Spiegel Stuff: The Hill’s Campaign Report: Amash moves toward Libertarian presidential bid

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.

We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching today on the campaign trail.

LEADING THE DAY:

Rep. Justin Amash (I-Mich.) is moving closer to a third-party run for president. The congressman announced over Twitter that he’s exploring a run for the Libertarian Party’s nomination.

Amash has been a consistent critic of President Trump, and he was the first Republican member of Congress to support impeachment proceedings against him last year.

Shortly after he announced his support for impeachment, Amash left the GOP and registered as an Independent. If he were to register now as a Libertarian, he would become the first-ever Libertarian member of Congress.

Libertarians are ecstatic, and they believe that Amash gives them their best shot at relevancy in 2020.

“A huge slice of the electorate is winnable for Amash: voters that reject both a demographic death-spiraling GOP Trump cult and a Democratic Party caving into strident, far left demands," said John Vaught LeBeaume, a veteran of former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson’s Libertarian Party presidential run.

"But to do that, Amash needs to welcome in a diverse, flexible coalition of Americans who value both the social and economic freedoms that both major parties seem bent on destroying," he added. "No purity tests. Americans are exhausted of all that.”

But every cycle starts out with high hopes for third party candidates who usually fade into the background by Election Day.

The first order of business for the Libertarian Party is making the debate stage, which would require him to be polling at 15 percent nationally.

In 2016, Johnson reached around the 9 percent national support mark, but otherwise was never a threat to be on the debate stage. The Johnson-Bill Weld Libertarian ticket earned 4.5 million votes, tripling the party’s previous record. Johnson received 9.3 percent of the vote in his home state of New Mexico.

Could Amash have a similar impact on Michigan, which figures to be one of the most hotly contests battlegrounds in 2020?

No one seems to know who Amash’s presence hurts more.

There is a case to be made that Amash, a conservative, would pull more voters from the right who are tired of Trump.

But some Democrats are worried that Amash will draw from former Vice President Joe Biden.

The argument is that Republicans who are fed up with Trump won’t vote for him anyway, but might vote for Biden if they don’t have a conservative alternative. Now they, have the conservative alternative in Amash.

— Jonathan Easley

READ MORE:

Tal Axelrod: Amash launches exploratory committee for presidential run.

FROM THE TRAIL:

A split screen is forming between the Democratic and Republican national conventions this summer, The Hill’s Amie Parnes and Jonathan report. Democrats have already delayed their convention by a month amid concerns over the coronavirus pandemic. And some in the party remain skeptical that an in-person convention is still possible, suggesting that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) may have to move the gathering online. Republicans, meanwhile, say it’s “full steam ahead” for their convention in Charlotte, N.C., in August.

Biden scored an easy win in Ohio’s Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday, finishing with more than 72 percent of the vote, Tal Reports. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who suspended his campaign earlier this month but will still appear on the ballot in the remaining primary states, placed second with less than 17 percent of the vote.

The decision to cancel New York’s June presidential primary is sparking a furor among progressives, who argue that the move denies their wing of the Democratic Party the chance to voice their preference and amass delegates ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August, The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports.

Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), the highest-ranking black member of Congress and a prominent supporter of Biden, said on Wednesday that it’s “not a must” for the former vice president to choose a black woman as his running mate, Tal reports. “I think having a woman on the ticket is a must,” Clyburn said in an interview with NBC News. “I’m among those who feel that it would be great for him to select a woman of color. But that is not a must.”

PERSPECTIVES:

Scott Goodstein: “How Democrats can help Biden make the sale.”

J.T. Young: “Ugly duckling presidents and black swan economics.”

Albert Hunt: “Nervous Democrats are sweating the small stuff.”

FROM CONGRESS & THE STATES:

Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) fended off a primary challenge in Ohio’s 3rd congressional district on Tuesday, defeating liberal attorney Morgan Harper, whose bid for the seat was heavily funded by progressive outside groups, Tal reports.

Democrat Kweisi Mfume won the special election on Tuesday to replace the late Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) in the House, Tal reports. Mfume, who calls himself “a progressive moderate,” held the seat for five terms before leaving in 1996 to become the CEO of the NAACP.

Desiree Tims, an activist and former aide to Sen. Sherod Brown (D-Ohio), won the Democratic primary to represent Ohio’s 10th District on Tuesday, setting her up for a general election showdown against longtime Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), The Hill’s Aris Folley reports.

Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang is suing the New York State Board of Elections over its decision to cancel the state’s June 23 primary because of the coronavirus pandemic, The Hill’s Justine Coleman reports. Yang suspended his campaign in February. But the lawsuit argues that he still met the requirements to remain on the ballot in New York and the decision to cancel the primary “denies voters due process and denies voters the right to vote, and therefore must be invalidated removing the authority for the Defendant to take the actions complained of herein.”

MONEY WATCH:

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) booked more than $30 million in fall advertisements across four states, as it looks to expand its electoral map ahead of the November elections, The Hill’s Max Greenwood reports.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is launching a five-figure digital ad buy touting his efforts to respond to the coronavirus pandemic, his campaign announced on Wednesday. The North Carolina Republican is one of the party’s most vulnerable incumbents facing reelection in November. Here’s a look at his latest ad spot.

POLL WATCH:

ECONOMIST/YOUGOV – NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL

Biden: 47 percent (-1)

Trump: 41 percent (-1)

EMERSON COLLEGE – NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL

Biden: 48 percent (-5)

Trump: 42 percent (-5)

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING – TEXAS PRESIDENTIAL

Biden: 47 percent

Trump: 46 percent

MARK YOUR CALENDARS:

(Keep in mind these dates could change because of COVID-19.)