Campaign Report — All eyes on Iowa

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View Online Campaign Report Campaign Report The Big Story  All eyes on Iowa GOP presidential hopefuls are intensifying their focus on the Hawkeye State's caucus, as the Republican field narrows and the election inches closer.  ©  AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File Happy Halloween!   Over the weekend, former Vice President Pence Mike Pence announced he was suspending his presidential campaign after he was unable to gain traction in the crowded field. Pence had some sway among Iowa's culturally conservative GOP base, but it was not enough for him to gain traction over the rest of the field.     In fact, a new poll out of Iowa continues to show former President Trump dominating the field in Iowa. According to an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey released on Monday, Trump holds a lead among likely GOP caucus-goers, with 43 percent saying he was their first choice.   Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley tied for second place with 16 percent. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott came in third place with 7 percent support, while former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy tied for fourth place with 4 percent. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson received 1 and 3 percent, respectively.     Despite Trump's dominance, the other candidates and their allies are not giving up on the first-in-the-nation contest. On Monday, the advocacy group And To The Republic, which is supporting DeSantis, rolled out a six-figure ad campaign in Iowa hitting Trump over his criticism of six week abortion bans. Meanwhile, Scott said on Monday that it's "Iowa or bust" for his campaign.     "We are excited about where we are," Scott said on the Hugh Hewitt Show. "We have made the decision that it's Iowa or bust for us, and I'm looking forward to being there."     The campaign season is also in full swing in the early primary state of New Hampshire as well.     On Monday, President Biden's supporters launched a write-in campaign for the Granite State's Democratic primary after the president declined to put his name on the ballot.   The "Write-In Joe Biden" campaign describes itself as a "private, grassroots" effort. Biden's campaign has said the president wants to take part in the primary, but is following rules set by the Democratic National Committee, which placed South Carolina in front of New Hampshire as the first in the nation primary state.   Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, we're Julia Manchester and Julia Mueller. Each week we track the key stories you need to know to stay ahead of the 2024 election and who will set the agenda in Washington.  Did someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here. Essential Reads  Key election stories and other recent campaign coverage: Dean Phillips 'disappointed' in Clyburn criticism over New Hampshire primary Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who last week announced his presidential campaign, hit back at criticism from Democrats who have expressed outrage over the congressman's decision to appear in the New Hampshire primary before South Carolina, despite a primary calendar reshuffle placing the Palmetto State as the party's first contest.  Speaking to Fox News on Tuesday, Phillips said "anybody who thinks that somehow … that …  Full Story Biden campaign uses Trump 2016 rally with Michigan autoworkers to tout record President Biden's reelection campaign marked the seven years since former President Trump told Michigan autoworkers that plants in their state wouldn't be lost, using the anniversary to tout Biden's own record on the matter. Trump, while campaigning in 2016, said at a rally in Michigan that the state wouldn’t lose any of its plants if he were elected. But during his presidency, General Motors closed production at multiple …  Full Story Pelosi endorses Mondaire Jones in key New York primary Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is endorsing former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) in a critical battleground House race. Jones is running against Liz Whitmer Gereghty, a small business owner and the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), in New York’s 17th Congressional District to take on GOP Rep. Mike Lawler (N.Y.). Pelosi is the most prominent Democrat so far to wade into what’s expected to be a messy primary. …  Full Story The Countdown  Upcoming news themes and events we're watching: 7 days until Kentucky and Mississippi's gubernatorial general elections  76 days until the Iowa presidential caucuses  370 days until the 2024 general election  On Our Watch  Colorado lawsuit pushes to block Trump from ballot  © Greg Nash A trial began this week for a lawsuit aimed at barring former President Trump from the ballot in Colorado for the 2024 presidential election.   As The Hill's Ella Lee reports, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) and six Colorado voters are arguing that Trump "incited a violent mob" to attack the U.S. Capitol and interrupt the peaceful transfer of power on Jan. 6, 2021, after he lost his 2020 reelection bid — and that Trump's actions should disqualify him from running again under the 14th Amendment's "insurrection clause."    That section of the Constitution prohibits people who swore an oath to the Constitution from holding office if they "engaged in insurrection."   Lawyers for the plaintiffs contend Trump meets that threshold.     Trump's team, on the other hand, has argued the lawsuit is politically motivated as Trump campaigns to return to the White House in 2024.   He's the clear front-runner of the GOP field, boasting a significant lead over the rest of his party competitors.     The judge overseeing the matter rejected an attempt from Trump's team earlier this month to dismiss the lawsuit. Trump faces similar efforts to keep him off the ballot in Michigan and Minnesota.     Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) testified on Monday as a witness in the Colorado trial, saying that he and others "connected the president's tweets to our own safety in the chamber" on Jan. 6.     The hearing in Colorado state court is expected to continue for about a week. Colorado Judge Sarah Wallace will be the sole decider of the bench trial's outcome.   In Other News  Branch out with a different read from The Hill: Trump tops Haley by 31 points in new survey of South Carolina Republicans Former President Trump leads fellow GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley by a comfortable 31-point margin in the early-voting state of South Carolina, where Haley was once governor, according to a poll released Tuesday.  The CNN poll found found Trump in the lead in the Republican field with 53 percent support, followed by Haley with 22 percent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came in third with 11 percent, while home-state … Full Story Biden's support among Arab American voters plunges since Israel-Hamas war President Biden's support among Arab American voters has sharply decreased since the Israel-Hamas war, plummeting to dismal and unprecedented numbers. Support for his upcoming reelection bid from Arab Americans dropped by 42 percentage points, from 59 percent in 2020 to 17 percent, according to a new poll conducted by the Arab American Institute.  The poll found that if the election were held today, 40 percent … Full Story Around the Nation  Local and state headlines regarding campaigns and elections: 'Let Dean be Dean'? Muted reaction from Minnesota Biden backers as Phillips looks to make a splash in New Hampshire (MinnPost)   The House's 2 top leaders have never come from the same state--until now. Will it work? (The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate)  Beshear tied for most popular Democratic governor among Trump voters, survey finds (The Lexington Herald Leader)   What We're Reading  Election news we've flagged from other outlets: Trump's old-age issue in spotlight as he mocks Biden (Axios)  Harris had a contingency plan for campus protests over Israel (Politico)   Outraised and embattled, Lauren Boebert heads back to Colorado with a revamped campaign strategy (The Associated Press)   Elsewhere Today  Key stories on The Hill right now: Senate confirms Jack Lew as Israel ambassador The Senate on Tuesday confirmed former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew as the new U.S. ambassador to Israel, setting him up to take on the critical role amid the country’s battle against Hamas. Senators voted 53-43, with two Republicans joining with every present Democrat. "With Israel defending itself against Hamas, this ambassadorship … Read more Trump signaled to extremist groups on Jan. 6, experts testify in 14th Amendment case  The attorneys attempting to paint former President Trump as an insurrectionist in order to get him banned from the ballot in Colorado in 2024 focused their case Tuesday on signals he sent to extremist groups who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6.  Attorney Eric Olson, representing the plaintiffs, relied on expert testimony from an extremism … Read more What People Think  Opinions related to campaigns and elections submitted to The Hill: Why the war in the Middle East is politically risky for Biden  Dean Phillips's vibe-killing presidential bid only benefits Republicans Press: Beware! MAGA Mike wields his Bible    You're all caught up. See you next time!  Check out The Hill's Campaign page for the latest coverage. Like this newsletter? 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