Campaign Report — Fetterman and Oz face off tonight

View Online    CAMPAIGN REPORT CAMPAIGN REPORT   Fetterman and Oz face off tonight ©Associated Press-Patrick Semansky/Associated Press-Laurence Kesterton  Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday leading up to November's election.      Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood, Julia Manchester, and Caroline Vakil.  Someone forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here. What we're watching for in Pennsylvania   © AP Photo/Patrick Semansky The story of the 2022 Senate race in Pennsylvania has so far been defined by ups and downs for both parties.   After narrowly winning the GOP primary in May, celebrity physician Mehmet Oz struggled to get his general election campaign off the ground, all the while facing relentless taunts from his Democratic rival John Fetterman's campaign. But Fetterman has faced challenges of his own. He's faced questions about his health and fitness to serve in public office ever since he suffered a stroke earlier this year, and recent polling shows his once-yawning lead evaporating.   With that said, there's little doubt that the Tuesday night debate will carry particularly high stakes for both candidates. Here's what we're watching for:   Fetterman's health: Fetterman has repeatedly stumbled over his words during public appearances and interviews ever since his stroke in May, and it's widely known that he uses a closed captioning system to conduct interviews with reporters. (His campaign says it's to make up for auditory processing issues but isn't indicative of any cognitive problems).   Still, political observers are watching carefully to see how Fetterman performs in the debate. If everything goes off without a hitch, it could help assuage concerns about his health. But any gaffe or perceived struggle could pave the way for more questions about his fitness to serve in the Senate.   Of course, there's also the question of how Oz approaches Fetterman's health. Republicans are eager to put Fetterman on the spot; they also say that Oz will need to show compassion for the Pennsylvania lieutenant governor, while still slamming his record in office.   Oz's messaging: Despite his early struggles in the race, Oz has closed the gap in recent weeks by homing in on the economy and relentlessly criticizing Fetterman as being soft on crime. And to be sure, it's a strategy that has worked for Republican candidates in plenty of other hotly contested races. Those issues – particularly crime – are almost certain to come up in tonight's debate, and it'll be worth watching how well Oz delivers on his talking points, as well as how Fetterman responds.   The abortion fight: After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade over the summer, Democrats seized on the ruling and Republican threats to curb abortion rights as the central theme of their midterm strategy. And Fetterman is no exception. He's repeatedly hammered Oz as an anti-abortion extremist and has criticized him for supporting a 15-week national ban on the procedure introduced by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).   Of course, there are signs that the potency of that argument has weakened in recent weeks, prompting calls by some Democrats for candidates to focus more on kitchen-table issues like inflation and health care. And recent polling shows that voters are more concerned about the economy than reproductive rights. Whether Fetterman's debate performance reflects those concerns remains an open question. COUNTDOWN 14 Days until the 2022 midterm elections Showdown in the Sunshine State  Democrats have been thirsting to take on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis face-to-face for years, so the debate between him and former Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) on Monday night was always expected to be a heated one. And indeed, it delivered on that expectation. Here are a few takeaways from the showdown:    Crist came out swinging: With polls showing DeSantis with a relatively comfortable lead in the race, Crist needed to do everything in his power to put the Florida governor on the spot. He used the debate to hammer DeSantis on everything from his focus on culture war issues and so-called "wokeness" to his rumored presidential ambitions, repeatedly pressing him to say whether he plans to serve out another full, four-year term in the governor's mansion if he wins reelection next month.   Notably, DeSantis repeatedly dodged the issue, refusing to say anything of his political aspirations. Instead, he insisted that, for now at least, he is focused only on beating Crist in November: "I just want to make things very, very clear: the only worn-out, old donkey I'm looking to put out to pasture is Charlie Crist."   DeSantis played his greatest hits: The Florida governor has often ignored Crist on the campaign trail, choosing to focus his criticism instead on President Biden. The Monday night debate was no exception. He blamed Biden for bringing about the highest inflation in decades, and cast Democrats as extremists on everything from LGBTQ rights to abortion rights. And he made clear early on that Crist was part of that alleged problem. "Charlie Crist has voted with Joe Biden 100 percent of the time," he said.   Don't expect things to change much: With Election Day just two weeks away, Crist needed a standout performance or a big moment to help close his polling gap with DeSantis. And while he held his own against the bombastic Florida governor, the debate doesn't seem likely to drastically reshape the contours of the race. Florida has shifted to the right in recent years, DeSantis's approval rating is above water and Democrats are facing a tough political landscape in general. And at the end of the day, the debate just doesn't appear to be enough for Crist to overcome those challenges. OBAMA'S BACK IN ACTION Former President Barack Obama is coming off the sidelines in the final weeks before Election Day.   He's cut a series of ads for Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates in states like Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Florida. He's unveiled a slate of endorsements, coming out on Tuesday in support of Cheri Beasley, the Democratic Senate nominee in North Carolina. And in the coming days, he's set to hit the campaign trail for Democratic candidates in some of the most competitive battleground states.   On Oct. 28, Obama will head to Georgia to campaign for Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) among other Democrats, and a day later he'll be in Michigan and Wisconsin. On Nov. 1, he'll travel to Nevada, where Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) is facing a tough challenge from Republican Adam Laxalt.   A few days later, on Nov. 5, Obama will campaign for John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominees for Senate and governor in Pennsylvania.   The flurry of campaign activity by Obama is welcome news to many Democrats, who have long wondered when he would take a more active role in the 2022 midterm elections. Despite leaving the White House nearly six years ago, Obama remains perhaps the most popular Democrat in the country, and party leaders see him as a powerful surrogate for their candidates in a tough political landscape.    POLL WATCH A nailbiter in Pennsylvania: The race between Fetterman and Oz in Pennsylvania is only getting closer in the final weeks before voters choose their next senator. A CBS News/YouGov poll released on Tuesday found Fetterman with only a 2-point lead over Oz. That puts the race in a statistical tie, given the survey's 4.1-point margin of error. More on that here.   Closing in: A new poll from Emerson College shows Sen. Maggie Hassan's (D-N.H.) once yawning lead over her Republican rival Don Bolduc shrinking to just 3 points. The same poll conducted last month gave the incumbent Democrat an 11-point edge over Bolduc. Hassan's shrinking lead tracks with polling out of other states that show Republicans gaining on Democrats in some of the nation's most competitive Senate contests.  AD WATCH The GOP and Democratic House campaign arms are upping their ad buys in New York's 17th District amid signs that the race between Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) and Republican Mike Lawler is reaching a fever pitch.   The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is pumping an extra $605,000 into the race for a new ad hammering Lawler as an extremist and linking him to the GOP's most controversial figures, a spokesperson for the group told The Hill.   And not to be outdone, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is upping its existing ad buy in the district by $867,000, according to a person familiar with the spending. All told, the NRCC has so far dropped nearly $1.8 million on the contest.    That's it for today. 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