United Nations General Assembly in September. However, some experts believe a meeting this soon would be a mistake (The Hill).

"High-level summit diplomacy for its own sake is definitely a bad idea, and it plays into Iran's strategy of incentivizing premature diplomacy, and that diplomacy only rewards Iran for coming to the table as opposed to rewarding Iran for a genuine change in behavior," said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "And if the administration does that, again, it would be replicating the same exact mistake of the previous administration."

OPINION

Trump has done nothing to win back the voters who deserted him, by Michael Gerson, columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/2luMJnw

No one cares about Joe Biden's gaffes except media and politicos, by former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D), opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/2k0wzC8

WHERE AND WHEN

📺 Hill.TV's "Rising" at 9 a.m. ET features Holly Shulman, spokeswoman for the New Hampshire Democratic Party and former New Hampshire communications director with Obama for America, to discuss weekend campaign stops in the by Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and the upcoming New Hampshire Democratic convention; Belén Sisa, the Latino press secretary with Sanders's campaign, to talk about Sanders and the 2020 Latino vote; and Kyle Kulinski, host of "The Kyle Kulinski Show," to react to the news of the day. Find Hill.TV programming at http://thehill.com/hilltv or on YouTube at 10 a.m.

The House and Senate return to Washington on Sept. 9.

The president meets with Secretary of Defense Mark Esper at 3:30 p.m.

Vice President Pence will have lunch with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar and Dr. Michael Barrett in Dublin at 11:55 a.m. local time. Pence and Varadkar will hold a bilateral meeting at 1 p.m., before delivering joint remarks at 1:45 p.m. Pence will participate in a roundtable with U.S.-Ireland business leaders at 2:30 p.m., and depart Dublin for Shannon, Ireland, at 4:45 p.m.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is in Brussels for meetings with senior European leaders. He will meet with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at 7:30 a.m. local time, Belgian Prime Minister and European Council President-elect Charles Michel at 8:35 a.m., European Parliament President David Sassoli at 9:50 a.m., and acting Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Borrell at 4:00 p.m.

White House senior adviser Ivanka Trump travels to Colombia, Argentina and Paraguay today through Sept. 6 to promote the economic empowerment of women in developing countries (The Associated Press).

ELSEWHERE

➔ California boat fire: At least 25 individuals are dead and 9 remain missing after a fire engulfed and sank a boat near an island off the Southern California coast early Monday. According to Coast Guard Lt. Cmdr. Matthew Kroll, five others have been found but not recovered due to unsafe conditions under the boat, and that they will continue to search for those who are not accounted for. "You couldn't ask for a worse situation," Santa Barbara County Sheriff Bill Brown said at a news conference on Monday. (The Associated Press).

➔ State Watch: Lorena Gonzalez, 47, a former labor organizer who represents parts of San Diego in the California Assembly, is the driving force behind a bill that would force companies such as Uber and Lyft to treat app-based workers as employees, setting off a battle that could make its way to the voting booth next year. According to policy and economic analysts, The proposal could cost some tech companies billions of dollars in benefits and salaries they would have to begin paying as the workers are considered independent contractors (The Hill).

➔ Brexit: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that he is planning for a general election on Oct. 14 if he loses a crucial vote over a no-deal Brexit in Parliament this week. His warning came as he battles with lawmakers who are pushing legislation to delay the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union until Jan. 31 unless he strikes a deal with them by mid-October. Johnson's remarks came in a prepared statement outside No. 10 Downing St., in which he called on conservative members of Parliament to not tie his hands in negotiations, adding that the U.K. will be leaving with or without a deal on Oct. 31 (Bloomberg).

And finally … a high-school girl's work to bring a new bingo machine to a retirement home for veterans in Washington, D.C., seems to have paid off.

Sarah Barclay Kershner Nordlinger, a junior at Washington-Liberty High School and a resident of Arlington, Va., started a GoFundMe to raise $8,000 to purchase a new bingo machine for the Armed Forces Retirement Home, and buy soil and tools to allow residents to tend to their gardens. The retirement center houses about 280 veterans between the ages of 60 and 100.

When the story was highlighted in The Washington Post on Aug. 27, Nordlinger had raised roughly $1,700. Since the story ran, she has raised nearly $10,000, bringing her total to $11,317 as of Monday evening. Bravo to Sarah!

The Morning Report is created by journalists Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver. We want to hear from you! Email: asimendinger@thehill.com and aweaver@thehill.com. We invite you to share The Hill's reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE!