The Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by Meta — What Thursday’s economic data means for recession chances

View Online  12:30 REPORT PRESENTED BY META TALK OF THE MORNING I'm always looking to celebrate any bit of good news: ©  Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon After six months of steady declines, the U.S. economy has rebounded with a 2.6 percent growth rate in the third quarter.     Details: "U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at annualized rate of 2.6 between July and September, up from declines of 1.6 percent in the second quarter and 0.6 percent in third quarter of 2022, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday."    What economists had expected: A growth rate of 2.3 percent    It's not all good news, though: "Even though the growth numbers suggest an economy growing relatively strong, there were warnings signs within the report about a slowdown."     More on what this means, via The Hill's Sylvan Lane ➤  REACTIONS: From President Biden: "For months, doomsayers have been arguing that the US economy is in a recession and Congressional Republicans have been rooting for a downturn. But today we got further evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward." Read Biden's full statement    Politico's Ben White has a more pessimistic reaction: "Don't be fooled by 2.6% Q3 GDP. I mean, great, better than negative. But strip out volatile trade/inventories and you get 0.1% real final sales to private domestic purchasers. Conditions for recession remain ripe as Fed hikes continue and impact spreads." White's full tweets on the news    From Market Watch: "U.S. economy grows 2.6% in the third quarter — but recession worries aren't going away" ➤  MEANWHILE — MORTGAGE RATES HIT A 20-YEAR HIGH: "Mortgage rates topped 7 percent this week, the highest level in 20 years — and the latest sign that the Federal Reserve's aggressive moves to slow the broader economy are hitting the housing market hard already." Full story from The Washington Post's Rachel Siegel and Kathy Orton  It's Thursday. I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. Content from our sponsor: Meta Future surgeons will get hands-on practice in the metaverse. Surgeons will engage in countless hours of additional low-risk practice in the metaverse.  The impact: patients undergoing complex care will know their doctors are as prepared as possible.  The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real.  See how Meta is helping build the metaverse.  🔔 Happening Friday They hopped off the plane at PHL with a dream and some talking points: ©  The Office President Biden and Vice President Harris are making a rare campaign trail appearance together on Friday in Philadelphia to campaign for Democratic Senate hopeful John Fetterman following his debate performance that has worried operatives.    For context on the rarity of this joint appearance: "The last time Biden and Harris shared a stage outside of the White House together was the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's Phoenix Awards in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 1. But the two haven't appeared together for an event outside of D.C since a January event in Atlanta."   ➤  'WHITE HOUSE PIVOTS TO CLOSING ARGUMENT ON ECONOMY': From The Hill's Brett Samuels and Alex Gangitano  🗳 On the campaign trail Lots of nerves in both parties: "The battle for the Senate majority is going down to the wire as a series of races across the country tighten in the days before the election, a process that is alternatively giving hope while also panicking partisans in both parties."     For example in Wisconsin: "Democrats have their eyes on Wisconsin, where a new poll from CNN found Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) clinging to just a 1-point lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes."    And in Iowa: "In Iowa, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) has been seen as a heavy favorite to win an eighth term. But Democrats are starting to believe Mike Franken could have a chance at an upset."    More Senate races that are getting extremely close, via The Hill's Al Weave ➤  BTW, COOK POLITICAL REPORT SHIFTED ARIZONA TO A 'TOSS UP':  It had been in the "lean Democrat" category before Thursday. Details and reasoning  ➤  OH, GOOD. ANOTHER SUPPLY CHAIN SHORTAGE TO WORRY ABOUT: A shortage of the paper used to make ballots could impact Election Day, according to ABC News's Nicole Moeder, Devin Dwyer and Isabella Meneses.    What we know: "The 2022 election cycle will use an estimated 30 million pounds of paper, according to industry experts. Soaring demand and a shortage of manufacturers during the pandemic have pinched national stockpiles, leaving little room for error." The full story  👟 In other news Ye showed up at Skechers unannounced:  Rapper and designer Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, showed up at the Skechers headquarters unannounced on Wednesday, a day after being dropped by Adidas over antisemitic remarks.     What happened when he showed up?: Executives escorted Ye out of the building.    Statement from Skechers: "Skechers is not considering and has no intention of working with West. We condemn his recent divisive remarks and do not tolerate antisemitism or any other form of hate speech. The Company would like to again stress that West showed up unannounced and uninvited to Skechers corporate offices."    Full story from CNBC's Mike Calia    ^ Side note: I learned today that it is spelled "Skechers," not "Sketchers," and the revelation is really irking me.   ➤  ^ PLUS, FORBES REMOVED YE FROM BILLIONAIRE STATUS: "On Tuesday, Forbes, one of the leading trackers of wealth among the world's financial elites, declared it had dropped Ye from its list of billionaires. It estimated the Adidas deal accounted for $1.5 billion of his net worth, but Forbes now estimates it at a mere $400 million." Where that $400 million comes from, from CNN Business's Chris Isidore.  ➤  HERE'S A LIST OF COMPANIES THAT HAVE CUT TIES WITH YE:  Including Gap, Balenciaga and TJ Maxx. The full list  🦠 Latest with COVID BY THE NUMBERS Cases to date: 97 million  Death toll: 1,065,152  Current hospitalizations: 20,185  Shots administered: 632 million Fully vaccinated: 68.2 percent CDC data here. Content from our sponsor: Meta Future surgeons will get hands-on practice in the metaverse. Surgeons will engage in countless hours of additional low-risk practice in the metaverse.  The impact: patients undergoing complex care will know their doctors are as prepared as possible.  The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real.  See how Meta is helping build the metaverse.  🐥 Notable tweets Elon is at Twitter HQ: Billionaire businessman Elon Musk tweeted a video on Wednesday of him walking into Twitter's headquarters. Watch    Why this is significant: Musk's deadline to buy Twitter is Friday. If he does not buy Twitter by the deadline set by a Delaware judge, the matter could go to trial. Tech Crunch explains why If anyone needs me this afternoon, I'll be deeply staring into the abyss pondering the universe: CBS News tweeted, "Watch the moment a meteor glowed and lit up the sky right before it slammed into Earth's atmosphere and broke apart above Nova Scotia, Canada, on Friday." Watch  ⏱ On tap The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in New York. Vice President Harris is in Washington, D.C., with no public events scheduled.   9 a.m.: Biden received his daily briefing.  12:25 p.m.: Biden leaves for Syracuse, N.Y.  5:15 p.m.: Biden leaves for New Castle, Del.    All times Eastern. 📺 What to watch 1:15 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre gaggles with reporters aboard Air Force One. Livestream  3:30 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks on Micron's plan to invest in CHIPS manufacturing in upstate New York. Livestream  The Hill's Diversity, Equity & Inclusion Summit, Thursday, Oct. 27 at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT   Diversity, equity and inclusion are no longer just feel-good initiatives. They are critical to an organization's success. Many in the public and private sectors have attempted to spotlight the diversity of our nation and support a culture of inclusion. What more can be done to break down barriers to equity and achieve true inclusion? Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.), EEOC Chair Charlotte Burrows, OneTen Health CEO Maurice Jones, Hinge Health CEO Dan Perez, ZipRecruiter's Julia Pollak and more join The Hill to discuss steps to meaningful change and a more inclusive society. RSVP today. 🥔 In lighter news Today is National Potato Day. ©  Super Simple And to leave you feeling dance-y, here's a bird channeling its inner Michael Jackson. Stay Engaged Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com and follow along on Twitter and Facebook. A friend forward this to you? Subscribe here. 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