Nearly two years ago, Georgia found itself at the center of the U.S. political universe when two Senate races – one special election and a regularly scheduled one – ended in runoffs and, consequently, left control of the Senate undecided.
Two months later, Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) emerged victorious from those runoffs, giving Democrats the 50 seats they needed to take control of the upper chamber.
Now, with polls showing a tight race between Warnock and Republican nominee Herschel Walker, strategists and political observers are confronting the very real possibility that the Senate race in Georgia could once again head into overtime.
The playing field: Despite Warnock leading Walker in most public polls for months, most surveys show Warnock falling short of the majority support he'll need to clinch an outright victory in November. At the same time, allegations that Walker paid for his now-ex-girlfriend to have an abortion more than a decade ago haven't appeared to derail his campaign entirely. The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows the two candidates separated by just 4 percentage points.
Also critical to the race is the presence of a Libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver, whom polls show scoring anywhere from 2 to 4 percent of the vote. While that may seem insignificant, it could be enough to prevent either Warnock or Walker from reaching the 50-percent-plus-one-vote margin needed to win the November election.
"We're hoping for the best, but it's definitely something we are fully preparing for," Stephen Lawson, a Republican strategist who is working with a Walker-aligned PAC, 34N22, told The Hill on Tuesday.
"If it does end up going to a runoff, no matter who comes in first or second, I think it's going to be a jump ball and I think there's a good chance that it ends up deciding the fate of the Senate again. A Georgia runoff redux, if you will."
A quick turnaround: Unlike Georgia's last runoffs, which took place more than two months after Election Day 2020, a new state elections law approved last year shortens the runoff period from nine weeks to four. If neither Warnock nor Walker win a majority on Nov. 8, they'll head into a hectic month-long campaign sprint that will culminate in a Dec. 6 runoff election.
Still time: Of course, Election Day is still nearly a month away and the Georgia Senate race has been anything but calm. For Walker, in particular, the final stretch before Election Day has been especially trying. While he's denied the abortion allegations and threated to sue the news outlet that first reported them, the accusations have since snowballed.
On Tuesday, The Washington Post's Annie Linskey and Alice Crites reported that the woman whom Walker allegedly paid to have an abortion in 2009 had to "repeatedly press the former football star who is now the Republican Senate nominee in Georgia for funds to pay" for the procedure. In a separate interview with ABC News Live anchor Linsey Davis aired on Tuesday, Walker offered another denial of the allegations against him.
"She's lying. Yes, she's lying. Yes, she's lying," he said, later adding: "Flat-out denial. Lie. Lie. Lie. Lie."
Meanwhile, a super PAC backing Walker is seeking to highlight domestic violence allegations against Warnock, launching a new ad on Tuesday featuring recently uncovered bodycam footage of the senator's ex-wife during an altercation in March 2020.
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